SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Hot! Hot! Hot!

[Yankeegirl]

We also had some rain here tonight too.. around 8 pm.... It was quite unexpected! Maybe a sign of things to come in the next few days?!

[southerngale]

Geez Louise... NWS sure has a lot of rain in our forecast. I wonder what's beyond the 7-day. At least we got some swimming in this past Sunday. There was only like a 20% chance of rain, and of course, it rained! But there wasn't any T&L with it and it was pretty brief, so it didn't mess up anything.

Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm.

Thursday: Rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 85. Southeast wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 85. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. East wind around 5 mph becoming south. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74.

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Edit.... rain, and more rain


Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
358 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-252100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
358 AM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

...SOAKING RAINS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT...WHICH PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER GULF
COAST STATES LAST SUNDAY...HAS SINCE STALLED...AND IS NOW
RETURNING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WEST-TO-EAST WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOUISIANA COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

RICH CARIBBEAN AIR...RIDING IN ON INCREASING GULF BREEZES...WILL
UPGLIDE THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AT
FIRST. THE RAINS WILL FOLLOW...STARTING ON THURSDAY.

MEAN AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH ON
THURSDAY...AND WILL AVERAGE ABOUT AN INCH ON FRIDAY.

BECAUSE THIS INCOMING CARIBBEAN AIR IS UNSTABLE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FOUND WITHIN THE MODERATE RAIN SHIELD.
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL RANGE
FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES.

ALL INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE UPCOMING RAIN
EVENT ...WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$

[vbhoutex]

This is the latest from Jeff

After a few dry days heavy rains will return today and really ramp up Thursday and Friday.



Discussion:



Upper trough as once yet developed over C TX with surge of deep tropical moisture associated with a tropical wave moving NW across the Gulf of Mexico. Weak frontal boundary that passed through the area Sunday is retreating NNE this morning and currently extends from near Columbus to W Galveston Island. Moist and unstable air mass SW of this boundary will surge into the rest of the area by early afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing. Models are aggressive in surging 2.2-2.4 inch PWS into the area overnight and given the looks of GPS sounder over the Gulf and the water vapor this seems reasonable. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to be the result Thursday through Sunday as upper trough only moves from near San Antonio to the Rio Grande in that time period.



Given deep moist profile, high PWS, and good upper air divergence the threat for heavy to excessive rainfall is high the next 48-72 hours. Average rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common by Saturday with isolated totals of 4-6 inches…would not be surprised if somebody picked up a quick 10-12 inches during that same time. Similar patterns this summer over TX have produced some very impressive short term rainfall totals.



Tropics:



NAM continues to spin up a tropical storm over the western Gulf of Mexico and track it toward the TX coast. Latest run shows a 1003mb surface low moving inland along the upper TX coast Saturday. GFS nor any other global models with the exception of the CMC are showing any development in this area. The NAM is usually a poor tropical model…with that said there has been a nice expansion and deepening of thunderstorms this morning over the Bay of Campeche. I would not be all that surprised to see a surface low attempt to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico given a decently favorable position of the tropical wave axis SE of the upper trough over TX…which could help vent convection. NAM is likely way overdone and the end result will still be nearly the same…lots of rainfall over TX. Should anything tropical try to spin up wind/seas/tides will need significant adjustments.

[srainhoutx]

afternoon AFD from HOU/GAL WFO is out. Very interesting wording for our area...



