TC Bertha

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow, did Bertha really reverse here EWRC? The outer eye has completely fallen apart and the inner one is taking control again....has this ever happened before?

[Cyclenall]

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL REMNANT
OF BERTHA IS FINALLY DISSIPATING

It actually came back stronger then it had during the previous 18 hours. Recon today showed 25% of it still remains.

[cycloneye]

Still a hurricane:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[KWT]

Looks like its just hanging on still, inner eyewall remains open as well, so 65kts seems about right but it does seem to be very much the case that Bertha is on a slow weakening trend.

[Tampa_God]

I don't know guys, have we come to agreement that this storm has developed it's center south-east of it's earlier location? After doing some old school plotting and tracking and looking at some radars, I must say by 100%, that this storm is either heading Southeast or has reformed it's ciirculation.

[wxman57]

Looks like Bertha's likely a TS now. Plane couldn't find any evidence of hurricane-force winds with SFMR. They're just keeping it a hurricane in case it intensifies a little.

[KWT]

Agreed wxman57 I think it looks very messy right now, though the SFMR can be a little low in some systems, I think Dean was an exmaple of that last year but in this case I think the estimates from that are about right.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
Her appearance looks more "full" convection wise. It may not be deep convection, but there aren't any "open areas" like earlier.

[RL3AO]

Discussion for Tropical Storm Elida.

BERTHA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/15 KT. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SOUTH OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS...BUT
OTHERWISE IS UNCHANGED.

[Brent]

Discussion for Tropical Storm Elida.

BERTHA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/15 KT. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SOUTH OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS...BUT
OTHERWISE IS UNCHANGED.

I bet they wish Bertha was moving "briskly"

Anyway, I think Bertha is going to slowly die in the next few days if it doesn't start moving. It looks a lot worse today than it did yesterday,

[KWT]

Yeah the structure still looks decent on a system wide basis but the convection is getting slowly more and more shallow as the temps keep dropping underneath it thanks to upwelling.

[hiflyer]

Sure glad this system is dying cause Bermuda 500 km radar shows something that looks like an eye now reforming and drifting SW....grin...about 250 km SSE of Bermuda.

http://199.172.239.3/gemamet/login3.jsp

Choose the MAX Z

[KWT]

I wouldn't depend on radar, that far out thet are probably seeing way way abnove the surface and as far out as that is I wouldn't put all that much trust in it!

[Cyclenall]

Discussion for Tropical Storm Elida.

BERTHA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/15 KT. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SOUTH OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS...BUT
OTHERWISE IS UNCHANGED.

It still says Bertha. How long before it is corrected?

Hurricane Bertha looks a little better then it did 5 hours ago. The inner eye wall is still trying to win the battle.

[weatherguru18]

Yeah, next advisory I think we can welcome back Tropical Storm Bertha. Latest Quikscat shows only about 60 kt. winds.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

[DanKellFla]

All your ACE are belong to us.

[brunota2003]

All your ACE are belong to us.

Only a Hurricane Nut would say...

[DanKellFla]

But serioiusly, can that be calculated for an active storm? If so, what is BERTHAs ACE?

[RL3AO]

But serioiusly, can that be calculated for an active storm? If so, what is BERTHAs ACE?

Code: Select all

Storm   Type   ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur)   Operational   0.3675
02L (Bertha)   Operational   17.7175
Total      18.085

[senorpepr]

But serioiusly, can that be calculated for an active storm? If so, what is BERTHAs ACE?

That depends on how you calculate it. It you use the provisional operational advisories, Bertha's ACE would be 18.1400 (as of 12/21Z). If you use the current best track, Bertha's ACE would be 18.0050 (as of 12/18Z).