Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Portastorm]

MAMMOTH SNOWSTORM FOR CENTRAL TEXAS AT 384HRS ON 06z GFS PARA FEB 1ST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It WILL happen. #MagicOfFebruaryInTexas

There you go! That's the spirit. Hey, it could happen. Right?!

[PTrackerLA]

Absolutely rotten winter of 2016-2017 continues for my area. Another whole week of daytime temps in the middle of winter in the mid to upper 70s. Won't fall below 60 degrees all week either. The carnage of the most damaging freeze in years continues to grow in my yard. I had plants that easily survived the heavy ice storms and below 20 temperatures of three winters ago turn completely brown this time around. Could it have been the high winds combined with low 20s? Either way everything is ugly and the weather sucks .

You're complaining about warm and cold temps at the same time. As for the cold, it's important that plants are thoroughly watered prior to a hard freeze. The increased moisture content will help to prevent freeze damage, as chilling the moisture inside the plants takes a good bit of energy. Strong winds would remove moisture from plants, making them more susceptible to freeze damage. The only freeze damage in my yard was the bananas. Nothing could have saved them with a low of 22. They're nearly 20 ft tall - too tall to cover, and watering them wouldn't have helped. They'll be back soon, though, as long as there are roots underground.

I'm bemoaning the unusually hard freeze we had, but yes also complaining about the much above normal temps . I'd prefer just seasonable winter temps is what I should say, with some light freezes here and there. If it's going to get into the low 20s I'd prefer to have some frozen precipitation to go around. I was out of town for the freeze so I was unable to protect anything. Lost a very mature potted rubber plant but I'm sure I can get it to grow back. It was also odd seeing bottle brush trees rather burnt looking, I don't remember ever seeing cold damage on them before. Also several shrubs that I couldn't tell you the name of but are completely brown now as well as several gardenias that are completely killed. I just found the amount of damage to be odd and the fact that it's staying so warm since that just seems cruel when it feels like April.

[gpsnowman]

Absolutely rotten winter of 2016-2017 continues for my area. Another whole week of daytime temps in the middle of winter in the mid to upper 70s. Won't fall below 60 degrees all week either. The carnage of the most damaging freeze in years continues to grow in my yard. I had plants that easily survived the heavy ice storms and below 20 temperatures of three winters ago turn completely brown this time around. Could it have been the high winds combined with low 20s? Either way everything is ugly and the weather sucks .

You're complaining about warm and cold temps at the same time. As for the cold, it's important that plants are thoroughly watered prior to a hard freeze. The increased moisture content will help to prevent freeze damage, as chilling the moisture inside the plants takes a good bit of energy. Strong winds would remove moisture from plants, making them more susceptible to freeze damage. The only freeze damage in my yard was the bananas. Nothing could have saved them with a low of 22. They're nearly 20 ft tall - too tall to cover, and watering them wouldn't have helped. They'll be back soon, though, as long as there are roots underground.

I'm bemoaning the unusually hard freeze we had, but yes also complaining about the much above normal temps . I'd prefer just seasonable winter temps is what I should say, with some light freezes here and there. If it's going to get into the low 20s I'd prefer to have some frozen precipitation to go around. I was out of town for the freeze so I was unable to protect anything. Lost a very mature potted rubber plant but I'm sure I can get it to grow back. It was also odd seeing bottle brush trees rather burnt looking, I don't remember ever seeing cold damage on them before. Also several shrubs that I couldn't tell you the name of but are completely brown now as well as several gardenias that are completely killed. I just found the amount of damage to be odd and the fact that it's staying so warm since that just seems cruel when it feels like April.

You are torn between two lovers, feeling like a fool. Loving both of them is breaking all the rules. Torn between two lovers, feeling like a fool. Loving them both is breaking all the rules. Mary MacGregor once told me about this type of thing. A very wise woman.

[JDawg512]

I am considering running for Governor.

My platform will be very narrowly focused, shallow and selfish. Cut down every mountain cedar/juniper tree in Texas. Outlaw them.

