ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.imgur.com/fhHBU3h.gif

That loop looks like something maybe trying to wrap around the NW side

It has wrapped to the best of its ability. It’s wrapped into this extremely small core.

[eastcoastFL]

Elsa looks very good on radar. I am sure it is intensified near hurricane force strength. Compared to earlier this morning radar is absolutely a beast.

Any word on the status of recon?

They’re up and en route

[hiflyer]

Cuba radar still showing Elsas blob south of Cuba. Looks like she’s slowly pulling it north so the Keys may get that later

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/NacComp200Km.gif

Yup...would say Elsa has 2/3 of what was there 24 hrs ago....will it be enough to survive for a bit?

[NDG]

[Vdogg]

That little ball of convection seems to be racing due west. This might be the one that does it, clearly trying to wrap now.

[ronjon]

Radar now showing a tightening circulation with almost 3/4 of it surrounded by convection banding. It strengthening to me and would not be surprised to see a pressure fall when recon gets there. Key west airport reported sustained winds of 43 mph with gusts to 59 mph. And they're 65 miles east of the center.

There's definitely a good band of convection with a long tail extending all the way down south of Cuba on the east side of this system. A heavy rain and SVR risk is likely to evolve over parts of the peninsula.

I think those of us along the immediate west coast from Sarasota northward are in for a rough ride tonight and tomorrow morning, especially if these convective bands just east of the center keep training over us for hours. We just experienced a true coastal hugger with ETA in November. This one night be on par or worse.

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/4PKmH93.gif

That burst has some deep orange and a little red now on radar. Some red now over land in the outer bands

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa has an eye on radar that is so ridiculousy small. Can someone post a pic of current radar because that eye is ridiculous.

[eastcoastFL]

Elsa clearly enjoying the 84 degree water here

[eastcoastFL]

Elsa has an eye on radar that is so ridiculousy small. Can someone post a pic of current radar because that eye is ridiculous.

Here you go

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yeah and I got a pic of a frame on radar scope that shows a mini eye right there that wraps incredibly tight with a little hole right in the middle. That eye feature had to be close to a mile wide.

[eastcoastFL]

Zoomed in radar

[gatorcane]

Key West international reporting 44mph winds gust to 70mph

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... OR-zy33ahA

[caneman]

Looks to be trying to wrap. Weather Channel just reported 70 mph gusts in Key West

[Aric Dunn]

That little ball of convection seems to be racing due west. This might be the one that does it, clearly trying to wrap now.

The momentum has been slowly shifting all morning. pushing the bulk convective mass from east to the NW soon. at which point it will be able to cut off the small sliver of dry air.

later as the shear direction switches to more of wsw to Sw direction it will be in more of the direction of movement and reducing the effective shear.

[cycloneye]

Aric Dunn, great timing for Recon to arrive.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric Dunn, great timing for Recon to arrive.

I would say so.. lets just hope for no issues.. lol

[psyclone]

Yikes at that 70mph gust in Key West! Every time I trash a storm it ignites.

[Sanibel]

When you live down here you get a feel for these things and when Elsa first formed the atmosphere down here was just a little too cool to suggest support for a hurricane...A messed-up, elongated, naked June-like spiral is just about right for how it felt a week ago...

The first rain bands and winds are just showing up here on Sanibel...I'm glad this is a nothingburger that should give us a good TS brush...

[eastcoastFL]

If I didn’t know better I’d say it’s going due N or NNNNE