ATL: DORIAN - Models

[chris_fit]

Basically - Melbourne/Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral - Don't wanna be there according to many many of the 12Z Models

To add to that..... that's probably exactly where you WANT to be 3-4 days out LOL

[Steve]

4 pages of people arguing about consensus lol

Can we get back to posting the models please..

Would you say that is the consensus opinion?

haha how's it going Aric? What's your take on the shift

Lol.. what consensus?

I just want to see the plot of the ukmet. Im not home and nothing is loading on my phone

Not that complicated - He said it's a consensus that people get back to talking about models.

[Steve]

So GOM is starting to look less likely, but still possible?

14 yrs ago the Katrina models were looking VERY similar to these... remarkable similar.
I'm not going to be surprised on Sunday when the consensus points to the big bend area and then only to be pointing to MS coast on Monday.
All these models have struggled with verifying out beyond 18hrs with this storm... watch the chaos when it loses its steering current.
JMHO

I'm thinking that's not going to happen here and probably less than a 1% chance of even hitting west of Panama City if it ever makes it to the gulf anyway. Would have to stall and screw around for several days for it to be a consideration, and that's also extremely unlikely.

[StormingB81]

Basically - Melbourne/Cocoa Beach/Cape Canaveral - Don't wanna be there according to many many of the 12Z Models

To add to that..... that's probably exactly where you WANT to be 3-4 days out LOL

Well that’s where I live so....

[NDG]

HMON Landfall near Cocoa Beach (6z was Ft. Lauderdale, so huge shift north)

https://i.imgur.com/ANAoBTY.png

06z run was actually Vero Beach, not Ft Lauderdale!!!!

Edit: Sorry, I thought you were talking about the HWRF

[Bocadude85]

HMON Landfall near Cocoa Beach (6z was Ft. Lauderdale, so huge shift north)

https://i.imgur.com/ANAoBTY.png

06z run was actually Vero Beach, not Ft Lauderdale!!!!

The 6z HMON was landfall in Miami

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2019083006&fh=99

[Steve]

HMON Landfall near Cocoa Beach (6z was Ft. Lauderdale, so huge shift north)

https://i.imgur.com/ANAoBTY.png

06z run was actually Vero Beach, not Ft Lauderdale!!!!

Additionally, the 12z HMON brings about 1/2 the center onland (does roll across the cape) before riding what appears to be about 20 miles offshore up the coast.

And the EC is initialized

[HurricaneFrances04]

It seems more like a shift east as opposed to a shift north?

[BobHarlem]

12Z HWRF near Stuart, (6z was near Vero Beach) so a shift back south a little bit.

[NDG]

Last 5 00z Euro runs

https://media.giphy.com/media/mEmmsq7y8jrTNi7FLx/giphy.gif

Anything past its 72-96 hr forecast is going to be inconsistent. By no means the Euro is that good. But it is fairly good in its 72-96 hour compared to other models in that range, except when Dorian was a weak system and didn't see it strengthening and gaining latitude well before Hispaniola

Yes of course... but definitely has moved more east over time

After passing the VI the Euro has been doing pretty good within its 72 hr range. That's when I really pay attention to the Euro.

[petit_bois]

So GOM is starting to look less likely, but still possible?

14 yrs ago the Katrina models were looking VERY similar to these... remarkable similar.
I'm not going to be surprised on Sunday when the consensus points to the big bend area and then only to be pointing to MS coast on Monday.
All these models have struggled with verifying out beyond 18hrs with this storm... watch the chaos when it loses its steering current.
JMHO

I'm thinking that's not going to happen here and probably less than a 1% chance of even hitting west of Panama City if it ever makes it to the gulf anyway. Would have to stall and screw around for several days for it to be a consideration, and that's also extremely unlikely.

yep... that's what they were saying in 2005 too. I remember my local radio station weather guy giving our area the all clear as late as Friday afternoon. total Chaos came on Monday.

[USTropics]

4 pages of people arguing about consensus lol

Can we get back to posting the models please..

Would you say that is the consensus opinion?

haha how's it going Aric? What's your take on the shift

Lol.. what consensus?

I just want to see the plot of the ukmet. Im not home and nothing is loading on my phone

[chris_fit]

Speaking of the EURO - HERE WE GOOOOO

[Jevo]

Would you say that is the consensus opinion?

haha how's it going Aric? What's your take on the shift

Lol.. what consensus?

I just want to see the plot of the ukmet. Im not home and nothing is loading on my phone

Not that complicated - He said it's a consensus that people get back to talking about models.

That seems to be the trend...
hahah alright that was the last one.. Here comes our friend from Europe

[Blown Away]

12z Euro initializes @30 miles south of 12z...

[AutoPenalti]

Euro 12z Initializing...

Already a nudge south of 06z

[chris_fit]

[AutoPenalti]

There's a shortwave developing in Missouri.


...and it disappears.

[Evil Jeremy]

Slightly SW of the last 12z run so far

[Steve]

14 yrs ago the Katrina models were looking VERY similar to these... remarkable similar.
I'm not going to be surprised on Sunday when the consensus points to the big bend area and then only to be pointing to MS coast on Monday.
All these models have struggled with verifying out beyond 18hrs with this storm... watch the chaos when it loses its steering current.
JMHO

I'm thinking that's not going to happen here and probably less than a 1% chance of even hitting west of Panama City if it ever makes it to the gulf anyway. Would have to stall and screw around for several days for it to be a consideration, and that's also extremely unlikely.

yep... that's what they were saying in 2005 too. I remember my local radio station weather guy giving our area the all clear as late as Friday afternoon. total Chaos came on Monday.

Storm2k had it though. I caught the early cycle 18z guidance that Friday afternoon, and it was on. Next move was the NHC moving the landfall point 200 miles. That's seriously not going to happen this time. I'd bet any amount of money it doesn't cross 85 in the next 5 days. Most models don't get into the Gulf at all (ICON and possibly HWRF if it ran longer, but still unlikely). EC is the next chance.