Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ntxw]

High is squashing it on the GFS, but does develop an ULL over Oklahoma while everyone is cold. Not anything too big, but it's definitely different.

This is the coldest run of the GFS yet based on 850c that it has shown for a long time now. Perhaps trending yet still?

[iorange55]

High is squashing it on the GFS, but does develop an ULL over Oklahoma while everyone is cold. Not anything too big, but it's definitely different.

Looked like we got most of the strong precip instead of north of here too. I mean it's rain on this run, but I thought the GFS had most of the moisture north of us last night? I can't seem to remember though.

If it gets cold too fast here I guess that would set up an ice event?

After one model down I would say the decision to be moved to the ICU is still in limbo.

[Ntxw]

Looked like we got most of the strong precip instead of north of here too. I mean it's rain on this run, but I thought the GFS had most of the moisture north of us last night? I can't seem to remember though.

If it gets cold too fast here I guess that would set up an ice event?

After one model down I would say the decision to be moved to the ICU is still in limbo.

Yep I believe so. It's all on how cold and strong the push of cold air is. Lets see what the Canadians say!

[Rgv20]

The new 0z GFS quite colder than the 12z GFS the 0c 850 its close to brownsville as oppose to the prior run that had it around Dallas. almost forgot at 12z Thursday

[Metalicwx220]

We'll need to keep an eye on the northern stream energy. If we can get that piece to die out and not be so much of a factor until the east coast, I think we stand a chance. H5 maps look good, with that kind of ridging I don't like the GFS' progressive nature (it does have that tendency). I think it will dig a little more than that.

BTW for all those wanting to get excited (optimism here). Take a look at this blizzard on the GFS.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/1654/gfspcp240m.gif

I can't find this map this far out. Do you know where to access it?

Look here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... amer.shtml

Choose the model run time (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, or 18Z). Choose the panel size (course, medium or fine) according to your monitor size (medium works well for a 19-24" monitor). Then choose from either the "10m-Wnd 06hr Pcpn" column or click the link at the top to go to the upper-air GFS graphics and choose from the "MSLP 1000 - 500mb" column.

I also like to look at the twister site for GFS snow accumulation maps. Go here:
http://www.twisterdata.com/

Click the "GFS" tab up top and open the "Winter" section in the left navigation frame. Choose "snow depth" from the list of winter panels then navigate to the hour you want to look at. In addition, this map is clickable to produce an atmospheric sounding for wherever you click on the map.[/quote]
Sorry LOL you know the deal!! How do you bookmark these mages?

[Ntxw]

B/W charts of Canadian 1061mb coming into Montana wow, that's a first.

Just a few weeks ago we were in shock and awe that the models had 1050s up in NW Canada lol 200 hours out.

[iorange55]

Dang and this is not that far out now. I'm anxious to see how cold it gets.

[BigB0882]

Don't worry, for some inexplicable reason the cold won't get past Oklahoma. lol

[Ntxw]

Canadian is showing a classic, and I mean classic plunge straight down the rockies spine. So much in fact the east side of the country is warming up just as much in reverse lol.

It's becoming more clear that this is not a typical storm (huge swirling mass of winds winding up). Again, baroclinic zone...

[downsouthman1]

Canadian is showing a classic, and I mean classic plunge straight down the rockies spine. So much in fact the east side of the country is warming up just as much in reverse lol.

The GEM almost appears to me to be showing the energy never really leaving the South/Southwest.

[Ntxw]

Canadian is showing a classic, and I mean classic plunge straight down the rockies spine. So much in fact the east side of the country is warming up just as much in reverse lol.

The GEM almost appears to me to be showing the energy never really leaving the South/Southwest.

The high coming in is killing the energy. As I've mentioned before, the moisture is riding the baroclinic zone. Think of it as one giant frontal lifting system. Maybe the pro mets can explain it better.

[BigB0882]

Is it even going to get cool in Louisiana or is there any chance it might nudge East enough to get over here? I'm not sure if ANY of the models show the cold coming my way, at this point. Such a change from 3-4 days ago.

[downsouthman1]

Canadian is showing a classic, and I mean classic plunge straight down the rockies spine. So much in fact the east side of the country is warming up just as much in reverse lol.

The GEM almost appears to me to be showing the energy never really leaving the South/Southwest.

The high coming in is killing the energy. As I've mentioned before, the moisture is riding the baroclinic zone. Think of it as one giant frontal lifting system. Maybe the pro mets can explain it better.

I think I kind of get that now after researching baroclinic zones. So, correct me if I'm wrong but, the system is essentially following a temperature gradient, for example 550 or so thickness layer, meaning that no matter where the storm goes along the baroclinic zone, the weather will be mainly constant, rain, then moisture being scoured as the cold, drier air intrudes.

[Ntxw]

I can't really explain it well, I have little knowledge of something like that. Seems there's going to be a front and the surface low will track along the front, not much of an upper level low. Overrunning it seems, so at least for us if the cold air outruns everything, there would be ice somewhere.

[iorange55]

Man I'm really interested in next week. I can't wait to see it moving down the US

[iorange55]

Nothing groundbreaking in the Euro. Looks like the initial surge of the cold air might have a bit of a push further south into North Texas. Not sure if that would cause any problems or not.

Up to 144hr now. Energy still out to the west but it's staying out there.

168hr things look a little interesting. So in conclusion not a terrible set of runs and the Euro gives a little excitement 168hr or so, we shall see. No ICU yet.

[Rgv20]

WOW a 1060 high coming down to montana


Cold air packing quite a punch

[PTrackerLA]

Is it even going to get cool in Louisiana or is there any chance it might nudge East enough to get over here? I'm not sure if ANY of the models show the cold coming my way, at this point. Such a change from 3-4 days ago.

Latest GFS output for LFT shows at least 3 nights of below freezing temperatures with it getting into the upper 20s () one night. If this cold air sinks further south like some think I'd expect quite a bit colder than that. Today felt like spring, bluebird skies and 71 degrees! But winter isn't quite done with us yet. I think we have another round of hard freezes coming our way. We've already essentially tied the amount of freezes we received last winter, which was considered to be the coldest since the 90's. Even if things warm up after the next 10-14 days most will remember winter '10-'11 a cold one. La Nada!

[iorange55]

Can't sleep, but the 06z nam looks impressive.

1056mb at 84hr it was 1058 on 78hr

[wall_cloud]

I would assume it will be 55 degrees and falling on Wednesday. The fact that the low the night before is the same as the high the next day must mean that both occur right around midnight. You could fall into the 40's or lower as the day goes on. Not sure exactly where you are.

Just to clarify so you understand the NWS forecasts, WFOs do not forecast highs/lows over the 24 hour period. The overnight low is the lowest recorded temperature between the hours of (01z-14z or 7PM-8AM in CST) and the highs occur between 13z-02z (7AM-8PM CST). Midnight has no relevance in an NWS forecast product, only in the climate products.

In all likelihood, the forecast you are discussing likely has the 55 degrees in the grids during the 13z hour with falling temps beyond.