skysummit wrote:Yea, but it's not moving it north into a ridge. On this run, just like the last few, the GFS has a ridge over Texas. That's why it's not sending it west. The EURO is seeing the opposite. One will be right, but which one?
The one good thing about this run is shear looks to really pick up as it's nearing the coast line.
Shear estimates in model prognostications are notoriously inaccurate. I don't have the reasons as to why people trust future shear values. Although the upper-air pattern is different than Humberto, the facts don't change. If the s/w pulls out quicker, it could actually aid better conditions over the system when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
Even if upper level winds are marginal, if it passes slowly over the loop current, all bets could be off. Hopefully something is there to provide enough shear to keep it in check.
