ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Talk about carving out the SE Coastline...geez!!!
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Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
In the timeframe that it would be near the Carolina's is even more subject to change as it is additional days out.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
tgenius wrote:fci wrote:tgenius wrote:Wow.. that run looks kinda like what David did in 79.. I was one years old but I remember my parents telling me just how close it got.
Am I missing something?
David came ashore, Matthew still looks offshore
David DID NOT come ashore in SFL.. it skirted the coast and went north.. that's what I was referring to.
It was along the coast at Jensen Beach. We are parsing words here.
Suffice to say; my point is that the model run doesn't even show Matthew at the coast.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Looks like it moved over the outer Banks, a grazing hit. Remember this is just one run, GFS, 180 hours.
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TheStormExpert
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centuryv58
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
fci wrote:tgenius wrote:fci wrote:Am I missing something?
David came ashore, Matthew still looks offshore
David DID NOT come ashore in SFL.. it skirted the coast and went north.. that's what I was referring to.
It was along the coast at Jensen Beach. We are parsing words here.
Suffice to say; my point is that the model run doesn't even show Matthew at the coast.
Not sure what you are looking at. It seems to be dragging along a great deal of coastline.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
centuryv58 wrote:fci wrote:tgenius wrote:
David DID NOT come ashore in SFL.. it skirted the coast and went north.. that's what I was referring to.
It was along the coast at Jensen Beach. We are parsing words here.
Suffice to say; my point is that the model run doesn't even show Matthew at the coast.
Not sure what you are looking at. It seems to be dragging along a great deal of coastline.
Probably 70-100 miles offshore.
Close enough for certain TS conditions, seemingly not Hurricane conditions.
At least on this run.....
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Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
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toad strangler
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
If these subtle W trends were to continue this turns into a S landfall and potential inland runner before ejecting back out to sea.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Perhaps this may be the understatement and Captain Obvious moment of the night, but the Euro run in about an hour may be watched as much as the first Presidential Debate...
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Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
That has got to be one one the worst runs for damage I have seen. 20 million with out power, give or take.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Hey a Rhode Island landfall. That might be the rarest model landfall state of them all.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:Perhaps this may be the understatement and Captain Obvious moment of the night, but the Euro run in about an hour may be watched as much as the first Presidential Debate...
Nope. The in the clear masses are sound asleep while weather geeks freak out!
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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Wow it seems like every single GFS model run this gets closer and closer to not only Florida but to the Carolinas. One thing we can say for sure is if it shifts anymore Westward on the next model run it will be predicting landfall for sure, whether it's Florida or the Carolinas. Even though it's just one model the GFS is a very respectable model .
Edit: okay never mind, looks like this is already predicting a landfall further up the East Coast
Edit: okay never mind, looks like this is already predicting a landfall further up the East Coast
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I can't believe that trough just went negative tilt and did that. Matthew takes the scenic coastal tour of the entire eastern CONUS that run.
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dexterlabio
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
So it's not just Florida in the US that might be sweating bullets in the coming days..
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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