ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3841 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:02 am

Expecting a big shift to the west from the ECMWF model following the trend
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3842 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:02 am

Well I started cleaning the garage here in Key Largo, thinking maybe just in case. But now really starting to wonder, guess I will close things up here this weekend and do the Miami house later next week.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3843 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:02 am

EC at 16.8/54.8 at 48 hours. It looks like all the other models to this point.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3844 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:06 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3845 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:07 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3846 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:10 am

It's already looking like this run is going to be very interesting
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3847 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:11 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:It's already looking like this run is going to be very interesting

Yep. I have no idea what to expect. OTS again?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3848 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:15 am

Trough is stronger compared to yesterday.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3849 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:15 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3850 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:15 am

Euro is about a degree S of 12z and a touch W too through 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3851 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:15 am

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3852 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:17 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Trough is stronger compared to yesterday.

Stronger trough = stronger ridge

It may not be a good sign...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3853 Postby USTropics » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:18 am

Hi-res ECMWF shows Irma passing just to the north of PR:

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Last edited by USTropics on Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3854 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:21 am

Getting good :think:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3855 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:23 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:My prediction is that the Euro will still be out to sea, but a bit further west and closer to the coast.


ill just be difficult and say it goes into the gulf.. :P
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3856 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:24 am

Is it just me? or is it further South this run?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3857 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:24 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
Steve wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
Yeah and looks a weakening storm.


That's actually the spread of the ensembles and not the storm stretching out. NAVGEM out to 160 hours (in spurts). Looks like a landfall around Palm Beach County. Coming in at 950 so strong Cat 3 there. I don't know if I buy the run, but it makes enough sense.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=200

Now we've got the JMA, CMC, and NAV trying to kill me. Nice lol


Yeah its the spread but the lift the storms get does drop off sharply. I also know cat4 don't
just wind down quickly.


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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3858 Postby Steve » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:25 am

HWRF-P is now out. It's heading to the South-Central Bahamas at day 5 with Jose again heading for the Windward Islands.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=100

I'm not sure I buy the wholesale shift south of many of the models. I was saying S FL for days, but that seems a bit far south now to me. I'm not hanging onto the GFS by any means, but I like it's landfall solution for the moment.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3859 Postby WeatherLovingDoc » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:26 am

ECMWF results coming in much faster than last night. :)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#3860 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Sep 03, 2017 1:27 am

WeatherLovingDoc wrote:ECMWF results coming in much faster than last night. :)

That's more sleep for us :lol:
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