I pray the rain will stop this madness, it's killing me.

I'm in ... let me go file the paperwork now for the "Draft dhweather" campaign.

IIRC, juniper is not a native plant. Count me in.

It is indeed native...

http://www.wildflower.org/plants/result.php?id_plant=JUAS

Though a fragrant, evergreen, and picturesque tree, Ashe Juniper pollen, like that of many junipers, is very irritating to people with cedar allergies, so where the tree occurs in large concentrations, as in central Texas, it often becomes hated and targeted for removal, with various, sometimes invented, rationalizations given for doing so. Ashe Juniper is native from southern Missouri south through Oklahoma and then down through central and west Texas to northern Chihuahua. It was abundant in central Texas when the earliest European explorers arrived, having existed in the region at least since the Pleistocene. It is thus an integral part of the native flora.

So far since this rain event began last week, 2.42" has fallen in my yard. I'm quite pleased with how January is turning out considering it is on average one of the drier months of the year. Looking forward to more rain this week.

[Cpv17]

Man this weather is so blah. Keep hearing about all this cold air coming in the long range, but not seeing it on any of the models. I at least hope we'll get some good soaking rains around here in SE TX this week. Been since the beginning of December since we've had any measurable rains around here.

[Ntxw]

Man this weather is so blah. Keep hearing about all this cold air coming in the long range, but not seeing it on any of the models. I at least hope we'll get some good soaking rains around here in SE TX this week. Been since the beginning of December since we've had any measurable rains around here.

This warm period was well forecasted, it just seems like forever because we saw it from far range. Mid January warmth...pattern change is towards the end of the month and early Feb

[Ntxw]

The past couple of years, super cells for some reason have loved moving up I-35 in NTX. Been a magnet

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/821071597377351680

[TheProfessor]

The past couple of years, super cells for some reason have loved moving up I-35 in NTX. Been a magnet

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status ... 7377351680

I've always called I-35 a tornado magnet. Some of the strongest tornadoes (F/EF-5s) have occurred along or fairly close to the Highway. Jarrell, Moore 99/13, El Reno, Andover, Waco tornado 1953, Topeka Kansas F5 tornado 1966(My mom was almost a year old then living in Topeka). I'm sure there are some missing, but I find it kind of interesting that there have been that many on an almost due north imaginary line. I'm not sure if there's a location that has a similar occurrence.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Bon voyage La Niña

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

[bubba hotep]

Bon voyage La Niña

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

Euro is all in on this being the end of La Nina

[Brent]

0z GFS has a fantasy winter storm beyond 300 hours

January 30th-31st

Yes yes I know... spare me.

In sooner terms... I'm eyeing flying to Denver next Monday or so to see snow up there since I'm on vacation at work then. Consistently showing a storm. Yeah I know, sad times...

[arizona_sooner]

Hey I'm visiting Lake Charles this week and am surprised by the amount of damage to foliage I'm seeing in neighborhoods around town. I don't remember seeing this much during the years I lived here back in the 80s. On the other hand, where I live in the Phoenix area, we haven't been anywhere close to a freeze this year - the lawn in my yard is super green and lush!

[Ntxw]

Not the thermocline slope you would put for a Nina either. Aside from a shallow pool of cool near 3.4, it's warm below the surface.



Don't forget to check in on the ENSO thread every now and then!

ENSO Thread

[somethingfunny]

The past couple of years, super cells for some reason have loved moving up I-35 in NTX. Been a magnet

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status ... 7377351680

I've always called I-35 a tornado Magnet. Some of the strongest tornadoes (F/EF-5s) have occurred along or fairly close to the Highway. Jarrell, Moore 99/13, El Reno, Andover, Waco tornado 1953, Topeka Kansas F5 tornado 1966(My mom was almost a year old then living in Topeka). I'm sure there are some missing, but I find it kind of interesting that there have been that many on an almost due north imaginary line. I'm not sure if there's a location that has a similar occurrence.

