Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

Advisory for 2-4 here... Color me surprised it's that high. Most of the talk has been a dusting or an inch

That would be our best storm in 3 years if it verifies

[bubba hotep]

EPS ticked up again. It's about as good as I've seen for our region for that model set. At least since Feb 21 down south/east.

Hopefully, temps are a couple of degrees cooler across the board and everyone can cash in.

[wxman22]

Wichita Falls is now under a winter weather advisory for up to 2 inches.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
1233 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

OKZ004>031-033>040-044-TXZ086-089-090-091200-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WW.Y.0002.250109T1200Z-250110T1400Z/
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Cotton-Wichita-Archer-Clay-
Including the cities of Alva, Buffalo, Kingfisher, Blanchard,
Prague, Enid, Arnett, Stroud, Temple, Guthrie, Medford,
Weatherford, Seiling, Oklahoma City, Scotland, Granite, Wewoka,
Frederick, Duncan, Cherokee, Gage, Okarche, Wellston, Tuttle,
Walters, Watonga, Blackwell, Stillwater, Leedey, Cheyenne,
Newcastle, Helena, Archer City, Wakita, Geary, Woodward, Norman,
Shattuck, Hammon, Hobart, Laverne, Perry, Taloga, Carmen, Hinton,
Lamont, Seminole, Wynnewood, Elk City, Lakeside City, Henrietta,
Vici, Moore, Holliday, Chickasha, Mustang, Cordell, Purcell,
Hennessey, Yukon, Clinton, Fargo, El Reno, Altus, Pauls Valley,
Fairview, Sheppard AFB, Shawnee, Hollis, Wichita Falls, Okeene,
Chandler, Burns Flat, Anadarko, Sentinel, Lawton, Meeker,
Lindsay, Concho, Davenport, Pond Creek, Snyder, Ponca City,
Sayre, and Mangum
1233 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, northern, northwest,
southern, southwest, and western Oklahoma and northern Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Thursday to 8 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Thursday morning and evening commutes.

[Ntxw]

Only thing worse than getting global models 4x a day, now in short range you get to look every hour...

[Iceresistance]

Wichita Falls is now under a winter weather advisory for up to 2 inches.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
1233 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

OKZ004>031-033>040-044-TXZ086-089-090-091200-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WW.Y.0002.250109T1200Z-250110T1400Z/
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Cotton-Wichita-Archer-Clay-
Including the cities of Alva, Buffalo, Kingfisher, Blanchard,
Prague, Enid, Arnett, Stroud, Temple, Guthrie, Medford,
Weatherford, Seiling, Oklahoma City, Scotland, Granite, Wewoka,
Frederick, Duncan, Cherokee, Gage, Okarche, Wellston, Tuttle,
Walters, Watonga, Blackwell, Stillwater, Leedey, Cheyenne,
Newcastle, Helena, Archer City, Wakita, Geary, Woodward, Norman,
Shattuck, Hammon, Hobart, Laverne, Perry, Taloga, Carmen, Hinton,
Lamont, Seminole, Wynnewood, Elk City, Lakeside City, Henrietta,
Vici, Moore, Holliday, Chickasha, Mustang, Cordell, Purcell,
Hennessey, Yukon, Clinton, Fargo, El Reno, Altus, Pauls Valley,
Fairview, Sheppard AFB, Shawnee, Hollis, Wichita Falls, Okeene,
Chandler, Burns Flat, Anadarko, Sentinel, Lawton, Meeker,
Lindsay, Concho, Davenport, Pond Creek, Snyder, Ponca City,
Sayre, and Mangum
1233 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, northern, northwest,
southern, southwest, and western Oklahoma and northern Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Thursday to 8 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Thursday morning and evening commutes.

I'm in the Winter Weather Advisory too!

[Brent]

Wichita Falls is now under a winter weather advisory for up to 2 inches.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
1233 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

OKZ004>031-033>040-044-TXZ086-089-090-091200-
/O.EXB.KOUN.WW.Y.0002.250109T1200Z-250110T1400Z/
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Cotton-Wichita-Archer-Clay-
Including the cities of Alva, Buffalo, Kingfisher, Blanchard,
Prague, Enid, Arnett, Stroud, Temple, Guthrie, Medford,
Weatherford, Seiling, Oklahoma City, Scotland, Granite, Wewoka,
Frederick, Duncan, Cherokee, Gage, Okarche, Wellston, Tuttle,
Walters, Watonga, Blackwell, Stillwater, Leedey, Cheyenne,
Newcastle, Helena, Archer City, Wakita, Geary, Woodward, Norman,
Shattuck, Hammon, Hobart, Laverne, Perry, Taloga, Carmen, Hinton,
Lamont, Seminole, Wynnewood, Elk City, Lakeside City, Henrietta,
Vici, Moore, Holliday, Chickasha, Mustang, Cordell, Purcell,
Hennessey, Yukon, Clinton, Fargo, El Reno, Altus, Pauls Valley,
Fairview, Sheppard AFB, Shawnee, Hollis, Wichita Falls, Okeene,
Chandler, Burns Flat, Anadarko, Sentinel, Lawton, Meeker,
Lindsay, Concho, Davenport, Pond Creek, Snyder, Ponca City,
Sayre, and Mangum
1233 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, northern, northwest,
southern, southwest, and western Oklahoma and northern Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Thursday to 8 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Thursday morning and evening commutes.

Yeah I'm feeling pretty good here... There's no question there's been an up trend on the models after yesterday's low point. I mean we had people talking about a dusting last night

[WacoWx]

Noaa.gov finally dropped my point forecast in Dallas from a high of 36 to 33 tomorrow, and what was a low of 34 to 30. HUGE.

