ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

Speed this up: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Where is Debbie?

[tolakram]

Latest

[CrazyC83]

Winds at Apalachicola airport just shifted around to the northeast with a pressure of 995 mb there. I think we might have landfall.

Landfall on a center relocation?

[Aric Dunn]

The center is still elongated and the NHC will likely take the average which is still offshore.

[TheBurn]

18:45z VIS / IR (Day / Night)

[Evil Jeremy]

Something has happened with the center over the past 2 or so hours. It's a less clear now than before, it's not just clouds filling in the center. Probably a center relocation. To my untrained eye, it looks like decoupling, but as I said, untrained unprofessional look at it.

[stormhunter7]

the radar data (winds) over bay/walton/gulf county at about 25kft and higher is interesting, it appears there is southwest winds coming up off the gulf? If you go up through the tilts there on tlh/evx... on 4.0 and higher. Was told it could be seeing the upper divergence associated with the convective blowup over the big bend. I think its the anticyclonic flow building over the central GOM? Anyone, care to chime in?

[trave2]

This board is getting crazy now a days. I woke up and all this talk on how the storm is DEAD. With a tropical low clearly still spinning over 80 + degree water temp and yes NAKED but still hanging in there and people are saying it's dead. Wind in tampa area has been staedy but more sustained than last two days. We got some big gusts yesterday and last night with the squalls but today a little more sustained.

water temps all over gulf are 80+ degrees still, there is no upwelling.

no landfall either...wind is still se, e



Tampa Bay PORTS, NOAA/NOS 2012-06-25 15:14 EDT

----------------------------Water Levels (above MLLW)---------------------------
Port of Tampa CSX *** ft, Old Port Tampa 4.3 ft, Steady
St. Petersburg 4.1 ft, Rising Port Manatee 3.9 ft, Rising
--------------------------------------Winds-------------------------------------
Spd Dir Gusts Spd Dir Gusts
TPA Cruise Term. 2 10 kn WSW 18 East Bay Causeway 21 kn SSW 26
Seabulk 19 kn S 26 Berth 223 26 kn S 33
Old Port Tampa 27 kn SSW 35 St. Petersburg 26 kn SSW 32
----------------------------Air and Water Temperature---------------------------
Air Water Air Water
Old Port Tampa 82 °F 80 °F St. Petersburg 82 °F 82 °F
Port Manatee 84 °F 80 °F
-------------------------------Barometric Pressure------------------------------
Old Port Tampa 1004 mb Falling St. Petersburg 1005 mb Falling
Port Manatee 1004 mb Falling
------------------Currents (F)lood, (S)lack, (E)bb, towards °T------------------
Spd Dir Spd Dir
Old Port Tampa *** kn ( ), ***°T Port Manatee (pred) 0.5 kn (F), 30.0°T
Sunshine Skyway 0.4 kn (F), 42.0°T


W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL
Wind Direction (WDIR):
SSW ( 200 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD):
25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST):
31.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES):
29.44 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):
+0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP):
79.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP):
79.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP):
77.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT):
84.0 °F

[Sanibel]

Rare track right into the Big Bend. With dry air, weak SST's, and shear Debby is probably running on solstice solar power.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if there will be another blowup soon in the NW Peninsula? Since it has partially cleared out there and destabilizing is underway...

In the Nature Coast region north of Tampa Bay, CAPE values are highest - around 2,500 right now.

[northjaxpro]

trave2, I agree with you. I still think Debby has a vigorous COC, even though its exposed. It's far from dead at this time. If Debby can moisten up the environment around her some and scour out the dry air intrusion she has encountered the past 18-24 hours, the cyclone has a decent shot to maintain itself.

Although a slim chance for this to happen in my view at this time, should Debby meander around and drift south-southeast from her current position, that would make her chances to intensify slightly better as ssts are a bit warmer south than where she's sitting currently.

['CaneFreak]

Yes it is. It will go down as one of the toughest forecasted storms in years. Highly stressful. I am beginning to become concerned that the GFS solution could be correct to some degree as well. I think Aric may be right that this thing gets left behind and maybe drawn back to the coast under a ridge.

I would have to say, if you look that the 500mb heights to the north of debbie as she leaves florida and begins to slow and almost stall. its in a very precarious spot again and if something like that were to happen. its possible it could wobble back to the coast depending on how far east the ridging extends during that time frame.

That is what is worrying me just a bit. This is a classic COL region Debby is caught in as she is stuck in between the Central U.S. ridge and the East Coast trough. I mean, even if Debby somehow managed to get just east of FL, the East Coast trough may lift out and leave her stuck until some type of "kicker" comes along to finally grab the system. I have a hard time seeing Debby staying intact through all of this though. We'll see.

I tell you one thing, Debby will rank for me and many others I'm sure of being one of the most perplexing storms to get a handle on that's for certain.

[MidnightRain]

Is it me or does it appear that it's very close to making landfall near Apalachicola? Seems like the LLC has shot north towards that flare up.

[trave2]

If you look at the gfs (it's had this storms # all along) that is a scarry picture if it comes true. Just sitting there drifting for days on end, the west coast of florida will have some new coastline. This coast can just barely handle 2 days of 10ft @ 8 sec swell

[GCANE]

The convection seems to be firing on the -4C 500mb Isotherm.

Getting a very good feed on high CAPE air in the NW GOM where it is in the range of 5500 to 6000.

This could continue to fire for a while.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

[WilmingtonSandbar]

This board is getting crazy now a days. I woke up and all this talk on how the storm is DEAD. With a tropical low clearly still spinning over 80 + degree water temp and yes NAKED but still hanging in there and people are saying it's dead. Wind in tampa area has been staedy but more sustained than last two days. We got some big gusts yesterday and last night with the squalls but today a little more sustained.

water temps all over gulf are 80+ degrees still, there is no upwelling.

no landfall either...wind is still se, e

I think if you will go back and look, the people who were saying it was dead, later came back either with questions of "can this strengthen to a hurricane?" or pretty much saying they had no clue. For the most part, long time members ignored them. They did prove that they need to post a disclaimer with their posts though, as some peole took the clueless ones as knowledgeable people it seems.

[ozonepete]

Looks to me like it's making a counter-clockwise loop. Just imho.

[GCANE]

LLC did get repositioned north closer to the flare.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 251345.jpg

[SeminoleWind]

LLC did get repositioned north closer to the flare.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 251345.jpg

Doesn't appear to have made landfall but very good jump north,,,

[GCANE]

Air has been pretty clear over AL and MS most of the day today.

Solar surface heating is now beginning to destablize the air and the convective cap (CIN) has been broken.

Getting an LI of -5 mid-way along the AL/MS border.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

That will reduce the mid-level dry-air advection into her.