ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[weatherguru18]

wow 3 TC in july

and if the wave coming off africa develops . that makes 4

Yeah, I was just going to say that Eduard may form later this week. We're not far behind '05 at this time.

[HarlequinBoy]

Do you think the MGC/AL coasts are in the clear?

Nothing to indicate any threat there. All guidance is between Brownsville, TX and Tampico. High pressure is located over the north-central Gulf, so you should be ok.

Thank you. =D

[stormy1970al]

Do you think the MGC/AL coasts are in the clear?

I think we are in the clear right now according to the track but with any storm entering the GOM anyone along the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on it because things can change in a second.

[SWFLA_CANE]

wow 3 TC in july

and if the wave coming off africa develops . that makes 4

Yeah, I was just going to say that Eduard may form later this week. We're not far behind '05 at this time.

We are way behind '05 in respect to intensity, in '05 we already had Dennis and Emily

[Chacor]

AT 1145 AM EDT...1545 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE
BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[MiamiensisWx]

Do you think the MGC/AL coasts are in the clear?

I think we are in the clear right now according to the track but with any storm entering the GOM anyone along the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on it because things can change in a second.

This is not going to Louisiana or points east.

[weatherguru18]

wow 3 TC in july

and if the wave coming off africa develops . that makes 4

Yeah, I was just going to say that Eduard may form later this week. We're not far behind '05 at this time.

We are way behind '05 in respect to intensity, in '05 we already had Dennis and Emily

Yeah, but number of storms overall, we're not that far behind. As far as Dolly goes, I would think that she'd be a major threat if she shot the channel. But being she will spend a decent amount of time over the yucatan, I'm not sure if she is going to gear up into a powerhouse storm. Not saying she won't, but this is likely to be a Claudette if you ask me.

[bvigal]

[curtadams]

One thing slowing down the Dolly advisory might be developing the track/intensity predictions. The models didn't know where it was going to be so they're not particularly useful, especially given the proximity to the ULL and the Yucatan, which mean smallish differences in track now mean biggish differences later. I suspect some hurried conferencing is going on now.

[canegrl04]

Hello Dolly. You play nice now...

Thats creeping me out! IF our Dolly becomes a major,then this is probably what she would look like

[funster]

So the farthest point North this could go in the GOM is just east of Galveston because of a weak high pressure system. Is that correct to say?

[Cape Verde]

I haven't been worried so much about track, but whether it would reach storm intensity. And it has, skipping right past the official designation of tropical depression.

As they day goes on and the new model runs start initializing at the center instead of random places on the map, I think we might have a more intelligent discussion about forecast track.

[lrak]

The convection is really starting to rap around.

[rockyman]

1545 UTC sun Jul 20 2008

at 1145 am EDT...1545 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from the
border with Belize to Campeche Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm center located near 18.4n 84.2w at 20/1545z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 15 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1008 mb
Max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
34 kt.......100ne 150se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas..100ne 175se 100sw 60nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 18.4n 84.2w at 20/1545z
at 20/1200z center was located near 17.9n 83.5w

forecast valid 21/0000z 19.7n 86.3w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...150ne 150se 0sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 21/1200z 21.1n 89.5w...inland over Yucatan
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...150ne 150se 0sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 22/0000z 22.2n 92.2w...over Gulf of Mexico
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...150ne 150se 0sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 22/1200z 23.0n 94.0w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 60sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 23/1200z 24.5n 96.0w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 0sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 60sw 150nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 24/1200z 26.0n 97.5w...inland
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.

Outlook valid 25/1200z 27.0n 100.0w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 18.4n 84.2w

next advisory at 20/2100z

$$
forecaster Knabb

[HarlequinBoy]

Do you think the MGC/AL coasts are in the clear?

I think we are in the clear right now according to the track but with any storm entering the GOM anyone along the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on it because things can change in a second.

...and there is some magical force that makes GOM TCs more "unpredictable" than others in the other (non-special) regions of the Atlantic basin. Gotcha.

This is not going to Louisiana or points east.

There is no need to be rude. He/she was merely saying keep an eye out.

[rockyman]

Fourth tropical storm of the Atlantic season forms in the western
Caribbean Sea...

at 1145 am EDT...1545 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from the
border with Belize to Campeche Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1145 am EDT...1545z...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 18.4 north...longitude 84.2 west or about 270
miles...435 km...east of Chetumal Mexico and about 230 miles...365
km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
northwestward or west-northwestward motion is forecast during the
next couple of days...with little change in forward speed. On this
track...the center of Dolly will move across the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico tonight and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible today before Dolly reaches
the Yucatan Peninsula. Slow strengthening is forecast on Monday
once Dolly emerges over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center. Dolly could produce winds near tropical storm
force...especially in gusts...over the western tip of Cuba today.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft was 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba...with
isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches. An additional 2 to 4
inches is expected in the Cayman Islands...with a storm total of up
to 8 inches.

Repeating the 1145 am EDT position...18.4 N...84.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Knabb

[RL3AO]

Forecast point is a 60kt landfall at Brownsville. Of course you should look at the entire cone.

[MiamiensisWx]

There is no need to be rude. He/she was merely saying keep an eye out.

I apologize for that comment, but it clearly will not affect LA or points east, based on my analysis.

I'll remove the offending portion.

[rockyman]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200804

[RainWind]

As long as that high hangs around, we are ok, on the upper Gulf Coast. However, we should be vigilant in our watch. I remember Katrina. Friday evening at going home time, it was headed for Central Florida, and we let our guard down a little. It soon became evident on Saturday that the storm had other plans, and, the rest, as we say, is history. All this to say, don't worry, just stay informed.

RW