[Winter_Wisher]

I am choosing to only look at Euro model, most accurate with DFW getting 7-9 inches. Just trust me, I have no experience in this.

[HockeyTx82]

I am choosing to only look at Euro model, most accurate with DFW getting 7-9 inches. Just trust me, I have no experience in this.

Are you with the government? If so, I fully and completely trust you, no questions asked!

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 to be far the ensembles and most op runs were never bullish about anything happening next week, trame frame has always been late month, that looks like a potentially more potent arctic airmass centered more over the central US, might be our best opportunity for widespread winter weather across the entire state

Correct, which I mentioned above, but this is a pattern transition that we're about to see and when that occurs you start looking for more cold to be centered further west with time as opposed to being centered more east as we've seen courtesy of our +PNA to a large extent. I was probably jumping the gun too quickly on that once I saw limited model support yesterday and a few runs prior. Process can take a little longer but we're seeing signs of that in the longer range as has been discussed.

[orangeblood]

EPS ticked up again. It's about as good as I've seen for our region for that model set. At least since Feb 21 down south/east.

Yep, it's now clustering in the 6-10" range for DFW and continues to send a stronger signal to the FW NWS office. That office is now chasing totals and will likely continue doing so towards this ENS Mean range

[Lagreeneyes03]

I think we've got two more weeks of winter to watch for before things begin to warm up heading into Feb. Too soon to say if winter is over after that but definitely looks as it stands right now that as we transition we could see one or two more shots before winter takes a break for a bit.

Early Spring?/ 100 degrees by May? Bring it!

[Stratton23]

Lagreeneys03 um yeah no lol

[HockeyTx82]

EPS ticked up again. It's about as good as I've seen for our region for that model set. At least since Feb 21 down south/east.

Yep, it's now clustering in the 6-10" range for DFW and continues to send a stronger signal to the FW NWS office. That office is now chasing totals and will likely continue doing so towards this ENS Mean range

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1736337600/1736337600-hZtkYu4z3dU.png

Okay so this is one model with an extreme, right? Why should we take this one verbatim that it's the actual solution? Or is it just crying out for attention and people are just avoiding it because it's so just left field?

Also you say DFW, are we talking about proper or the surrounding counties included in that?

[txtwister78]

Meanwhile the NBM trended a little lower and so it's going to be an interesting model "fight" to see what transpires with these accumulations. I just think something is wrong with the euro algorithm when it comes to these marginal events where it is overdoing snowfall totals in a big way but hey we won't have to wait long to figure all that out.

[orangeblood]

EPS ticked up again. It's about as good as I've seen for our region for that model set. At least since Feb 21 down south/east.

Yep, it's now clustering in the 6-10" range for DFW and continues to send a stronger signal to the FW NWS office. That office is now chasing totals and will likely continue doing so towards this ENS Mean range

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1736337600/1736337600-hZtkYu4z3dU.png

Okay so this is one model with an extreme, right? Why should we take this one verbatim that it's the actual solution? Or is it just crying out for attention and people are just avoiding it because it's so just left field?

I wouldn't read it as actual verbatim snow totals, some of this is likely a mix of sleet/frz rain but most is likely snow. Even if you cut these totals by 25-50%, you're looking at 4-8" across the Metroplex. This is a mean of 50 iterations of individual members....it's a really strong signal!

[orangeblood]

Meanwhile the NBM trended a little lower and so it's going to be an interesting model "fight" to see what transpires with these accumulations. I just think something is wrong with the euro algorithm when it comes to these marginal events where it is overdoing snowfall totals in a big way but hey we won't have to wait long to figure all that out.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nbm-conus/tx/total_snow/1736348400/1736834400-UaTJkTzkg0s.png

I like the NBM is some setups but not particularly this one...it overweights models that don't have the resolution to perform well with these marginal warm noses so it causes these snow outputs to be skewed too much towards the lower end. Precip totals I think its useful but probably not when you're talking the high resolution needed for this setup.

[Portastorm]

EPS ticked up again. It's about as good as I've seen for our region for that model set. At least since Feb 21 down south/east.

Yep, it's now clustering in the 6-10" range for DFW and continues to send a stronger signal to the FW NWS office. That office is now chasing totals and will likely continue doing so towards this ENS Mean range

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/ecmwf-ensemble/KDFW/indiv_snow/1736337600/1736337600-hZtkYu4z3dU.png

"That office is now chasing totals" No, they're not! They've mentioned in their last few forecast discussions that excessive snowfall totals are possible in isolated areas. What they're not doing is forecasting a general 6-10" snowfall just to go along with a computer model.

They're forecasting 2-4" along and north of I-20 with isolated amounts possibly higher. That seems pretty generous actually considering what the latest model blends suggest.

[Ralph's Weather]

SHV expanded warning to include all of the former watch and added an advisory for counties south of I20. I see Advisories are now issued down to Del Rio for all of the Hill Country west of I-35.

To go along with that I expect them to upgrade grids to match here along I-20.

I see that East Texas where the sun is shining bright is warming up impressively with temps already into the mid 40s.

[txtwister78]

SHV expanded warning to include all of the former watch and added an advisory for counties south of I20. I see Advisories are now issued down to Del Rio for all of the Hill Country west of I-35.

To go along with that I expect them to upgrade grids to match here along I-20.

Yup, temps further south have trended few degrees colder as new Hi-Res models have shown to where out over the southern HC this could create some light icing on elevated overpasses and bridges with the possibility of a little light snow on the back end as precip begins to move clear the area early Friday morning.