Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Fifty Rock]

Oh, the betrayal of the heavens! The forecast, that shimmering beacon of hope, has deceived us all! We were promised a winter wonderland, a pristine blanket of white to transform our mundane existence into a magical frosty fairytale. But alas, the snowflakes have conspired against us!

Excitement bubbled in our hearts, only to be cruelly extinguished by the harsh reality of it fizzling out. The sky, once filled with the promise of a snowy embrace, now mocks us with its empty, gray void. Where are our frosted rooftops, our snow-draped trees, our perfectly Instagrammable moments of catching snowflakes on our tongues?

And what of the children, with their sleds and snow boots, eagerly awaiting their moment of winter glory? Their dreams of snowball fights and snowmen, now shattered like fragile icicles on a warm day. The sheer injustice of it all! It's as if Mother Nature herself has pulled the greatest prank of the season, leaving us with nothing but cold disappointment and wet, slushy sidewalks.

We shall remember this day, the day the snow failed us, and we will recount this tale of woe to future generations. We will endure, but the sting of this letdown will not soon be forgotten. The sky may clear, but our hearts remain clouded with the ghost of the snow that never was.

Not sure this is applicable until Friday if nothing comes to fruition. Plenty of snow is still in the cards.

Yes, I don't want anyone to get the wrong impression....this absolutely can turn into a winter wonderland with 6" plus amounts over a wide area of North Texas but it's not 2014 or 2021 ice/snow maggedon, more like Feb 2010

I worked the 2014 ice storm and spent 12 hours stuck on Interstate 20 out in Palo Pinto County. So just a little advice for anyone that is crazy enough to get out in that type of storm, if the traffic is stopped due to people get stuck on the main lanes, stay off the shoulders so the people working the event can still get around you to treat the area and possibly get you moving again.

[Ralph's Weather]

RGEM is pretty but seems overdone on the surface cold. It is running significantly colder than reality right now so my confidence it its surface temps is low.

[Portastorm]

I am just a bit surprised. I went to bed with talk that the warm nose was very shallow and could be overcome.

Now, it's a nothingburger despite the warning?

Just whiplash around here.

This is why IMO we should most closely follow the NWS and their forecasts. They don't fluctuate wildly like folks here do on every model run. Their forecasts are measured and carefully considered. Besides with Texas winter weather, it's always best to expect getting the nada enchilada even if you've ordered the fajitas.

[gpsnowman]

FYI Ryan Maue posted on X the Euro temp anomaly map for the latter third of January. -40 departure for north Texas. Not saying that will verify but winter is far from over.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Today’s temps and cloud cover will set the table. If it stays sort of cloudy and stays in the 30s today we could be in business.

Sunny as can be in Wichita Falls.....

However, we started the day probably colder (in the low to mid teens) than the metroplex and are forecasted to stay in the 30s today.

[orangeblood]

I am just a bit surprised. I went to bed with talk that the warm nose was very shallow and could be overcome.

Now, it's a nothingburger despite the warning?

Just whiplash around here.

The only nothingburger dynamic mentioned is the travel issues. Forecast for heavy snowfall is still on the table, it's the ground temp dynamic that could make this less impactful

[Lagreeneyes03]

What I foresee happening is people thinking it's a bust, and bridges and overpasses are going to be a nightmare....then if we get a 2 degree temp dip, forget it. Chaos. I think I've seen this film before.

[txtwister78]

I am just a bit surprised. I went to bed with talk that the warm nose was very shallow and could be overcome.

Now, it's a nothingburger despite the warning?

Just whiplash around here.

This is why IMO we should most closely follow the NWS and their forecasts. They don't fluctuate wildly like folks here do on every model run. Their forecasts are measured and carefully considered. Besides with Texas winter weather, it's always best to expect getting the nada enchilada even if you've ordered the fajitas.

100%. Great words of advice to follow folks for future winter weather events. Also keep in mind some of these model snowfall outputs are "contaminated" with sleet being converted to all snow and so that makes the snowfall accumulation map on various sites seem much higher than reality. That's why you'll sometime read from NWS offices in their forecast discussions about cautioning public from relying too heavily on some snowfall map plastered all over social media.

Best to go with blends which is why I share the NMB on here because it's easy to get model whiplash especially the further out one goes. NWS offices have never wavered much throughout and as mentioned before that comes with training and more importantly experience over the years of pattern recognition/ previous events and being able to forecast based off those experiences.

[Gotwood]

What I foresee happening is people thinking it's a bust, and bridges and overpasses are going to be a nightmare....then if we get a 2 degree temp dip, forget it. Chaos. I think I've seen this film before.

