ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[amawea]

AFM,

Why are initializations off by so much. This is frustrating, so many local mets here in Houston still counting on the Corpus landfall and so many in government not pulling the trigger to force anything to happen. I'm worried that in the end many people will be hurt and/or trapped on highways they didn't think they would be on for more than a few hours. Why can't we erre on the side of caution????

I'm not AFM and I am not speaking for him, but I think I know why they initialize off. The data is being input to the model too late. By the time it's put in and comes out as a prediction it's a few hrs off.

[3ABirdMan]

1st - My apology for including the graphic, but my question is ABOUT the graphic, so......

2nd - Is the EURO listed as one of the models in the above graphic? I asked about the GFS (AVNO) earlier, and was answered. Just not sure if I'm looking at output from the EURO as well. (Where's ROCK when I need him )

[Steve]

>>All models now b/w Aransas Pass and GLS.

Super interesting and excellent call from a few days out. I've been too storm weary to even think about solutions so I've left it up to you guys to help me out with Ike. Wondering if the models will settle up there or possibly a hair one way or the other. I could see greater Harris County seeing the Baton Rouge effect. I mean I'm in the Parish where the eye came ashore and it wasn't anywhere near what they got up there.
-----------------------------------
Hey Pablo,

The real props there go to the UKMET which is literally outstanding at 120 hours. 5 days cone is something like 300-400 miles (don't feel like looking it up) and closing as years go by. But that's pretty crazy to be only 165 miles off for that time period.

Steve

[gboudx]

UKMET?

[Steve]

European not in that plot birdman.

Steve

[superdeluxe]

GFDL at 60 hours:

Cat1?!

Thats because its over land.

[HurricaneRobert]

I thought Euro was ECMWF. It took a long time to figure that one out.

[gatorcane]

MOdels are in excellent agreement on a Texas hit at this point....this is the real deal folks for those in Texas. It's prudent to rush preparations to completion.

In Florida's case, the models were not in such excellent agreement so I'll be honest, it would take a miracle for Texas to not have some major impacts at this point.

From those of us in Florida who managed to get lucky with Ike, our thoughts and prayers reach out to those in Texas in Ike's path.

[3ABirdMan]

European not in that plot birdman.

Steve

Thanks. After researching out the "names" of the models, I didn't think it was, but the only sure way is to ask!

[southerngale]

[amawea]

AFM has been nailing this since it came off of Cuba. Pay attention to what he has to say. It has consistently shifted east since Monday.

[shah8]

Hey guys, remember that HWRF model? The one that said 899mb at SETX? How well is the track verifying current positions?

I can't find that particular model...what day and time was it?

[Steve]

Hang tough gale. Might be a few ugly days your way.

Steve

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Well Jim C. is in Galveston if I heard correctly. We know what that means. Ha Ha.

Ha ha! I immediately asked where Stephanie Abrahms(?) was, since we saw her keep getting smacked a few years back whenever she went into the field. It seemed they placed her is less likely landfalls than Cantore, but wherever she wound up, they would hit!

-But Nikki just reminded me that she was in the studio tonite. But wherever they do decide to put her....watch out.

got a feeling stephanie might in freeport tomorrow, just a feeling

[amawea]

Hey Steve, I see your in Bayou Lafourche. My wifes brother lived in Houma. We used to go down there once and a while. She's from Jeanerette.

[Steve]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Early cycle intensity if no one posted it yet. FWIW, Derek's got it hitting 120k which I asked him about in his thread.
---------------------------------------
>>Hey Steve, I see your in Bayou Lafourche. My wifes brother lived in Houma. We used to go down there once and a while. She's from Jeanerette.

I'm over in Lockport which is somewhat east of Houma but you can't get there unless you go up the bayou and over or down the bayou and over. I'm from New Orleans, but it's definitely an interesting part of the world down here. We all got a pretty good ***** slap from Gustav but nothing too crazy. Just finished watching my brother in law wire up the house for the generator so we won't lose any power or central ac (will require two generators but we've got the gasoline to deal with it right now).

Steve

[Shoshana]

Updates are out

[Nederlander]

pretty significant shift for the NHC...

[A1A]

Not good for Houston . . . and no time for an mass evacuation!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I hate how the NHC forecast tracks use straight lines. That sharp turn Ike takes between Saturday at 7pm and Sunday at 7pm is pretty comical. lol.