ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[kevin]

New dropsonde measured 140 kt at the surface, this is a cat 5.

Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
951mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 140 knots (161 mph)
945mb 85° (from the E) 139 knots (160 mph)
938mb 95° (from the E) 160 knots (184 mph)
936mb 95° (from the E) 162 knots (186 mph)
930mb 100° (from the E) 149 knots (171 mph)
916mb 105° (from the ESE) 135 knots (155 mph)
906mb 105° (from the ESE) 136 knots (157 mph)
899mb 105° (from the ESE) 130 knots (150 mph)
883mb 110° (from the ESE) 127 knots (146 mph)
863mb 105° (from the ESE) 136 knots (157 mph)
850mb 115° (from the ESE) 124 knots (143 mph)
760mb 125° (from the SE) 147 knots (169 mph)

Source ?

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?aircraft_page=NOAA3&product_page=sonde

[artist]

Be sure to check out hurricanetrack Mark Sudduth new forum here and his live webcams
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRtCqZwRQY

[Michele B]

Eyewall degrading somewhat on radar. Wouldn't be surprised if Ida maintained 130 knots all the way until landfall.

There's a reason landfalling Cat 5s are so rare. Its really, really hard to keep that machine running perfectly close to land.

Thank God!

[TallyTracker]

New dropsonde measured 140 kt at the surface, this is a cat 5.

Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
951mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 140 knots (161 mph)
945mb 85° (from the E) 139 knots (160 mph)
938mb 95° (from the E) 160 knots (184 mph)
936mb 95° (from the E) 162 knots (186 mph)
930mb 100° (from the E) 149 knots (171 mph)
916mb 105° (from the ESE) 135 knots (155 mph)
906mb 105° (from the ESE) 136 knots (157 mph)
899mb 105° (from the ESE) 130 knots (150 mph)
883mb 110° (from the ESE) 127 knots (146 mph)
863mb 105° (from the ESE) 136 knots (157 mph)
850mb 115° (from the ESE) 124 knots (143 mph)
760mb 125° (from the SE) 147 knots (169 mph)

Dropsondes are instantaneous winds which are essentially gusts. There needs to be more evidence such as corroborating flight level winds (150 kts+) or surface observations.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

New dropsonde measured 140 kt at the surface, this is a cat 5.

Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
951mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 140 knots (161 mph)
945mb 85° (from the E) 139 knots (160 mph)
938mb 95° (from the E) 160 knots (184 mph)
936mb 95° (from the E) 162 knots (186 mph)
930mb 100° (from the E) 149 knots (171 mph)
916mb 105° (from the ESE) 135 knots (155 mph)
906mb 105° (from the ESE) 136 knots (157 mph)
899mb 105° (from the ESE) 130 knots (150 mph)
883mb 110° (from the ESE) 127 knots (146 mph)
863mb 105° (from the ESE) 136 knots (157 mph)
850mb 115° (from the ESE) 124 knots (143 mph)
760mb 125° (from the SE) 147 knots (169 mph)

No. These are gusts.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1431970215567364103

[aspen]

New dropsonde measured 140 kt at the surface, this is a cat 5.

Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
951mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 140 knots (161 mph)
945mb 85° (from the E) 139 knots (160 mph)
938mb 95° (from the E) 160 knots (184 mph)
936mb 95° (from the E) 162 knots (186 mph)
930mb 100° (from the E) 149 knots (171 mph)
916mb 105° (from the ESE) 135 knots (155 mph)
906mb 105° (from the ESE) 136 knots (157 mph)
899mb 105° (from the ESE) 130 knots (150 mph)
883mb 110° (from the ESE) 127 knots (146 mph)
863mb 105° (from the ESE) 136 knots (157 mph)
850mb 115° (from the ESE) 124 knots (143 mph)
760mb 125° (from the SE) 147 knots (169 mph)

I think the NHC will go with 135 kt unless we see some 150kt FL winds on the upcoming AF pass. FL/SFMR winds still only support 130 kt. That doesn’t change the sheer magnitude of Ida’s impact.

[kevin]

Here's the image of the dropsonde.

[NDG]

Destructive beauty just about 3 hours from making landfall. I pray for the many people that stayed behind.

[Highteeld]

Get the mean wind in the lowest 150m to 155 kt, and you could justify an upgrade there. Probably not quite yet though.

[NDG]

New dropsonde measured 140 kt at the surface, this is a cat 5.

Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
951mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 140 knots (161 mph)
945mb 85° (from the E) 139 knots (160 mph)
938mb 95° (from the E) 160 knots (184 mph)
936mb 95° (from the E) 162 knots (186 mph)
930mb 100° (from the E) 149 knots (171 mph)
916mb 105° (from the ESE) 135 knots (155 mph)
906mb 105° (from the ESE) 136 knots (157 mph)
899mb 105° (from the ESE) 130 knots (150 mph)
883mb 110° (from the ESE) 127 knots (146 mph)
863mb 105° (from the ESE) 136 knots (157 mph)
850mb 115° (from the ESE) 124 knots (143 mph)
760mb 125° (from the SE) 147 knots (169 mph)

I think the NHC will go with 135 kt unless we see some 150kt FL winds on the upcoming AF pass. FL/SFMR winds still only support 130 kt. That doesn’t change the sheer magnitude of Ida’s impact.

They usually don't go with dropsonde readings for intensity.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Be sure to check out hurricanetrack Mark Sudduth new forum here and his live webcams
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPRtCqZwRQY

Thanks. Do you have any other livestreams of people in Ida? It's been hard for me to find any lol

[kevin]

AF305 is going for another pass of the NE Eyewall, let's see what they find.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/CrockettWDSU/status/1431963484649033731

[Kohlecane]

Unless the plot is off AF might miss that NE eyewall

[GCANE]

Strong helicity south of the eye with a strong tornado signature.
This will likely rotate and get onshore once Ida makes landfall.
Heads up NOLA and MS coast

[tolakram]

saved loop


source: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=745.125&y=739.25&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[Teban54]

Unless the plot is off AF might miss that NE eyewall

Looks to me like they're trying to avoid land

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1431970953366581254

[aspen]

Convection around the eye has gotten deeper and more symmetrical in the last few hours. The AF plane could find higher FL winds in the NE quadrant and possibly extrapolated pressures in the mid 920s.