I’m feeling the same.

[Ralph's Weather]

Other Hi Res models are colder than HRRR. Elevated surfaces will be affected and some are indicating temps supportive of road issues as well during the day tomorrow. I do not think based on non-global models that you can rule out widespread travel issues.

[cheezyWXguy]

What I foresee happening is people thinking it's a bust, and bridges and overpasses are going to be a nightmare....then if we get a 2 degree temp dip, forget it. Chaos. I think I've seen this film before.

To be fair, I’ve seen the film with cold rain 2 degrees warmer before too, haha. That said, I don’t think we can call it quits on this one yet, a lot of variables still in play. I think the comparisons to 2010 are very apt with the borderline temps and high ceiling. But just like in 2010, even if we do manage to reach that ceiling, I don’t think roads would be as impacted as some feared. I was in Plano at that time, and the only time I saw the roads turn completely white during the event was near the beginning when the first few inches fell before sunrise. The rest of the day it was slush even as snow piled up on everything else. Close to a foot of snow and I didn’t even get a day off school for it because the roads were basically just wet by the next day.

[rwfromkansas]

If we get some accumulation of snow/sleet, temps will definitely drop for Friday morning at least.

[bubba hotep]

RGEM is pretty but seems overdone on the surface cold. It is running significantly colder than reality right now so my confidence it its surface temps is low.

That's why I mentioned QPF and snow totals.

ETA: GFS has that 2" QPF band but puts it SE of DFW

[rwfromkansas]

So is it looking like it won't be phasing after all, or is it phasing but tracking more north instead of digging enough to keep us cold enough?

[Kirby68]

Here in the metroplex, if temps are around 34-35 degrees as forecasted by NWS, and it’s snowing, any chance the snow will drag down colder temps? Wet bulb effect??

[Lagreeneyes03]

What I foresee happening is people thinking it's a bust, and bridges and overpasses are going to be a nightmare....then if we get a 2 degree temp dip, forget it. Chaos. I think I've seen this film before.

To be fair, I’ve seen the film with cold rain 2 degrees warmer before too, haha. That said, I don’t think we can call it quits on this one yet, a lot of variables still in play. I think the comparisons to 2010 are very apt with the borderline temps and high ceiling. But just like in 2010, even if we do manage to reach that ceiling, I don’t think roads would be as impacted as some feared. I was in Plano at that time, and the only time I saw the roads turn completely white during the event was near the beginning when the first few inches fell before sunrise. The rest of the day it was slush even as snow piled up on everything else. Close to a foot of snow and I didn’t even get a day off school for it because the roads were basically just wet by the next day.

I was thinking of... I think it was early 2014 or 2015, there was an overperforming AM event and people left home, commuted, etc when it had started snowing/icing around I wanna say 6-7 AM, Fort Worth/Tarrant county was absolute chaos, Dallas took heed watching what was unfolding on the news and stayed home/canceled/delay started almost everything. I went into my office around 830am, and immediately we all said we were going home and were all gone by 9

[AubreyStorm]

So, are now saying this will pretty much amount to nothing now? Like a little snow, then by end of day it's all gone? No travel issues? No cancellations?

To be clear, it will likely snow and it will likely cause some travel disruptions.

But it's also increasingly likely this won't be the high-impact "shut down the city" snowfall that folks were starting to hype up.

I will arrive on Friday late (10pm) to Dallas Love Field, so I think I will not have any issues. (Maybe)

[HockeyTx82]

https://youtu.be/nAiE9fJbVd4?feature=shared

My hero!

[Ralph's Weather]

RGEM is pretty but seems overdone on the surface cold. It is running significantly colder than reality right now so my confidence it its surface temps is low.

That's why I mentioned QPF and snow totals.

ETA: GFS has that 2" QPF band but puts it SE of DFW

Just a wild range of reasonable outcomes for I-20 corridor especially. On the warm side we could see less than an inch of sleet and the cold end gives I-20 corridor a foot of snow. Reality will be in between though.

[cheezyWXguy]

So is it looking like it won't be phasing after all, or is it phasing but tracking more north instead of digging enough to keep us cold enough?

Someone can correct me on this if I’m wrong, but if anything the 500mb pattern looks a little better than it did yesterday. The secondary shortwave comes down a little faster and combines with the primary to form a bit beefier of a trough. I suspect this is why most of the models at least maintain high qpfs if not slightly increase them. At this point I think we’ve improved back close to baseline and are just watching as to whether cold or warm air advection wins the battle.