000
FXUS64 KHGX 251947
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
247 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN OFF THE GULF
AND INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. IMPRESSIVE CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER
CRP/BRO CWA BORDER. MOISTURE RECOVERING QUICKLY WITH 1.5" PW OVER
THE CWA RISEN TO THIS MORNING AT LFK HAD 1.06" AND VCT 1.99" AND
BY 2 PM STILL HIGHER. LL FLOW STRENGTHENING AS WELL AS UPPER SW
FLOW ACROSS SETX. VERY IMPRESSIVE MASS OF SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPHECHE AT 18Z...GOING THROUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS BUT IT
DOES HAVE SOME STRONG UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION ON THE NORTH SIDE AS
THIS FLOW OVER SETX/LA STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WITH THIS ASIDE VERY IMPRESSIVE PW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE
SPREADING NORTH AND SHOULD EDGE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
2.2 TO 2.5" PW WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ADDING TREMENDOUSLY TO THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
(NAM PROGS PW NEAR 2.65") SEEMS LIKELY THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE NEEDED EITHER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT SO FOLLOWING SHIFTS
MAY BE ISSUING ONE. [b](IF THE NAM IS CORRECT WITH THE FORECAST OF
THIS GULF SYSTEM GETTING ORGANIZED RAIN THREAT WOULD BE EVEN
HIGHER.) SO FAR THE GFS IS JUST PROGGING A BIG INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH NO ORGANIZATION. TPC ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
IMPRESSIVE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS SURGE (SEE RECENT TWDAT). THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND PERHAPS
SUNDAY. STAY TUNED ON THIS.

IN THE EXTENDED THE MOISTURE SLOW DRIES OUT SUNDAY-TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH TEXAS AND ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES DOWN INTO TX/LA.

WITH ALL OF THE RAIN SHOULD COME SOME LOWER TEMPERATURES AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
45

[Ptarmigan]

This is the latest from Jeff

After a few dry days heavy rains will return today and really ramp up Thursday and Friday.



Discussion:



Upper trough as once yet developed over C TX with surge of deep tropical moisture associated with a tropical wave moving NW across the Gulf of Mexico. Weak frontal boundary that passed through the area Sunday is retreating NNE this morning and currently extends from near Columbus to W Galveston Island. Moist and unstable air mass SW of this boundary will surge into the rest of the area by early afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing. Models are aggressive in surging 2.2-2.4 inch PWS into the area overnight and given the looks of GPS sounder over the Gulf and the water vapor this seems reasonable. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to be the result Thursday through Sunday as upper trough only moves from near San Antonio to the Rio Grande in that time period.



Given deep moist profile, high PWS, and good upper air divergence the threat for heavy to excessive rainfall is high the next 48-72 hours. Average rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches will be common by Saturday with isolated totals of 4-6 inches…would not be surprised if somebody picked up a quick 10-12 inches during that same time. Similar patterns this summer over TX have produced some very impressive short term rainfall totals.



Tropics:



NAM continues to spin up a tropical storm over the western Gulf of Mexico and track it toward the TX coast. Latest run shows a 1003mb surface low moving inland along the upper TX coast Saturday. GFS nor any other global models with the exception of the CMC are showing any development in this area. The NAM is usually a poor tropical model…with that said there has been a nice expansion and deepening of thunderstorms this morning over the Bay of Campeche. I would not be all that surprised to see a surface low attempt to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico given a decently favorable position of the tropical wave axis SE of the upper trough over TX…which could help vent convection. NAM is likely way overdone and the end result will still be nearly the same…lots of rainfall over TX. Should anything tropical try to spin up wind/seas/tides will need significant adjustments.

That's what I am thinking too. I expect a heavy rain even this week.

[svrwx0503]

When I see the models forecasting PW's in the 2.4-2.6'' range it brings back memories of the October 16th, 2006 rain/tornado event. I believe the models forecasted pw values around 2.5'' with strong upper level support that helped organize the thunderstorms after dark on the 15th, with the event lasting all the way through the afternoon of the 16th. This should be a very interesting couple of days.

[Ptarmigan]

When I see the models forecasting PW's in the 2.4-2.6'' range it brings back memories of the October 16th, 2006 rain/tornado event. I believe the models forecasted pw values around 2.5'' with strong upper level support that helped organize the thunderstorms after dark on the 15th, with the event lasting all the way through the afternoon of the 16th. This should be a very interesting couple of days.

It should be. I remember the rain starting on the night of October 15th and raining all day on the 16th.

[svrwx0503]

Getting a very isolated buy heavy shower at my place right now. It can't be any more than about 3 miles wide but its producing a rain rate of 2.82'' per hour according to my vantage pro2. The atmosphere has definitely moistened up a lot from yesterday as the dew point is currently at 74, up from 63 yesterday at this time.

