ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[dexterlabio]

Very warm anomaly showing up near 100W and at the surface. If this keeps up I don't think we're seeing a Modoki in the near term...

[Ntxw]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif


Very warm anomaly showing up near 100W and at the surface. If this keeps up I don't think we're seeing a Modoki in the near term...

Almost carbon copy of 1997. Some resemblance to 1972 as well. Does not get any more El Nino thermocline than that. I think the IRI will raise their odds of El Nino in the April update significantly. Paul Roundy's 80% doesn't look so crazy after all.

Definitely more impressive than 2009 even at its peak

[xtyphooncyclonex]

1997 part II? Man, that year had one of the worst Asian droughts!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

All regions are going down. Why is this happening?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Geez that warm pool is huge. So is there any clue as to how this begins in the first place? I know this could be a massive mystery but something of this magnitude happening so quickly is incredible.

[dexterlabio]

All regions are going down. Why is this happening?

It's not something to raise an eyebrow just yet. There could be slight fluctuation of temp readings on a daily basis and they're not actually a trend.

[Kingarabian]

All regions are going down. Why is this happening?

I don't think it means much. That warm pool is going to remain there for quite some time, so the SST's have no where to go but up.
That's why it's best to look at weekly averages to gauge what's happening. Daily's are always expected to fluctuate.

[Ntxw]

All regions are going down. Why is this happening?

It's not something to raise an eyebrow just yet. There could be slight fluctuation of temp readings on a daily basis and they're not actually a trend.

Some easterlies and MJO still not in the favorable phases for rapid warm up. We are kind of in a La Nina state when looking at the MJO, so things are a little slow. ENSO is a very sloooow process ebb and flow. It took us 2 months just to build the pool and get it halfway through the Pacific! WWB will return, just takes some time it's not going to be a constant rise.

Euro has been hinting at potential cyclone activity in the WPAC. Worth monitoring.

Ocean heat anoms that way continues to rise to near record levels for the time of year when usually it dips



Here was the 1997 April composite. As of late March we are already heading towards it if not there. If not for the cold pool east of 90W it's just eerie how they cooperate.



Includes 3/24 update

[cycloneye]

That Kelvin Wave is huge. Here is how Dr Michael Ventrice describes it.

@MJVentrice
20C isotherm depth anom off the charts w/this record-setting downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. Big east push of warmth.

[Ntxw]

Any guesses what the update will be on Monday? I'm going to guess +0.3C, it's been fluctuating between +0.2's and +0.3's



In other news, Euro has been zoning in on a WPAC typhoon. Would be eerie if that happens within the next 2 weeks, and definitely something to think about in the Philippines.

[Ntxw]

The ECMWF has been the superior MJO model over the GFS, the american model was confused with the subtropical flare over the Pacific. It correctly advanced the pulse into the IO vs sending it back to 8/1 as in a few weeks ago. The model now predicts the strengthening of the MJO as it advances towards the Maritime Continent much quicker than it's pace the past week. This is our new WWB, think a big Pacific MJO is coming. Probably why this model has been so bullish in typhoon formation.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just for comparison purposes.

You can clearly see that the sea surface temperatures [SST's] in March 16 have warmed, and those anomalies are even strengthening. 12 days later [March 28], the sea surface temperatures are warming EVEN MORE and the anomalies are pushing east. Those cool anomalies over South America are shrinking and weakening and will be dominated by the warmer waters, by which will be fueled even more by the subsurface warm pool. We could even surpass the anomalies in the MAM timeframe of 1997, and get our first +0.5C anomalies in Nino Regions 3.4 and 3 on early April, as those regions already in warm neutral. and are heading towards El Nino threshold. This will even be fueled by the westerlies enhanced by the phantom storm over the WEST PACIFIC. Meanwhile, Nino Region 1+2 is warming the most rapidly, but is still in LA NINA threshold. But still, it is impossible not to get an El Nino of any kind or intensity. Also, we are seeing warm anomalies now, and may become very powerful at the time the El Nino reaches its peak, and may be one of the most powerful of record.

[Ntxw]

Just for comparison purposes.

I agree it's extraordinary what is going on out there. The current warm pool will easily carry El Nino threshold for at least 2 months through early and mid summer. It's enough for us to get to moderate levels for El Nino during that time. WWB's will help but what we have to wait for to get a super El Nino comes the second half. ENSO goes through two transitional phases, first is the spring second is the fall followed by their peak in late fall and winter. Between these two transitions is when we see vulnerability, we've overcome the spring barrier quite easily. 2012 saw the first half go well then could not survive the second half come Aug/Sept. 1997 exploded in the fall after the transition from summer to fall from moderate-strong to super. If we can get moderate established by early summer we'll get tremendous feedback to really sustain it through the transition period.

June 1997 we had a full fledged moderate El Nino



August the pool waned due to the transition of the seasons



By October it exploded into a Super El Nino with resurgence



1982 behaved much the same in a lesser state. 2009 was our most recent El Nino and strongest since 2000. Based on the the warm pool size and evolution I think it's probable we will topple that one as it was not as deep, large, or as warm.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of 2009, just for eyeballing purposes at it's peak!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This warm pool at the subsurface is stronger than of March 1997.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My forecast for ASO 2014.



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[xtyphooncyclonex]

Speaking of 2009, just for eyeballing purposes at it's peak!

IMO, this *upcoming* El Nino will definitely be stronger than 2009! Evidenced by the warm pool's intensity and also the warm pool is expanding and strengthening quickly at an unusual time of year. Going to be at least a strong EL NINO this year.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

1982 was the fastest intensifying. It was supposed to be a weak El Nino, but it turned out to be one of the strongest on record. The warm pool was not yet properly developed but it surprisingly exploded!

[stormkite]

Its barreling along

[Portastorm]

Interesting blurb from an article on the Mashable website which speaks to the likelihood of an El Nino and possibly a strong one:

One problem that forecasters encounter when trying to foresee the likelihood and intensity of El Niño events is that there is limited historical data of the vast Pacific Ocean. Observational data only dates back to about 1990, Roundy says.

Making matters more difficult for forecasters is the recent degradation of a crucial buoy network used for El Niño and La Niña monitoring. Budget cuts have led to missing data, with the network known as the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Project, or TAO array, operating at just 30 to 40% percent of capacity.