Texas Winter 2024-2025

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gpsnowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3821 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:09 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
wxman22 wrote:OUN is now going for up to one inch of snow for the Wichita Falls area.Several models are coming in more aggressive with back building bands of snow forming to the west and training over the area most of tomorrow. Wouldn’t be surprised if those totals go up to 1-3 inches if the trend continues in the 12z runs.Stay tuned :wink:

https://i.ibb.co/SRrD77k/IMG-0141.png

The last I looked the HRRR looked pretty decent for us. I think it either going to be a nice surprise for us or nothing much.

The event is not starting out like we want(all snow) but I am not discounting late afternoon into Friday morning. Snow could be quite heavy with accumulation. Friday morning could be a slushy mess which would cause more psychological travel issues rather than real time issue with motorists. My daughter's school plays it safe so it wouldn't surprise me if Friday is cancelled.
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jasons2k
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3822 Postby jasons2k » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:09 am

Is that a “warm nose” you say?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3823 Postby TXTiger10 » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:12 am

snownado wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
True, if you get 6" plus snow amounts you could see some travel issues for a bit but that should melt fast with temps going above freezing on Friday


Social Media hyped this up. They got thier clicks/payouts with no ramifications.

At this point I fully expect to be at work both Thursday and Friday and my kids to have school.

Temps are just too warm. Roads will be passable and we Texans just need to suck it up and stop expecting we just close down for one snow flake.

I mean snow is just frozen rain. Not like we haven't seen precipitation fall before........


Still though, it hurts because of how close this was to what could have been


In the words of one of the greatest minds of our time, "What can be, unburdened by what has been".
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3824 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:16 am

jasons2k wrote:Is that a “warm nose” you say?

A very small one.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3825 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:17 am

Oh, the betrayal of the heavens! The forecast, that shimmering beacon of hope, has deceived us all! We were promised a winter wonderland, a pristine blanket of white to transform our mundane existence into a magical frosty fairytale. But alas, the snowflakes have conspired against us!

Excitement bubbled in our hearts, only to be cruelly extinguished by the harsh reality of it fizzling out. The sky, once filled with the promise of a snowy embrace, now mocks us with its empty, gray void. Where are our frosted rooftops, our snow-draped trees, our perfectly Instagrammable moments of catching snowflakes on our tongues?

And what of the children, with their sleds and snow boots, eagerly awaiting their moment of winter glory? Their dreams of snowball fights and snowmen, now shattered like fragile icicles on a warm day. The sheer injustice of it all! It's as if Mother Nature herself has pulled the greatest prank of the season, leaving us with nothing but cold disappointment and wet, slushy sidewalks.

We shall remember this day, the day the snow failed us, and we will recount this tale of woe to future generations. We will endure, but the sting of this letdown will not soon be forgotten. The sky may clear, but our hearts remain clouded with the ghost of the snow that never was.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3826 Postby Fifty Rock » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:18 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
snownado wrote:
There's still the remote (albeit fleeting) possibility of a Feb. 2011 redux, where the intense rates overcame the marginal temps.

I'm still holding out slim hope for that, but realistically, a cold rain and sleet fest is seeming more likely.


True, if you get 6" plus snow amounts you could see some travel issues for a bit but that should melt fast with temps going above freezing on Friday


Social Media hyped this up. They got thier clicks/payouts with no ramifications.

At this point I fully expect to be at work both Thursday and Friday and my kids to have school.

Temps are just too warm. Roads will be passable and we Texans just need to suck it up and stop expecting we just close down for one snow flake.

I mean snow is just frozen rain. Not like we haven't seen precipitation fall before and we don't shut down when it rains!


I Wouldn’t count on Friday just yet. It’s fairly cold lately and if it’s below freezing Friday morning, there will be travel issues. I worked for the State many years and worked many a winter storm. Dark, cold and moisture = issues.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3827 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:20 am

orangeblood wrote:One of the many aspects of this that I think is important to point out is this shouldn't be too much of a disruption to travel. With temps forecast to be just at or above freezing for the entire duration of this event, roads should stay wet unless there's a quick burst of snow but even that should quickly melt. This is likely a grass and roofs covered snow event, not a snow packed roads/travel issue type!


So, no school closures.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3828 Postby Fifty Rock » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:22 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:Oh, the betrayal of the heavens! The forecast, that shimmering beacon of hope, has deceived us all! We were promised a winter wonderland, a pristine blanket of white to transform our mundane existence into a magical frosty fairytale. But alas, the snowflakes have conspired against us!

