ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

What a day it has been! We saw about 4-5 feet of surge in the bay. A few trees down and roads are covered with debris but it looks like my area survived with no structural damage, I dont know why they even issued evac orders for my county, I didn't leave and I'm glad I didn't. My prayers are with our neighbors to the east, looks like lots and lots of destruction. What a storm that was crazy to track, I remember when people were doubting it to even become a cat 1. Remember when we all laughed at the HWRF model?

I think you answered your own question as to why the issued evacuation orders for your county. A storm that got far stronger than almost every model and professional forecasted, along with a chance that the track could deviate further west. I think erring on the side of caution and issuing an evacuation order for the largest population center in the landfall risk area was probably a solid call, as opposed to an equally likely hypothetical: a direct impact from a strengthening major hurricane and no evacuation order.

[p1nheadlarry]

First damage report from Mexico beach. This is Andrew like damage.

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1050090556104331264

I question that's Mexico beach. They're in a high rise.

There's one hotel on the right side of 98 with four or five stories near Toucan's. I'm sad.

[Abdullah]

Where's the site you can find the live number of people without power?

[supercane4867]

Early photos of damage in Mexico Beach

[chaser1]

What a tight core this storm had. The damage, flooding, and loss that occured in Panama City and Mexico Beach is dramatic. On the other hand, I'm not hearing any reports or seeing any video from Apalachacola?! I have been reading repeated storm surge updates for a particular spot there, where 5'-7' depths were occuring. That's it though. Anyone know or hear how widespread damage was there? Same for Crawfordville. I would think they'd be getting wrap around bands blasting them with gusts to hurricane force, yet it appears they are getting very minimal impact.

[Abdullah]

I think I know what can be safely said.
It had a pressure 3 millibars lower than Andrew's at landfall. 10 mph below with its Wind Speed, but it was much bigger. Very tight core.
This was The Panhandle's Andrew.

[Agua]

Where's the site you can find the live number of people without power?

For the next week at least, probably the census.

[supercane4867]

Train cars tipped over in Panama City, but not as badily damaged as the one in Laber Day hurricane.(The train was thrown out of railway in 1935 storm)

[Abdullah]

Where's the site you can find the live number of people without power?

For the next week at least, probably the census.

Gave me a good laugh.

But wasn't there a site after Irma that showed how much power loss had occured? I remember using it on the way back from Irma to check whether our house had power or not.

[Abdullah]

Where's the site you can find the live number of people without power?

For the next week at least, probably the census.

Gave me a good laugh.

But wasn't there a site after Irma that showed how much power loss had occured? I remember using it on the way back from Irma to check whether our house had power or not.

Found it. I doubt that number greatly, though.
http://www.fplmaps.com/index.html

[birdwomn]

Where's the site you can find the live number of people without power?

For the next week at least, probably the census.

Gave me a good laugh.

But wasn't there a site after Irma that showed how much power loss had occured? I remember using it on the way back from Irma to check whether our house had power or not.

I think it is by power company. For Instance, Here is the one for Duke Energy: https://www.duke-energy.com/outages/current-outages-m
And the one for Gulf Power: https://outagemap.gulfpower.com/external/default.html

[Evil Jeremy]

What a day it has been! We saw about 4-5 feet of surge in the bay. A few trees down and roads are covered with debris but it looks like my area survived with no structural damage, I dont know why they even issued evac orders for my county, I didn't leave and I'm glad I didn't. My prayers are with our neighbors to the east, looks like lots and lots of destruction. What a storm that was crazy to track, I remember when people were doubting it to even become a cat 1. Remember when we all laughed at the HWRF model?

Because of forecast uncertainty. Unfortunately when things don’t pan out for an area people think “I’m glad I didn’t leave” or “Why did I leave” and are less likely to evacuate next time. Then there’s a storm that DOES verify or turns out even worse than expected (e.g. your neighbors) and people wish they had left if they’re not dead.

You have a lot to learn about Hurricane forecasting.

EDIT: Some point today, crossed 5,000 posts. Neat!

[supercane4867]

That's something you expect to see in a storm like Andrew or Camille

 https://twitter.com/NimbusStorms/status/1050137995255398402

[Abdullah]

Not sure if anyone noticed, but this is the 6 PM Update


...6 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE...

LOCATION...31.1N 84.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.56 INCHES

Don't think it'll be Major at 7:00

[johngaltfla]

For the next week at least, probably the census.

Gave me a good laugh.

But wasn't there a site after Irma that showed how much power loss had occured? I remember using it on the way back from Irma to check whether our house had power or not.

I think it is by power company. For Instance, Here is the one for Duke Energy: https://www.duke-energy.com/outages/current-outages-m
And the one for Gulf Power: https://outagemap.gulfpower.com/external/default.html

Estimates on our local news as of 5 pm were for 260K plus without power. I'm sure that will increase as they power down grids for repairs.

[Kazmit]

Considering that it usually takes the wind some time to catch up with the pressure drops, imagine if Michael had another 3-4 hours over water.

It probably would have if it didn't speed up a bit. Wasn't it supposed to landfall around 4pm?

[chaser1]

Adair has relo'd to Port ST Joe, I believe thanks to our Rail Dawg. Hospital there is 25 feet above sea level. At the marina for now until surge moves in.

Am glad to hear Adair relocated.

I won’t judge a fellow chaser because we all make our own decisions.

I’m not relocating because Big Truck is my only method of supply. I can’t afford to lose it as I would then be out of the survival gear.

Adair getting to a hospital is good. I would do that except there’s no parking garage there to protect the truck.

Good luck Adair! We’re with you in spirit. Starting to really blow here in Panama City Beach.

I'm just going back and catching up on some of the many posts and experiences. So Rail Dog, it wasn't you who relocated Adair to that hospital in Port St. Joe? I did see a long dash-cam of his where he ultimately had to bail because of the oncoming storm surge. But I thought he found shelter from the people in that house that he was parked up against?

[Buck]

Wow, Mexico Beach looks as bad as I feared.

[Ken711]

Adair has relo'd to Port ST Joe, I believe thanks to our Rail Dawg. Hospital there is 25 feet above sea level. At the marina for now until surge moves in.

Am glad to hear Adair relocated.

I won’t judge a fellow chaser because we all make our own decisions.

I’m not relocating because Big Truck is my only method of supply. I can’t afford to lose it as I would then be out of the survival gear.

Adair getting to a hospital is good. I would do that except there’s no parking garage there to protect the truck.

Good luck Adair! We’re with you in spirit. Starting to really blow here in Panama City Beach.

I'm just going back and catching up on some of the many posts and experiences. So Rail Dog, it wasn't you who relocated Adair to that hospital in Port St. Joe? I did see a long dash-cam of his where he ultimately had to bail because of the oncoming storm surge. But I thought he found shelter from the people in that house that he was parked up against?

That's where I assumed he went. The surge was coming in fast and he wouldn't have had a lot time to seek shelter at that point.

[johngaltfla]

Not sure if anyone noticed, but this is the 6 PM Update


...6 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE...

LOCATION...31.1N 84.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WNW OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.56 INCHES

Don't think it'll be Major at 7:00

Sooo, last time I saw a NHC Category 2/3 advisory for Albany, Ga was, uh, never?!?