Remember that the EF scale is a damage scale - you can't have an EF4/5 if it just moves through a field or a forest. It's not a coincidence that the "strongest" tornadoes tend to hit populated areas with a higher density of strong structures to demonstrate EF4/5 devastation upon... and those structures will always be clustered around imaginary lines like I-35.

Have you noticed that there are far more frequent "radar-indicated" tornado warnings issued in the immediate vicinity of the DFW Metroplex.... within about 50 miles of the NEXRAD radar location? We can't see tornadoes embedded within QLCS line segments in Young, Lamar, or Anderson Counties the same way we can see them in Johnson or Collin Counties. They;re there though... just not reported as frequently as they are in the densely populated areas along I-35.

[TheProfessor]

The past couple of years, super cells for some reason have loved moving up I-35 in NTX. Been a magnet

[]https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/821071597377351680[]

I've always called I-35 a tornado Magnet. Some of the strongest tornadoes (F/EF-5s) have occurred along or fairly close to the Highway. Jarrell, Moore 99/13, El Reno, Andover, Waco tornado 1953, Topeka Kansas F5 tornado 1966(My mom was almost a year old then living in Topeka). I'm sure there are some missing, but I find it kind of interesting that there have been that many on an almost due north imaginary line. I'm not sure if there's a location that has a similar occurrence.

Remember that the EF scale is a damage scale - you can't have an EF4/5 if it just moves through a field or a forest. It's not a coincidence that the "strongest" tornadoes tend to hit populated areas with a higher density of strong structures to demonstrate EF4/5 devastation upon... and those structures will always be clustered around imaginary lines like I-35.

Have you noticed that there are far more frequent "radar-indicated" tornado warnings issued in the immediate vicinity of the DFW Metroplex.... within about 50 miles of the NEXRAD radar location? We can't see tornadoes embedded within QLCS line segments in Young, Lamar, or Anderson Counties the same way we can see them in Johnson or Collin Counties. They;re there though... just not reported as frequently as they are in the densely populated areas along I-35.

Yes, I'm sure some of it has to do with population, but I think a lot of it has to do with it being that I-35 is in the right smack middle of Tornado Ally. You could also say the same things about I-35 too, there's a lot of the highway from San Antonio to Kansas City that are open space with very little structures if at all, I'm sure there have been many violent tornadoes that moves west to east that have been missed. Some these tornadoes I mentioned occurred before populations sky rocketed. Andover had a population of 4286 in 1991, it looks like Jarrell had about 400 people around 1990, I couldn't find how big Topeka was in 1966 but Waco had about 84,000 in 1952 so it was the largest of these cities. It would take a while to research, but I'm not as sure there are any north/south interstate high ways that have seen as many Severe tornadoes. I wan't even considering EF/F4,3s.

[Ntxw]

EPS now go far enough out to the end of the month and colder 850s showing up with pressures higher. Ridging in Canada also retrograding as well as Alaskan trough. Big +PNA/-EPO on the GEFS. Still looking at late Jan, early Feb for return of arctic air.

[bubba hotep]

Ensembles continue to look good beyond D7 for cooler weather. Differences in how they handle the MJO are causing some issues in the longer range. Maybe that will get clearer over the next 7 to 10 days.

[CaptinCrunch]

Bon voyage La Niña

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

Yep, SST readings back in the 3 week of December indicated we had moved back to a ENSO neutral with a Nino 3.4 reading of -0.3
If you go back and look at the SST outlooks back in October they were forecasting the Weak La Nina to fade out by late December into early January.

[srainhoutx]

Cold weather lovers need to start watching the Ensembles. The morning Updated GEFS Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs have some memorable years in the analogs. I particularly like seeing the 1960 analog showing up. Early February brought a hefty snow event to SE Texas...

[bubba hotep]

Cold weather lovers need to start watching the Ensembles. The morning Updated GEFS Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs have some memorable years in the analogs. I particularly like seeing the 1960 analog showing up. Early February brought a hefty snow event to SE Texas...

It certainly looks like there is room for things to trend colder as we move towards February. A lot hinges on the MJO and how that plays out.