Excitement bubbled in our hearts, only to be cruelly extinguished by the harsh reality of it fizzling out. The sky, once filled with the promise of a snowy embrace, now mocks us with its empty, gray void. Where are our frosted rooftops, our snow-draped trees, our perfectly Instagrammable moments of catching snowflakes on our tongues?

And what of the children, with their sleds and snow boots, eagerly awaiting their moment of winter glory? Their dreams of snowball fights and snowmen, now shattered like fragile icicles on a warm day. The sheer injustice of it all! It's as if Mother Nature herself has pulled the greatest prank of the season, leaving us with nothing but cold disappointment and wet, slushy sidewalks.

We shall remember this day, the day the snow failed us, and we will recount this tale of woe to future generations. We will endure, but the sting of this letdown will not soon be forgotten. The sky may clear, but our hearts remain clouded with the ghost of the snow that never was.


Not sure this is applicable until Friday if nothing comes to fruition. Plenty of snow is still in the cards.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3829 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:22 am

Fifty Rock wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
True, if you get 6" plus snow amounts you could see some travel issues for a bit but that should melt fast with temps going above freezing on Friday


Social Media hyped this up. They got thier clicks/payouts with no ramifications.

At this point I fully expect to be at work both Thursday and Friday and my kids to have school.

Temps are just too warm. Roads will be passable and we Texans just need to suck it up and stop expecting we just close down for one snow flake.

I mean snow is just frozen rain. Not like we haven't seen precipitation fall before and we don't shut down when it rains!


I Wouldn’t count on Friday just yet. It’s fairly cold lately and if it’s below freezing Friday morning, there will be travel issues. I worked for the State many years and worked many a winter storm. Dark, cold and moisture = issues.


Delayed start probably seems more logical but do they even do that anymore ?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3830 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:25 am

Fifty Rock wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:Oh, the betrayal of the heavens! The forecast, that shimmering beacon of hope, has deceived us all! We were promised a winter wonderland, a pristine blanket of white to transform our mundane existence into a magical frosty fairytale. But alas, the snowflakes have conspired against us!

Excitement bubbled in our hearts, only to be cruelly extinguished by the harsh reality of it fizzling out. The sky, once filled with the promise of a snowy embrace, now mocks us with its empty, gray void. Where are our frosted rooftops, our snow-draped trees, our perfectly Instagrammable moments of catching snowflakes on our tongues?

And what of the children, with their sleds and snow boots, eagerly awaiting their moment of winter glory? Their dreams of snowball fights and snowmen, now shattered like fragile icicles on a warm day. The sheer injustice of it all! It's as if Mother Nature herself has pulled the greatest prank of the season, leaving us with nothing but cold disappointment and wet, slushy sidewalks.

We shall remember this day, the day the snow failed us, and we will recount this tale of woe to future generations. We will endure, but the sting of this letdown will not soon be forgotten. The sky may clear, but our hearts remain clouded with the ghost of the snow that never was.


Not sure this is applicable until Friday if nothing comes to fruition. Plenty of snow is still in the cards.


Yes, I don't want anyone to get the wrong impression....this absolutely can turn into a winter wonderland with 6" plus amounts over a wide area of North Texas but it's not 2014 or 2021 ice/snow maggedon, more like Feb 2010
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3831 Postby Gotwood » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:26 am

Today’s temps and cloud cover will set the table. If it stays sort of cloudy and stays in the 30s today we could be in business.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3832 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:26 am

orangeblood wrote:
Fifty Rock wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Social Media hyped this up. They got thier clicks/payouts with no ramifications.

At this point I fully expect to be at work both Thursday and Friday and my kids to have school.

Temps are just too warm. Roads will be passable and we Texans just need to suck it up and stop expecting we just close down for one snow flake.

I mean snow is just frozen rain. Not like we haven't seen precipitation fall before and we don't shut down when it rains!


I Wouldn’t count on Friday just yet. It’s fairly cold lately and if it’s below freezing Friday morning, there will be travel issues. I worked for the State many years and worked many a winter storm. Dark, cold and moisture = issues.


Delayed start probably seems more logical but do they even do that anymore ?

