Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

Sigh. See what you did Porta? See what you did? By allowing yourself to get captured by the Borg, you messed up the force in the Universe. You messed with it all. Now, Winter is gone. Poof. Bam. Whammo. Good bye.

"When you lose, no one likes it and you start to turn on each other."
-- Rajon Rondo, Dallas Mavericks

[dhweather]

The good news just keeps on coming in. 06Z GFS RTP , under an inch now for most of north Texas.

[Tireman4]

Sigh. See what you did Porta? See what you did? By allowing yourself to get captured by the Borg, you messed up the force in the Universe. You messed with it all. Now, Winter is gone. Poof. Bam. Whammo. Good bye.

"When you lose, no one likes it and you start to turn on each other."
-- Rajon Rondo, Dallas Mavericks

"The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It is a very mean and nasty place It will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me or nobody is going to hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard you're hit, it is about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward, how much can you take and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done!"
--Rocky Balboa, Rocky Balboa

[texas1836]

Maybe we'll have a March surprise?

[wxman57]

Overnight runs of the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian are all warmer for Texas over the next 10 days. Warmer as in not even a freeze for the Dallas-Ft. Worth area (maybe a light one with the Canadian) through next weekend. Nothing quite as nice as the past 2 days, though. If you want to see winter weather over the next 2 weeks you'll have to drive to the central to northern Panhandle, it appears.

Buzzkill Post of the Week Award-winner.

I apologize for being a realist.

240hr Euro has 850mb temps 20-30F above normal through most of western Canada south through the Dakotas, Montana and eastern Wyoming. It just can't get really cold down here without some cold air in western Canada.

[texas1836]

Well, my Cabbage, onions and garlic are taking advantage of this warmer air. However, I’d still like to see my 24" of snow.

[Texas Snowman]

Our beloved expert on all things related to Hot Air posts his daily "No Snow For You" post and now we're trying to write off the entire month of February?

Because of a model run or two? The same models that couldn't agree on whether NYC would get a routine few inches of snow or blasted by a couple of feet of crippling snow?

And the same models that a few days ago were showing a multi-inch rainfall over much of Texas?

Jeepers, if they can't be fully trusted even a couple of days out, how in the world do you trust them for a whole month? Oh for the days of Harold Taft when meteorology was more skill than watching the model runs roll out each day and reacting to them. Only to do it again the next time they roll out. And the next time.

Whether or not this winter delivers anything of substance for those of us on this board that like cold and snow, I don't know.

But I will NOT toss the towel in before January has even run its course.

Ok, mini rant over. And the rebellion continues. Next plan being drawn up? Letting the air out of you know who's bicycle tires.

[wxman57]

Not another deflategate!

It's not looking very good as far as chances for any significant winter precip across central to NE (or SE) Texas this winter. If it doesn't happen before the 15th of February (climatologically) then chances drop way down. The upper air pattern just isn't right to build up cold air in western Canada, and I'm not seeing any significant evidence of a major change in the works. The southern stream keeps shooting storms across Texas, but the airmasses in place have not been cold enough for anything but rain. Texas did need the rain, though.

[Texas Snowman]

You were in New England a couple of weeks ago, weren't you?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Our beloved expert on all things related to Hot Air posts his daily "No Snow For You" post and now we're trying to write off the entire month of February?

Because of a model run or two? The same models that couldn't agree on whether NYC would get a routine few inches of snow or blasted by a couple of feet of crippling snow?

And the same models that a few days ago were showing a multi-inch rainfall over much of Texas?

Jeepers, if they can't be fully trusted even a couple of days out, how in the world do you trust them for a whole month? Oh for the days of Harold Taft when meteorology was more skill than watching the model runs roll out each day and reacting to them. Only to do it again the next time they roll out. And the next time.

Whether or not this winter delivers anything of substance for those of us on this board that like cold and snow, I don't know.

But I will NOT toss the towel in before January has even run its course.

The same could be said for people who are yelling its going to snow and get cold because one model run shows it 3 weeks out.

