Texas Winter 2017-2018

[stormlover2013]

Y’all were all jumping on the Gfs band wagon talkin about how it beat euro and blah blah, told y’all not to believe these models till about 2 days before event.

[Cpv17]

Y’all were all jumping on the Gfs band wagon talkin about how it beat euro and blah blah, told y’all not to believe these models till about 2 days before event.

Yes, and we still are because the GFS was the first one to sniff it out and remain consistent with it.

[Brent]

The Euro is now colder than the GFS

[Cpv17]

This is why the GFS is so much warmer now. Amazing difference for just two days. Too much zonal flow.

[Ralph's Weather]

The global.models struggle mightily with zonal flow and a strong surface high. The cold will still be there just very shallow and a constant, gradual fall in temps.

[sphelps8681]

I was reading back a week before the December 7th- 8th snow event on the KHOU Weather Board and it wasn't until Tuesday when the shorter range Mesoscale Models where within 48 hours of that event starting that we had somewhat of a clue that there was a chance of a wintry mix and at 48 hours those shorter term models where guessing mostly a Coastal Counties event versus what really happened. Keep that in the back of your mind when attempting to analyze what may occur Monday into Tuesday.

The afternoon Updated Surface Charts for Monday and Tuesday hint at a wave of low pressure in the NW Gulf with a Coastal trough. Also it is not often we see the Weather Prediction Center indicate a 1056 Artic high over Nebraska New Year's Day. I certainly believe it's going to be much colder than the early December snow event. As far as an precipitation falling through that cold air, that's the $64,000 question.

Yeah I still think central and southeast TX has a shot of seeing some frozen precip on Tuesday as that disturbance moves across the region. We'll see what the models show in the next few days. Canadian continues to show it, and the Euro jumped on board at 0z. This time period certainly has me intrigued.

My local weather shows 40% percip of snow showers on local news website for Tuesday.

[stormlover2013]

Lol Gfs is so different now, hasn’t been consistent for 2 days now

[Brent]

at the GFS having 70s today a week ago. I had forgotten about that.

[Cpv17]

Lol Gfs is so different now, hasn’t been consistent for 2 days now

The GFS pretty much always backs down on the cold in this range though. It’s consistent on doing that lol

[stormlover2013]

makes our brain hurt!! LOL

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well fellas, the cold is building as we speak. Any good current maps we can look at with temps and pressures?

My friends laugh at me because im all about the future weather and cant show them much about whats going on now lol.

[Snowman67]

-42F in Rae Lakes (NW Territories, Canada)

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/ca/rae-lakes/CYRA

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, what do we need for a good opportunity at a winter event for the southern plains and mid south moving forward? So far, the epo and wpo been ruling the roost. Do we need a different phase of mjo? The stj has shut off on us lol

[Tejas89]

Doesn’t seem FW NWS changed their area forecast much at all from this morning’s. Frigid NY day and next day. Are we in the midst of coldest period since Feb. 2011?

[hamburgerman7070]

I read something about strong convection in the Indian ocean leading to ridge over Alaska in extended. That's why I mentioned about stj being cut off since we got the cold air in place right now. A good SSW event could do the trick if it happens. Ntxw, how long can this cold pattern last? Any ideas?

[Lagreeneyes03]

:lol: at the GFS having 70s today a week ago. I had forgotten about that.

If it's dry, I'd rather have that than this cold, for sure.

[sphelps8681]

:lol: at the GFS having 70s today a week ago. I had forgotten about that.

If it's dry, I'd rather have that than this cold, for sure.

Got my husband a depth finder for his boat and he is dying to test it out cold not good warm better. I also would rather have 70s all day long.

[Portastorm]

Heh ... there’s a 9-degree difference between the 18z NAM and GFS for Austin at midnight NYE. Former has us at 30. Latter at 39!

Gotta love these model runs.

[hamburgerman7070]

What you think about my statements bubba? Can you chime in? You are very knowledgeable

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I read something about strong convection in the Indian ocean leading to ridge over Alaska in extended. That's why I mentioned about stj being cut off since we got the cold air in place right now. A good SSW event could do the trick if it happens. Ntxw, how long can this cold pattern last? Any ideas?

Right now I see no end in sight thru week 2 of January. It’s hard to break a strong Pacific pattern once it fuels.