[Yankeegirl]

its thundering here, but no rain...its still off to my west...i guess its a sign of things to come later on!!!!! who has their ark built yet?

[KatDaddy]

Furiously building Yankee.....looks like an all-nighter to complete

We are in for another massive flood event regardless should a tropical system try to form. The wet Summer of 07 continues.

[Yankeegirl]

Getting another thunderstorm here, again... still no rain, but lots of thunder!

[Yankeegirl]

That thunder out to my west is just non stop... Who ever is getting it, is really getting it!!

[jasons2k]

No rain here yet but too bad another wet weekend. What a crazy non-summer.

[JenBayles]

Great.... just great.....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1014 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WILL MAKE A FEW FIRST PERIOD FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...BASICALLY BLANKETING ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH LIKELY
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST STORMS AT MID MORNING WERE TO THE
EAST OF THE HOUSTON AREA RIGHT AROUND LA PORTE. HARRIS COUNTY OEM RAIN
GAGES IN THIS AREA HAVE RECORDED RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 0.87" IN
FIFTEEN MINUTES! IT`S GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME
STABILIZATION TAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS THAT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THAT ARE ALREADY IN THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT ARE AT GREATEST RISK. WE WILL NEED TO ADDRESS
THE POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE WATCH FURTHER EAST IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALREADY OVER TWO INCHES AND ARE FORECASTED
TO RISE EVEN MORE. WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST OFFSHORE...BOTH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY LATER TONIGHT. THIS STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. STAY TUNED!

[crazycajuncane]

So far the rain has held off and it's been a sunny morning! I see the rain on the radar, but it's down there in the gulf. I guess it's moving a little slower than expected because we have a 60 - 70% chance of rain. I'm sure those pop ups will be lighting the radar this afternoon.

[JonathanBelles]

It looks horrible for you guys. Looks like a possible 6-8" to the west and including Houston. This looks like the worst case for 2/3 of texas. If this was only a few hundred miles east it would be a blessing. When it rains it pours.

[southerngale]

It's been raining steadily here for a while now. It's pretty heavy, with lots of thunder and lightning. I'm watching radar and you can see the big blob offshore, edging northward, but the storms onshore keep developing right over us.

[Tireman4]

Right now, at the corner of 610 South and 45 South, no rain. I am sure that will change later. It did rain earlier today.

[Yankeegirl]

You know, I am really not too impressed with this 70% chance of rain today... I think it rained here for like 5 minutes... and it was just a drizzle at that! Ya think this mess of rain out in central/west Texas is going to make its way over here?

[JenBayles]

Same here Yankee. And the 70% for tonite? They must be thinking waaaay later tonite by looking at the radar now. I just don't want flooding: gotta get down to Gulf Coast to see my Mag Pie! She's scared of thunder and we had to tell the docs and nurses that thunder gets her to shaking. Didn't want them thinking she was getting sicker.

Might as well tell everyone. See that cute little pup on my avatar? Tuesday morning Maggie must have been jumping at critters on the back fence. When she came down, she landed on a 3 foot bamboo plant stake. It went into her rear end and ended up under her ribcage. About 10" was impaled in Maggie's body with another 2 or 3 remaining outside. Tore her rectum and emptied some fecal contents which got peritonitis started. We didn't discover the injury for hours because she never made a sound. I woke up at 6:30 because she was panting so loudly. Already in shock, white gums, burning up with fever and shaking. Yeah, I freaked. And then freaked again when I saw the stick hanging out.

Long story short, Yankeegirl works for the one and only vet we could find in his office at that hour, and she also helped to remove the stick. Dr. A. couldn't get to the rectal tear to repair it, so as soon as Maggie was barely out of anesthesia, Dave and I sped down to Gulf Coast Veterinary Associates in the Galleria for yet another major surgery. They got the repair done but didn't hold out much hope for survival at first. So far, Maggie has surprised everyone with her progress. She's still very sick and will be in (barring any more complications) for up to 2 weeks. We are basket cases.