Its not about 1 or 2 particular runs of models, its the overall pattern. Its been the same all winter long and isn't going to miraculously change just because its February. Winter for much of the south is about 2/3 done and if nothing has happened by now chances are quickly diminishing that they ever will. And sure it could drop below freezing for one or two nights in Feb but its not going to be a prolonged event. I know this has been said a few times already this winter but its just like the last two hurricane seasons where we went through early and mid season and conditions were horrible and never showed signs of changing yet people were screaming wait 2 weeks, wait 4 weeks, its only october etc etc. And of course nothing ever changed regardless how much the GFS and CMC showed it.

Look I would love nothing less than to be buried in 30+ in of snow like the NE but I'm being a realist about things and not going around chasing rainbows and unicorns.

[Ntxw]

Its not about 1 or 2 particular runs of models, its the overall pattern. Its been the same all winter long and isn't going to miraculously change just because its February. Winter for much of the south is about 2/3 done and if nothing has happened by now chances are quickly diminishing that they ever will. And sure it could drop below freezing for one or two nights in Feb but its not going to be a prolonged event. I know this has been said a few times already this winter but its just like the last two hurricane seasons where we went through early and mid season and conditions were horrible and never showed signs of changing yet people were screaming wait 2 weeks, wait 4 weeks, its only october etc etc. And of course nothing ever changed regardless how much the GFS and CMC showed it.

Look I would love nothing less than to be buried in 30+ in of snow like the NE but I'm being a realist about things and not going around chasing rainbows and unicorns.

For the gulf coast and deep south most of this is true, majority of events here occurs in January. But for northern Texas and Oklahoma this is not. We rarely go through a February without any snow. Even the warmest winters in this region February is the single month that we get any of it. Since 2000, 10/14 years the month has seen a trace or more of snow at DFW

[ronyan]

If all you do is talk down winter weather on the gulf coast, you'll be right the vast majority of the time. The question is can you identify a real threat when the factors come together for winter weather?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I agree ntxw, that is why I said much of the south, Austin/I-10 corridor due east. Dallas and north and points east still might catch a miracle.

[Texas Snowman]

Our beloved expert on all things related to Hot Air posts his daily "No Snow For You" post and now we're trying to write off the entire month of February?

Because of a model run or two? The same models that couldn't agree on whether NYC would get a routine few inches of snow or blasted by a couple of feet of crippling snow?

And the same models that a few days ago were showing a multi-inch rainfall over much of Texas?

Jeepers, if they can't be fully trusted even a couple of days out, how in the world do you trust them for a whole month? Oh for the days of Harold Taft when meteorology was more skill than watching the model runs roll out each day and reacting to them. Only to do it again the next time they roll out. And the next time.

Whether or not this winter delivers anything of substance for those of us on this board that like cold and snow, I don't know.

But I will NOT toss the towel in before January has even run its course.

The same could be said for people who are yelling its going to snow and get cold because one model run shows it 3 weeks out.

Its not about 1 or 2 particular runs of models, its the overall pattern. Its been the same all winter long and isn't going to miraculously change just because its February. Winter for much of the south is about 2/3 done and if nothing has happened by now chances are quickly diminishing that they ever will. And sure it could drop below freezing for one or two nights in Feb but its not going to be a prolonged event. I know this has been said a few times already this winter but its just like the last two hurricane seasons where we went through early and mid season and conditions were horrible and never showed signs of changing yet people were screaming wait 2 weeks, wait 4 weeks, its only october etc etc. And of course nothing ever changed regardless how much the GFS and CMC showed it.

Look I would love nothing less than to be buried in 30+ in of snow like the NE but I'm being a realist about things and not going around chasing rainbows and unicorns.

There is plenty of truth in what you said. But the key to all of this - at least as far as this thread is concerned - is that you mention winter's chances are diminishing rapidly in the South ("Winter for much of the south is about 2/3 done and if nothing has happened by now chances are quickly diminishing that they ever will."). Having lived in Baton Rouge as a kid, I won't argue that.

