ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3801 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:31 am

ROCK wrote:NAM farther left through the straits....at 39hrs


Did I just see you use the NAM to predict storm location... Cmon ROCK... I know you know better than that..


LOL j/k.. glad to see you're going to stick around with us :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3802 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:33 am

12z NAM +48

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3803 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:37 am

yeah I will follow this one to the end.. :D ..not one of those guys who disappear when it turns the other way....its hurricane season and many of us live for this- 3 months out of the year....
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#3804 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:41 am

12z NAM +60

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#3805 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:44 am

NAM looks like its heading for Mobile.....Looks stronger this run as well. Yes, I know its the NAM
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#3806 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:45 am

I used to be a nam hugger many years go..Bottom line its fantastic with synoptics but horrible with TC trek....
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#3807 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:46 am

12z NAM +72

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#3808 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:47 am

Actually looks like its going to be near PNS/Destin...area....moving NNW to N...
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Re:

#3809 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:47 am

Vortex wrote:I used to be a nam hugger many years go..Bottom line its fantastic with synoptics but horrible with TC trek....



I'm with ya... 10/15 years ago all we had was the NAM, AVN, NOGAPS, and a horrible GFDL. These kids are spoiled with their fancy GFS and ECMWF
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#3810 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:49 am

Jevo, Rock, NAM really strengthens this as it gets closer to land....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3811 Postby Betrock » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:50 am

ROCK wrote:we are actually at the point where modeling is pointless for where this goes in the near term.......the only thing left IMO is intensity, and final landfall point other than the keys...time to watch the floaters for track thru the straits...


For those of us who live in the Tampabay area, Fort Myers, etc. we truly hope all here will continue to post the intermediate info, as final landfall is not all that matters.

The realy 'important' question is: how much lawn furniture do we have to haul inside?!
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#3812 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:53 am

12z NAM +84

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3813 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:02 am

Betrock wrote:
ROCK wrote:we are actually at the point where modeling is pointless for where this goes in the near term.......the only thing left IMO is intensity, and final landfall point other than the keys...time to watch the floaters for track thru the straits...


For those of us who live in the Tampabay area, Fort Myers, etc. we truly hope all here will continue to post the intermediate info, as final landfall is not all that matters.

The realy 'important' question is: how much lawn furniture do we have to haul inside?!


Heh those of us that post all of the pretty pictures are usually around till the end....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3814 Postby Portastorm » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:13 am

Alright gang, let's cut the non-model banter please and re-focus on computer models dealing with Isaac.
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#3815 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:18 am

I really think the surface trof the nam was showing the other day with a secondary low forming may have actually had some backing to it. looking at today with a elongated trough in the nw carrib. that may throw wrench in the models.
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#3816 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:33 am

Where is the current version of this map located?

http://oi48.tinypic.com/orih50.jpg

They have been sampling the ridge extensively so the BAM suite should be fairly accurate. What I'm interested in is there a divergence between the BAMS vs the BAMD. Once Isaac stacks up again north of Cuba there might be some variation in forecast track based on strength.
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#3817 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:33 am

HR18 has Isaac offshore inbtwn NC Cuba and the South Fl...
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#3818 Postby x-y-no » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:34 am

12z GFS hugging Cuba coast through first 18 hours:

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Re:

#3819 Postby artist » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:35 am

Nimbus wrote:Where is the current version of this map located?

http://oi48.tinypic.com/orih50.jpg

They have been sampling the ridge extensively so the BAM suite should be fairly accurate. What I'm interested in is there a divergence between the BAMS vs the BAMD. Once Isaac stacks up again north of Cuba there might be some variation in forecast track based on strength.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

here it is but I am having a hard time getting it to load right now. If I remember correctly when it does click on storm 09 on the tab for Isaac.
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#3820 Postby x-y-no » Sat Aug 25, 2012 10:37 am

30 hours heading towards central Keys

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