CronkPSU wrote:oh boy...this is not looking good for Savannah
except that our stellar local mets have already written it off....
ATL: IRENE - Models
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
except that our stellar local mets have already written it off....
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Evil Jeremy
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Re:
What is the DGEX? Did the FIM give birth to another unknown model?
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GreenWinds
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
HWRF is still off the coast of FL and GFS even further EAST. Plus didn't the latest (12z or 18z) UKMET and GFDL shift EAST (even though they skirt the FL coast)?
I think we are getting a consensus of Irene staying about 100 miles of FL at the closest approach. South Carolina is still the landfall target. Nothing significant has changed in terms of 5PM NHC track in my amateur opinion.
I think we are getting a consensus of Irene staying about 100 miles of FL at the closest approach. South Carolina is still the landfall target. Nothing significant has changed in terms of 5PM NHC track in my amateur opinion.
Last edited by GreenWinds on Mon Aug 22, 2011 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
GreenWinds wrote:HWRF is still off the coast of FL and GFS even further EAST. Plus didn't the latest (12z or 18z) UKMET and GFDL shift EAST (even though they skirt the FL coast)?
I think we are getting a consensus of Irene staying about 100 miles of FL at the closest approach. South Carolina is still the landfall target. Nothing significant in my amateur opinion.
Trend is west with the gulfstream data. Tonight will really tell the tale though.
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webke
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
CronkPSU wrote:oh boy...this is not looking good for Savannah
I think Charleston will have more to worry about with this run, but we need to see if the Euro makes a westward shift too.
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WeatherEmperor
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Re:
chris_fit wrote:Hrmmmm where is that new GFDL
Right here:
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif
Makes landfall in South Florida....a small bit north compared to 12Z but still on South Florida.
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Jevo
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
GreenWinds wrote:HWRF is still off the coast of FL and GFS even further EAST. Plus didn't the latest (12z or 18z) UKMET and GFDL shift EAST (even though they skirt the FL coast)?
I think we are getting a consensus of Irene staying about 100 miles of FL at the closest approach. South Carolina is still the landfall target. Nothing significant in my amateur opinion.
12Z GFDL was still right up the spine of FL if I remember correctly.. One thing I've learned by listening to people much smarter than myself when it comes to models (MWatkins, Ortt, etc) its not the individual run you have to pay attention to.. Its the trends.. Considering 1/3 of the G-IV data is in the new runs and the trend is marching back West I would say SFL up through the Mid Atlantic is still very much in play
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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Evil Jeremy
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Jevo
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Thats no fun when the outliers nudge towards the consensus... but nothing too extreme.. makes you wonder if they were on the right track from the beginning.. they all have to meet in the middle sooner or later.. Where is the question
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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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deltadog03
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otowntiger
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Re:
[quote="chris_fit"]30hr
Wouldn't Irene need to start going due west if not south of due west to get to that point? I don't know which model this is but it doesn't seem to be getting off to a good start. lol
Wouldn't Irene need to start going due west if not south of due west to get to that point? I don't know which model this is but it doesn't seem to be getting off to a good start. lol
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