Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[chadtm80]

Can really see the storms expand over the last 12 hours

http://storm2k.org/wx/ham/eir12.htm

[jasons2k]

EWG,
storm motion is clear on radar and the center is in range of long range, its moving very close to due west imo...maybe a hair north of due west.

On GR3 out on Brownsville, I see a little vortex spinning north of the 12hr position moving west (About 120NM NE of KBRO), but the actual center of Erin is still too far away to discern its motion on radar.

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG,
storm motion is clear on radar and the center is in range of long range, its moving very close to due west imo...maybe a hair north of due west.

What radar are you looking at? It is certainly not visible yet on the Corpus or Brownsville long range loops. Also, even if it was visible, at that distance it is very hard to pinpoint motion and many times you end up seeing a false illusion. You need to wait until it comes within full range of the radar to get a better sense...something that likely will not happen until later today or tonight.

[Stormcenter]

In fact, looking at visibles it *appears* the center is more to the W the before...it looks exposed on the western side about to head inland.

W or WNW it really doesn't make that much of a difference now.
We are not talking about 170mph eye here now.

[Normandy]

EWG,
Look at visibles or Brownsville long range radar and look about 120 miles ESE of Corpus.....it appears to me the center is there as there is a definite twist on radar and an apparanet low level swirl on visibles. It might just be a smaller vortex or eddy but until I see otherwise thats where I think the center might be.....the convection further east just spit out an outflow boundary so im *guessing* the center isn't there.

[Bailey1777]

Pro-Met only please. Where would you center Erin at right now.

[sevenleft]

Pro-Met only please. Where would you center Erin at right now.

I'm not a pro, but I'm going to tell you where the center is anyway. It is at approximately 26.5N/94.5W. Normandy, you are not seeing the center on radar.

[Normandy]

I could be wrong, not saying my word is gospel.

LOL at one thing though. When you do this loop and put the forecast points on, its so far north of them its almost comical.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[cpdaman]

seven left i concur or at least within .2 degrees of that position you mentioned


the eddy normandy is seeing on radar DOES show up on visible

as a little twist in the second rain band, behind the first large rain band that just went through corpus christi

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

the eddy looks to show up around 27.3 95.7

[Normandy]

LOL in fact its ENE of the NHC landfall point....just shows how difficult these system are to truly predict.

On second look yes what I saw probably is an eddy....its a fairly strong one though and could easily be mistaken for a COC.

[sevenleft]

We'll see what happens..but it does seem like Erin will make landfall on the northern edge of the 11AM cone...

[Bailey1777]

Not looking to healthy.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Not looking to healthy.

looks fine to me.

[HouTXmetro]

If the Center is where I think it is, Erin might come shore North of Corpus and South of Matagorda Bay.

[jasons2k]

Take this with a grain of salt....it's JUST something to watch for.....but...

I've been studying the GR3 loop out of Brownsville and it looks like the center MAY, emphasize MAY, be coming into focus - and it's not where I (or the NHC) is expecting it....it looks like it's @ 27.2N and 93.8 west.

This location is much further north than the official location, so for now take this as just an observation and something I'll be watching to see if indeed the center is there or if it's just another transient swirl on the radar scope.

[Bailey1777]

Satellite presentation shows warming cloud tops and dry slots this is not a pretty picture. I see no strengthening of this system.

[lrak]

will the giant blob out in the Eastern GOM rap around Erin, or dissipate?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Satellite presentation shows cooling cloud tops and dry slots this is not a pretty picture. I see no strengthening of this system.

the structure looks good, and we are in the dirunal minimum. I think this has a good shot at strengthening tonight.

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html

[Air Force Met]

Pro-Met only please. Where would you center Erin at right now.

I'm not a pro, but I'm going to tell you where the center is anyway. It is at approximately 26.5N/94.5W. Normandy, you are not seeing the center on radar.

That is a very good guess. It's around 26.5/94.5 and the 12 hour motion is about 305 degrees. The 6 hr motion is about 315 degrees.

My call is the same as 2 days ago...b/w Port O'conner and CRP...but closer to CRP...maybe near Rockport.

[RL3AO]

Satellite presentation shows cooling cloud tops and dry slots this is not a pretty picture. I see no strengthening of this system.

Colder tops means stronger system. Do you mean warming tops?