Boy they did when I was growing up and they sucked!! If they did that I would just keep my kid home.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3833 Postby losf1981 » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:28 am

Gotwood wrote:Today’s temps and cloud cover will set the table. If it stays sort of cloudy and stays in the 30s today we could be in business.


Sunny as can be in Wichita Falls..... :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3834 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:29 am

orangeblood wrote:Yes, I don't want anyone to get the wrong impression....this absolutely can turn into a winter wonderland with 6" plus amounts over a wide area of North Texas but it's not 2014 or 2021 ice/snow maggedon, more like Feb 2010

I think 2/2010 is a very good comp. Very boom/bust, if boom then can be huge but easily can be nothing but a bit of slush on the grass. Thankfully surface looks to be warm enough for no meaningful freezing rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3835 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:30 am

I am just a bit surprised. I went to bed with talk that the warm nose was very shallow and could be overcome.

Now, it's a nothingburger despite the warning?

Just whiplash around here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3836 Postby GeauxTigers » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:30 am

orangeblood wrote:
Fifty Rock wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Social Media hyped this up. They got thier clicks/payouts with no ramifications.

At this point I fully expect to be at work both Thursday and Friday and my kids to have school.

Temps are just too warm. Roads will be passable and we Texans just need to suck it up and stop expecting we just close down for one snow flake.

I mean snow is just frozen rain. Not like we haven't seen precipitation fall before and we don't shut down when it rains!


I Wouldn’t count on Friday just yet. It’s fairly cold lately and if it’s below freezing Friday morning, there will be travel issues. I worked for the State many years and worked many a winter storm. Dark, cold and moisture = issues.


Delayed start probably seems more logical but do they even do that anymore ?


Our district doesn't necessarily like delayed starts or early releases. It' such a chaotic mess to get kids home after already being at school, and difficult to get them there when delayed. But yes, they still do these things, if needed. Just like ideal.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3837 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:31 am

TropicalTundra wrote:RGEM still looking pretty. Somehow a foot, probably accounting for other precip too if I had to guess


The RGEM drops nearly 2" QPF across DFW. It & the Euro have been the most consistent with this event. Borderline temps and mesoscale banding will likely produce wildly different results across relatively small geographic areas. Some will remember this as the storm of a lifetime and others will call it a bust.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3838 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:33 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:Oh, the betrayal of the heavens! The forecast, that shimmering beacon of hope, has deceived us all! We were promised a winter wonderland, a pristine blanket of white to transform our mundane existence into a magical frosty fairytale. But alas, the snowflakes have conspired against us!

Excitement bubbled in our hearts, only to be cruelly extinguished by the harsh reality of it fizzling out. The sky, once filled with the promise of a snowy embrace, now mocks us with its empty, gray void. Where are our frosted rooftops, our snow-draped trees, our perfectly Instagrammable moments of catching snowflakes on our tongues?

And what of the children, with their sleds and snow boots, eagerly awaiting their moment of winter glory? Their dreams of snowball fights and snowmen, now shattered like fragile icicles on a warm day. The sheer injustice of it all! It's as if Mother Nature herself has pulled the greatest prank of the season, leaving us with nothing but cold disappointment and wet, slushy sidewalks.

We shall remember this day, the day the snow failed us, and we will recount this tale of woe to future generations. We will endure, but the sting of this letdown will not soon be forgotten. The sky may clear, but our hearts remain clouded with the ghost of the snow that never was.


This reads like A Christmas Story. Look, it at least looks like we will have pretty snow to look at, and enough to accumulate. Just wish it were a bit colder.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3839 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:33 am

bubba hotep wrote:
TropicalTundra wrote:RGEM still looking pretty. Somehow a foot, probably accounting for other precip too if I had to guess


The RGEM drops nearly 2" QPF across DFW. It & the Euro have been the most consistent with this event. Borderline temps and mesoscale banding will likely produce wildly different results across relatively small geographic areas. Some will remember this as the storm of a lifetime and others will call it a bust.

Not quite Tulsa to Kansas City but if I have to drive from south Grand Prairie to Irving to see snow I will do it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#3840 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:34 am

Gotwood wrote:Today’s temps and cloud cover will set the table. If it stays sort of cloudy and stays in the 30s today we could be in business.


Need to watch your dewpoints more than anything if you want more accumulating snowfall. Your surface temps will not drop below that obviously. This is all upper level driven for snow or sleet and without real cold air in place at the surface, surface temps are likely going to stay at or just above freezing.
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