2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[AlphaToOmega]

Based on CFSv2 and EPS guidance, it seems like we could have a sustained burst of activity from mid-October to November. Just like August and somewhat like September, October could be another very busy month in terms of activity and in terms of impacts.

[psyclone]

I for one in my personal opinion think the season is over for conus and Florida. Maybe something weak subtropical in nature which is always possible this time of the yr in the Caribbean.

Other then that smooth sailing till 2022

I agree and the writing has been on the wall for awhile now. I never would have imagined that Ida would have been our only major US impact this year but that appears now likely. At this point, If we get a storm in the caribbean it is vastly more likely to either move into central america or slip by to the east like Michelle in 2001. No one seems to stick around to do a late "season over" type post...they just depart the scene which has largely already happened. Now if it could just cool off...

[gatorcane]

I for one in my personal opinion think the season is over for conus and Florida. Maybe something weak subtropical in nature which is always possible this time of the yr in the Caribbean.

Other then that smooth sailing till 2022

I agree and the writing has been on the wall for awhile now. I never would have imagined that Ida would have been our only major US impact this year but that appears now likely. At this point, If we get a storm in the caribbean it is vastly more likely to either move into central america or slip by to the east like Michelle in 2001. No one seems to stick around to do a late "season over" type post...they just depart the scene which has largely already happened. Now if it could just cool off...

I think we need to wait through all of October and even keep an eye on early November still in South Florida particularly this year with the strong La Niña as well as the fact we are seeing above normal temps here for the foreseeable future. I still will be shocked if the Western Caribbean does not produce anything rest of season.

[Teban54]

Friendly reminder: Wilma formed on October 15 and hit Florida on October 24.

Not expecting a Wilma this year, but a storm doesn't need to form before October 8 or some arbitrary cutoff to threaten the CONUS, even if it's nowhere near as anomalous as Kate '85 or Zeta '20.

[Category5Kaiju]

And just like that, the recent GFS run now shows a robustly developing WCAR system by the October 22-24 timeframe. Unfortunately the run does not go long enough to see what happens next, but perhaps this is a sign that the operational model is starting to pick up on the idea that a favorable CCKW is going to pass by the Atlantic mid-month and contribute to a final burst in activity sooner rather than later???

[Hammy]

A bit off-topic, but yet another reminder of how unrealistic the GFS' modelling of cold fronts can be:
https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1446659795298263044?s=20

This is a long term problem with the GFS and has become a horrendous false advertiser during winter with cold weather or snow. With this large of an error, it would have significant implications regarding the shear levels in the Caribbean and East Coast, likely not being as favorable as it shows.

Wouldn’t a huge, deep cold front like the ones the GFS constantly shows increase the shear over the Caribbean instead of lowering it?

But the GFS tends to overdo those types of fronts, and I was replying to an instance of that seemingly being the case. The model is practically of no use beyond 120 hours.

[CyclonicFury]

Based on CFSv2 and EPS guidance, it seems like we could have a sustained burst of activity from mid-October to November. Just like August and somewhat like September, October could be another very busy month in terms of activity and in terms of impacts.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pf6mWc8G/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/m2t78wQP/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-3.png
https://i.postimg.cc/SN3C5MrD/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-4.png

I'm just not seeing support for a burst in mid-October anymore. The ensembles are awfully dead for the next 2 weeks which would take us into late October. Although the operational ECMWF struggled with the Caribbean genesis last year, the EPS usually had a signal well in advance. 92L could become a weak, short lived Wanda, but aside from that, it appears as if the quiet period will continue for at least another week.

You were right about September, but it definitely seems to be trending towards a much less active Caribbean late season than I was anticipating. We could still see something late in the month, but our chances of a strong Caribbean hurricane decrease each day.

[Category5Kaiju]

Based on CFSv2 and EPS guidance, it seems like we could have a sustained burst of activity from mid-October to November. Just like August and somewhat like September, October could be another very busy month in terms of activity and in terms of impacts.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pf6mWc8G/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/m2t78wQP/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-3.png
https://i.postimg.cc/SN3C5MrD/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-4.png

I'm just not seeing support for a burst in mid-October anymore. The ensembles are awfully dead for the next 2 weeks which would take us into late October. Although the operational ECMWF struggled with the Caribbean genesis last year, the EPS usually had a signal well in advance. 92L could become a weak, short lived Wanda, but aside from that, it appears as if the quiet period will continue for at least another week.

