ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[jasons2k]

This is a reminder to all that one should NEVER forecast a major hurricane without VERY STRONG SIGNALS for it (ala Andrew, Katrina, etc.).

NEVER forecast one without OVERWHELMING evidence... never!!!

Don't panic because of the (very inaccurate) GFDL/HWRF intensity forecasts in the medium to long ranges!

Just to be fair, many people who said this could become a major (I know myself and Derek included) all along had the caveat "if it can avoid Hispaniola".

Also, we don't know what we'll be looking at 3 days from now with a system possibly over very warm waters and an excellent environment. The wave that became Katrina was written-off by most as "poof" at one time.

[CourierPR]

Center looks to be on the ne coast of DR moving slightly north of west , Interaction with the big island is going to be key to how strong this can get.

I agree with center placement and movement and apparently the NHC does also.

[Steve H.]

You are correct. Like I said a few posts back, it just north of the eastern portion of the DR. It will be partially inland as it rides the coast til leaving the DR. THat's when the fun starts.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031815.GIF

Circulation very visible.

[Pearl River]

Translated version:

Dominican INSTITUTE OF AVIACION CIVIL NATIONAL OFFICE OF METEOROLOGIA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGIA GENERAL DIVISION OF METEOROLOGIA SINOPTICA AND PRONOSTICOS BULLETIN OF DIFUSION IMMEDIATE NOTICE AND WARNING OF SUDDEN FLOODS FRIDAY 15 OF AUGUST 2008…….……………………………………12:00 MIDDAY THE NATIONAL OFFICE OF METEOROLOGIA, FROM THIS MOMENT MAINTAINS A WARNING AGAINST GROWN AND SUDDEN FLOODS OF RIOS, STREAMS AND GLENS IN THE HIGH-RISK ZONES OF THE REGION NORTH, WHILE A NOTICE FOR THE REGIONS is EMITTED THIS, NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEAST being EXPECTED VALUES OF RAINS BETWEEN 40 AND 125 MILIMETROS, BEING SUPERIORS IN ZONES OF MOUNTAINS, PRODUCT OF THE ACTIVITY OF RAINSTORMS WITH STORMS ELECTRICAS AND RAFAGAS OF OCCASIONAL WINDS, THAT HAVE BEGUN TO be REGISTERED SINCE FIRST HOURS IN THE MORNING AND THAT they CONTINUED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE I GAVE OF TODAY, AS A RESULT OF A ZONE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, WHICH PRESENTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO be DEVELOPED IN A CICLON TROPICAL. IN THIS SENSE, THE POBLACION IN THE ZONES is RECOMMENDED BEFORE MENTIONED TO GIVE HIM A CONSTANT MONITORING TO THE BULLETINS OF THIS ONAMET AND TO THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE EMERGENCIES OPERATIONS CENTER. ON THE OTHER HAND is RECOMMENDED THE CONDUCTORS OF MOTOR VEHICLES TO TAKE THE MEASURES OF PRECAUTION BY THE REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY AND POSSIBLE SLIDINGS OF THE UNTIDY SANDS BY THE RAINS. METEOROLOGO: BOLIVAR LEDESMA

[AtlanticWind]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Looking athe rader loop center is just off hte tip of the DR , may have to cross the whole Island , could really disrupt the storm.

[blp]

No thoughts on this Vorticity map?

Looking at the vorticity map, you would think any center would be north of puerto rico. I am just wondering why that is not the case.

I think once the MLC that is moving SW dies out I expect a strong burst to occur in that area. I think whatever LLC we have will be in that area.

Correction, now looking at the Visible it does look like it just off the NE coast of DR.

[Weatherfreak14]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031815.GIF

Circulation very visible.

I see this too, i feel that this thing is right on track... now we can hope that convection will not burst on that.

[Bocadude85]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Looking athe rader loop center is just off hte tip of the DR , may have to cross the whole Island , could really disrupt the storm.