But I don't live in the South, I live in North Texas along the Red River. And here, over the last 10 years, we've had several significant snowfalls well into the month of March. Last year, we had a fair sleet storm and daytime temps in the teens the first weekend of March. On March 21, 2010, we had five inches of snowfall on my deck while places in Collin County to my south saw as much as nine-inches. And a few years before that, we had a single week in March with a seven-inch snowfall, followed by a day and a half of mild temps and melting, which was followed by an eight-inch snowfall. And nearly 30 years ago when I was in middle school, we even had one significant snow in mid-March...after an 80-degree afternoon the day before.

So while the chance for winter weather is indeed winding down where you live - and I'm afraid, for SE and Central Texas too - it's got several weeks to go in a fair bit of the Lone Star State. Even if we don't see any rainbows or unicorns.

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile cold front has slipped through here and falling temperatures, what a relief! Cedar Fever finally getting some help instantly, the brisk north winds is a plus.

[wxman57]

None of you will like the 12Z GFS. No significant winter weather for Texas through the 14th. Perhaps a light freeze from Dallas south to Houston next Thu/Fri but zonal flow increases after then and the cold air stays north.

[Tireman4]

From a Meteorologist whom I respect a ton. Greg Fischel at WRAL in Raleigh, North Carolina posted this on his Facebook page. Again, this is why I like him so much..

A colleague of mine, who I like and highly respect, posted a blog this morning suggesting that conveying levels of uncertainty in a weather forecast only muddies the water, and that when push comes to shove, the meteorologist has to make a call. I guess I have a different take. Why pretend to be certain when you're not? There are many forecast situations that are slam dunks with a very high level of confidence. But, there are some with a very low degree of confidence, and many times these are the situations that have the greatest potential impact. I would think that all of you would want to know how much confidence we have, and what the potential scenarios are. Now for government officials, in my mind, you ALWAYS plan for the worst. Even if there's only a 20% chance of something horrific happening, if you don't plan for it and it happens, you've got big trouble on your hands. What do you think? And you won't hurt my feelings if you disagree with me

[wxman57]

If all you do is talk down winter weather on the gulf coast, you'll be right the vast majority of the time. The question is can you identify a real threat when the factors come together for winter weather?

Don't confuse my posts with "talking down" winter weather. I'd love to see it snow in Houston. That's the only good reason for cold weather. However, I'm going to have to see some hard evidence of a pattern change and something more than a 10-day GFS panel to convince me it's going to snow. Back in the first week of December of 2004 I made a bet with a client that we (Houston) would see snow on Christmas Eve. I won that bet.

[wxman57]

From a Meteorologist whom I respect a ton. Greg Fischel at WRAL in Raleigh, North Carolina posted this on his Facebook page. Again, this is why I like him so much..

A colleague of mine, who I like and highly respect, posted a blog this morning suggesting that conveying levels of uncertainty in a weather forecast only muddies the water, and that when push comes to shove, the meteorologist has to make a call. I guess I have a different take. Why pretend to be certain when you're not? There are many forecast situations that are slam dunks with a very high level of confidence. But, there are some with a very low degree of confidence, and many times these are the situations that have the greatest potential impact. I would think that all of you would want to know how much confidence we have, and what the potential scenarios are. Now for government officials, in my mind, you ALWAYS plan for the worst. Even if there's only a 20% chance of something horrific happening, if you don't plan for it and it happens, you've got big trouble on your hands. What do you think? And you won't hurt my feelings if you disagree with me

I made a presentation at the National Hurricane Conference last year on dealing with uncertainty in the forecasts (with respect to hurricanes). It's important to understand the level of uncertainty but also to understand that actions must be taken regardless in many cases.

[Texas Snowman]

We'll see (12Z GFS). If memory serves correct though, it wasn't too many weeks ago that after a few chilly looking model runs, I seem to recall that someone was talking about maybe needing to consider a move to someplace a little warmer.

But we all know how that turned out - you're still here.

BTW, today, you're beginning to sound a lot like that teacher in the Charlie Brown TV specials.

"Wah, wah, wah, wah, wah."