ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[lrak]

A burst of convection is just starting to rap around the northern part of the center.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[curtadams]

Congrats to possibly the biggest tease ever to travel the ocean! After teasing all the way from Africa she finally gives it up off the coast of Mexico. Actually after the banding fizzled last night I was expecting *another* day of iffy recon. Anybody got a pic of pink bubblegum cigars?

59 SFMR with 40 flight level? Is the SFMR acting up again? Is this the same plane that had funny SFMR readings in Cristobal yesterday?

[Hyperstorm]

Remember everyone, that the system has just developed a well-defined LLC based on Air Force Recon and the NHC is likely working with the government of Mexico as I expect tropical storm watches and warnings to be issued for the Yucatan.

[Cyclone1]

Either way, it's still 04L on NRL.

[Brent]

Anybody got a pic of pink bubblegum cigars?

[Seadootoo]

Either way, it's still 04L on NRL.

Its 04L Dolly @NRL

[Downdraft]

So where's the upgrade?

[CrazyC83]

Current recon data supports 45 kt, discounting those high ratings.

[CrazyC83]

So where's the upgrade?

Probably a special advisory around 11:30 am.

[southerngale]

"I know this has been mentioned a few times, but don't think it has really been answered in detail. What are the chances that the llc will fade away/relocate or develop a new center under the big mass of storms further to the NE before the day is over.? Looking at the visibles seems to be some twisting to that complex as well?"

Can you say -removed-.

Come on, now. Stuff like this discourages some of our newer members (and even longtime members) from asking questions.

[TTheriot1975]

SO anyone know where the LLC really is?

[cpdaman]

if everyone would stop hitting refresh on the nhc website every 3 seconds then perhaps this could help speed things along

[LAwxrgal]

Oh, it's definitely Dolly. That's not even a question at this point. They want to make sure they have all their data together. They're being very careful with the wording on this advisory, they don't want to cause a big panic... yet.

[RL3AO]

SO anyone know where the LLC really is?

18N 84W

[bvigal]

READ BACK... we knew at 9:15 it was dolly
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1335 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080720 1200 UTC

For someone who asked, Bertha has gone X, last advisory just issued

Plane still flying, so they are awaiting latest data to issue advisory, as Brian said, BE PATIENT

[Just Joshing You]

Extratropical Storm Bertha's windfield is crazy.

[HURAKAN]

READ BACK... we knew at 9:15 it was dolly
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1335 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080720 1200 UTC

For someone who asked, Bertha has gone X, last advisory just issued

Plane still flying, so they are awaiting latest data to issue advisory, as Brian said, BE PATIENT

URNT15 KWBC 201508
NOAA2 05AAA INVEST HDOB 37 20080720
145830 1843N 08310W 9574 00488 0120 +230 +220 126041 041 042 004 03
145900 1845N 08310W 9378 00673 0121 +225 +212 125040 041 999 999 03
145930 1847N 08311W 9050 00982 0120 +208 +199 123036 037 042 003 00
150000 1848N 08313W 8684 01337 0116 +190 +185 119034 034 041 003 00
150030 1850N 08314W 8411 01611 0112 +177 +172 118032 033 040 002 00
150100 1851N 08315W 8216 01812 0111 +166 +163 124032 032 039 003 00
150130 1853N 08317W 8024 02012 0110 +156 +138 124033 034 041 002 00
150200 1855N 08318W 7836 02212 0110 +143 +126 127033 033 039 001 00
150230 1856N 08320W 7646 02419 0107 +133 +116 133033 033 038 002 00
150300 1858N 08321W 7457 02629 0103 +123 +107 137032 033 038 001 00
150330 1900N 08323W 7273 02839 0096 +116 +107 131025 029 038 002 00
150400 1901N 08324W 7079 03066 0095 +102 +101 134016 020 040 002 00
150430 1903N 08326W 6892 03288 0090 +093 +075 143012 013 038 002 00
150500 1905N 08327W 6718 03499 0089 +082 +050 140009 011 038 001 00
150530 1906N 08329W 6561 03694 0087 +070 +048 134008 009 038 002 00
150600 1908N 08330W 6430 03858 0084 +060 +046 106012 015 040 003 00
150630 1909N 08331W 6295 04032 0075 +055 +033 091013 015 039 001 00
150700 1911N 08333W 6207 04147 0073 +050 +030 090012 012 039 001 00
150730 1912N 08334W 6163 04207 0075 +044 +032 091013 014 040 001 00
150800 1914N 08335W 6115 04270 0078 +039 +028 094015 015 040 000 00

Mission is over as the plane is ascending and turning towards Biloxi.

[tpr1967]

So where's the upgrade?

Probably a special advisory around 11:30 am.

Maybe there talking about going staight to huricane strength.

[HURAKAN]

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

GMZ089-202130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18.4N 84.2W 1008 MB AT 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
IS MOVING NW AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50
KT. DOLLY WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19.7N 86.3W EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE
TONIGHT...TO NEAR 21.1N 89.5W MON MORNING...THEN INTO THE SW
GULF NEAR 22.2N 92.2W MON NIGHT...AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
NEAR 23.0N 94.0W TUE MORNING...AND CONTINUE NW ACROSS THE SW
PORTION OF THE NW GULF ON WED. DOLLY IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE FAR WRN GULF THU. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
GULF AND SW PART OF THE W GULF BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE...AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN GULF WED AND THU. WEAK
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF THROUGH THU.

[RL3AO]