Do not use the san juan rader us the one out of the DR you can see the circulation much better

[jenmrk]

I normally lurk- but I just read over at "HC "this-
Out of Miami-
"channel 10 just broke in to say the plane found a low pressure center in the mona passage "
also this
"Just broke on Fox News...said T.S. by 5 pm tonight "

I just thought I would pass it on if it is in fact true.

[HURAKAN]

[blp]

I am thinking in its current postion if it manages to skirt the coast I would think that would allow the LLC to tighten up and since the MLC will be dying off over DR this could actually allow the LLC to finally take over. Of course this assumes that the LLC just skirts the coast.

[Vortex]

looks more and more likely this gets into the gulf either via a florida or cuba connection and from there need i say more in mid august...

[MiamiensisWx]

looks more and more likely this gets into the gulf either via a florida or cuba connection and from there need i say more in mid august...

From 1851 to 2007, there have been NO major hurricane landfalls on Florida via systems that crossed Hispaniola within ~65 nmi of 92L's current position in August.

Anyone who expects a TC stronger than Cat 1/2 intensity is delusional.

[alicia83]

[img]http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/
HURAKAN5/GOES16552008228bjqfEW.jpg[/img]

I've just been watching and reading, but it looks to me like the southern and northern circulations have just joined together if I can believe my eyes.

Hmmm. Don't know how my quote went wrong.

[gatorcane]

Hispaniola seems to be having no effect yet. Looks pretty good still:

[DESTRUCTION5]

looks more and more likely this gets into the gulf either via a florida or cuba connection and from there need i say more in mid august...

From 1851 to 2007, there have been NO major hurricane landfalls on Florida via systems that crossed Hispaniola within ~65 nmi of 92L's current position in August.

Anyone who expects a TC stronger than Cat 1/2 intensity is delusional.

Georges? not that im saying this is anythign like him.,,

[CourierPR]

I normally lurk- but I just read over at "HC "this-
Out of Miami-
"channel 10 just broke in to say the plane found a low pressure center in the mona passage "
also this
"Just broke on Fox News...said T.S. by 5 pm tonight "

I just thought I would pass it on if it is in fact true.

Yes, and Channel 10 doesn't hype storm threats.

[HeatherAKC]

(I hope I didn't double post this...) For the SFlorida Peeps....


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1205 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

...ALL PERSONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER INFORMATION...

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY OVER THE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM YET, ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION AND THE SYSTEM COULD REACH
DEPRESSION OR STORM STATUS LATER TODAY.

COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD POSE A THREAT TO
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A VERY HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA
AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AS A
RESULT, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ENCOURAGED TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE PLANS.
VISITORS TO SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK WITH HOTELS AND
LOCAL OFFICIALS REGARDING INITIAL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS THAT MAY NEED
TO BE INITIATED THIS WEEKEND. THE FOLLOWING ARE BASIC SUGGESTED
ACTIONS THAT SHOULD BE TAKEN AT THIS TIME:

CHECK BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS, DRINKING WATER, CANNED
OR DRIED FOOD, FIRST AID SUPPLIES AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINE. HAVE A
SUFFICIENT SUPPLY OF CASH AS ACCESS TO CREDIT CARDS AND AUTOMATED
CASH MACHINES MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE WITHOUT POWER. CHECK FUEL LEVELS
ON AUTOMOBILES, GENERATORS AND CHAIN SAWS.

MAKE INITIAL PLANS TO DETERMINE WHERE YOU WILL LIKELY BE IN CASE OF
AN APPROACHING STORM. CHECK WHETHER YOU LIVE IN AN EVACUATION ZONE.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SITUATION, PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, AS WELL AS INFORMATION FROM LOCAL
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND MEDIA OUTLETS. YOU CAN ALSO MONITOR THE
LATEST STATEMENTS, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS, FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIAMI ON THE WEB AT
WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
MOLLEDA

[Blown Away]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031815.GIF

Circulation very visible.

Please post a satellite map with a mark showing the location.