You were right about September, but it definitely seems to be trending towards a much less active Caribbean late season than I was anticipating. We could still see something late in the month, but our chances of a strong Caribbean hurricane decrease each day.

Maybe we should ask ourselves why the ensembles think activity this October would be very light. Do they think that the EPAC will somehow become very active, or is it something else? I personally am curious to find out, because not getting anything significant given the pretty decent sst anomalies and the moderate La Niña signature (oh yeah and with the oncoming favorable CCKW in mind) imho does not make sense

[aspen]

This is just weird.


A clearly developing La Nina, but with exceptionally above-average EPac SSTAs that could produce major soon, and no signal of Atlantic activity. You'd think the atmosphere would've responded to the huge swath of -SSTAs in the equatorial Pacific by now.

[MarioProtVI]

Based on CFSv2 and EPS guidance, it seems like we could have a sustained burst of activity from mid-October to November. Just like August and somewhat like September, October could be another very busy month in terms of activity and in terms of impacts.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pf6mWc8G/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/m2t78wQP/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-3.png
https://i.postimg.cc/SN3C5MrD/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-4.png

I'm just not seeing support for a burst in mid-October anymore. The ensembles are awfully dead for the next 2 weeks which would take us into late October. Although the operational ECMWF struggled with the Caribbean genesis last year, the EPS usually had a signal well in advance. 92L could become a weak, short lived Wanda, but aside from that, it appears as if the quiet period will continue for at least another week.

You were right about September, but it definitely seems to be trending towards a much less active Caribbean late season than I was anticipating. We could still see something late in the month, but our chances of a strong Caribbean hurricane decrease each day.

Models didn’t see an active August like we had so the signal is likely refusing to show since it has been shown to struggle with MJO/CCKW progression, which I think is what is happening here.

[Category5Kaiju]

Based on CFSv2 and EPS guidance, it seems like we could have a sustained burst of activity from mid-October to November. Just like August and somewhat like September, October could be another very busy month in terms of activity and in terms of impacts.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pf6mWc8G/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/m2t78wQP/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-3.png
https://i.postimg.cc/SN3C5MrD/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-4.png

I'm just not seeing support for a burst in mid-October anymore. The ensembles are awfully dead for the next 2 weeks which would take us into late October. Although the operational ECMWF struggled with the Caribbean genesis last year, the EPS usually had a signal well in advance. 92L could become a weak, short lived Wanda, but aside from that, it appears as if the quiet period will continue for at least another week.

You were right about September, but it definitely seems to be trending towards a much less active Caribbean late season than I was anticipating. We could still see something late in the month, but our chances of a strong Caribbean hurricane decrease each day.

Models didn’t see an active August like we had so the signal is likely refusing to show since it has been shown to struggle with MJO/CCKW progression, which I think is what is happening here.

Yeah honestly you make a pretty good point here; I remember these kinds of discussions in the indicators thread in August before Fred and Grace really showed off their true mights as the models kept showing stuff in the EPAC/WPAC but not in the Atlantic in the near future; it seems to me that once again the models are "bootlicking" the EPAC while turning a cold eye toward the Atlantic as they think the EPAC is going to produce more storms after Pamela later this month. Unless, we get some weird sort of "La Nino" pattern that suddenly favors the EPAC and shuts down the Atlantic for the rest of the season and leaves me scratching my head for eternity

[AlphaToOmega]

I'm just not seeing support for a burst in mid-October anymore. The ensembles are awfully dead for the next 2 weeks which would take us into late October. Although the operational ECMWF struggled with the Caribbean genesis last year, the EPS usually had a signal well in advance. 92L could become a weak, short lived Wanda, but aside from that, it appears as if the quiet period will continue for at least another week.

You were right about September, but it definitely seems to be trending towards a much less active Caribbean late season than I was anticipating. We could still see something late in the month, but our chances of a strong Caribbean hurricane decrease each day.

Models didn’t see an active August like we had so the signal is likely refusing to show since it has been shown to struggle with MJO/CCKW progression, which I think is what is happening here.

Yeah honestly you make a pretty good point here; I remember these kinds of discussions in the indicators thread in August before Fred and Grace really showed off their true mights as the models kept showing stuff in the EPAC/WPAC but not in the Atlantic in the near future; it seems to me that once again the models are "bootlicking" the EPAC while turning a cold eye toward the Atlantic as they think the EPAC is going to produce more storms after Pamela later this month. Unless, we get some weird sort of "La Nino" pattern that suddenly favors the EPAC and shuts down the Atlantic for the rest of the season and leaves me scratching my head for eternity

1983-1984 was a La Nina, but October 1983 featured three major hurricanes in the East Pacific. However, I am not sure if you noticed, but conditions are *slightly* different now than they were in 1983 , so it is probably still just a bias.

[aspen]

Based on CFSv2 and EPS guidance, it seems like we could have a sustained burst of activity from mid-October to November. Just like August and somewhat like September, October could be another very busy month in terms of activity and in terms of impacts.

https://i.postimg.cc/Pf6mWc8G/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/m2t78wQP/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-3.png
https://i.postimg.cc/SN3C5MrD/cfs-avg-chi200-Mean-global-4.png

I'm just not seeing support for a burst in mid-October anymore. The ensembles are awfully dead for the next 2 weeks which would take us into late October. Although the operational ECMWF struggled with the Caribbean genesis last year, the EPS usually had a signal well in advance. 92L could become a weak, short lived Wanda, but aside from that, it appears as if the quiet period will continue for at least another week.

You were right about September, but it definitely seems to be trending towards a much less active Caribbean late season than I was anticipating. We could still see something late in the month, but our chances of a strong Caribbean hurricane decrease each day.

Models didn’t see an active August like we had so the signal is likely refusing to show since it has been shown to struggle with MJO/CCKW progression, which I think is what is happening here.

This is reminding me of August too. Perhaps October could act like August where the brunt of its activity is in the last half of the month due to the suppressive Kelvin wave being replaced by an enhanced one, a transition that the models are failing to catch on to. The difference is that late October into early November will probably be limited to like 3 TCs maximum because, well, it’s Oct/Nov and not Aug/Sept.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also, it's something that I think is very important to understand now that we're here, but in typical weak or moderate La Nina years, October-November typically feature anywhere from 2-5ish NSs, not 7 like last year, and 1-2 majors, not 5 like last year. While I am not expecting anything super crazy like 3 November Cat 5 hurricanes, I am still expecting roughly 2 West Atlantic major hurricanes between now and November 30. I would think that such would be able to occur anytime starting later this month.

[Ubuntwo]

Models have converged on the MJO propagating. It may establish itself in the western hemisphere into November, though the model spread remains quite high.
Here's the euro and its ensembles.

[Ubuntwo]

CFS height anomalies in early November, around the time the western basin should be favored for development. This pattern favors a Caribbean track buried into Central America or recurving through the Greater Antilles.

Very intense upper level winds suggest nothing threatening is forming within the Gulf.
As soon as SFL gets its first dry season front we will be in the clear. No hints of said front in the models. So we keep watching...

clarified ambiguity

[Nuno]

I'm just not seeing support for a burst in mid-October anymore. The ensembles are awfully dead for the next 2 weeks which would take us into late October.

The support isn't there until it is. We know how it is with ensembles. Maybe they're right but all of a sudden this forum has lost their appetite for "climo".

[Category5Kaiju]

At least according to the recent GFS run, I sincerely think that a model-not-catching the MJO/CCKW bias may be why the Atlantic does not see anything significant form in the next 16 days; after Pamela, the EPAC falls silent, while the WPAC is somewhat active but does not produce any major typhoons. Yeah, something’s fishy here.

[Hammy]

Despite the intensity backoff compared to last week, the CFS still shows two systems in the Caribbean--one in middle and one in late October, along with some intermittent MDR development and a Gulf system that is on and off of the model. So that seems to further support the GFS not correctly reading where the more favorable conditions are farther out.

[Category5Kaiju]

Despite the intensity backoff compared to last week, the CFS still shows two systems in the Caribbean--one in middle and one in late October, along with some intermittent MDR development and a Gulf system that is on and off of the model. So that seems to further support the GFS not correctly reading where the more favorable conditions are farther out.

You know I gotta say, at this point in time I believe the CFS's solution to be more plausible than the operational GFS's.