Ivan Advisories

[WESTCHESTERPA]

God is sparing all the good weed

[Brent]

Thanks for the answers

The lower the pressure, the stronger

The higher the pressure, the weaker

When the pressure goes up, it's weakening

When the pressure goes down, it's strengthening

[FLAgirl]

If the eyewall extends 30 miles from the eye, and the eye is only 35 miles from Kingston, which is right on the coast, what difference would 5 miles make when you're talking about 155 mph winds? Let's not split hairs here. They are experiencing terrifying winds any way you cut it.

[tropicsgal]

Oh my goodness,i'm inbetween Pensacola and Panama City. Wherever Frances goes i hope everyone who is in her path will get out of the way.I hope it's not this strong comi,that is if it comes into the Gulf.ng into the Gulf

[ColdFront77]

Come on guys, quit confusing BUD. the bottomline to me is that he misunderstood that the lower the pressure the greater the winds. BUD if you were asking something different please tell me.

Sorry, Bill. I answered him with the truth.

You're welcome, BUD.

[calidoug]

The eyewall is not the eye. It is not infinitely thin, either.

It looks like "The Alley" is embedded in the eyewall as of 0245Z.

That said, 0315Z shows a jog just SOUTH of due W. (land interaction forces?)

[LakeToho]

LakeToho , what is your issue. I have seen you be rude to several different people on this forum today. This person made a post and provided data. I am not sure why you are attacking/insulting people but do us a favor in RELAX. This board is for people to post and share ideas. That means even if you do not agree.

dw

Thanks for straightening me out.. I apologize to everyone..

[mobilebay]

I agree to a point . However, if this is so why didn't Gilbert and others do this. I think the Ridge has dipped a little in that small area. Any thoughts?

[dennis1x1]

the eyewall is 30 miles offshore....period.....and the eyewall nor greatest winds are 30 miles wide.


30 miles is not splitting hairs....probably the difference between 100mph sustained and 140 or 150......enormous difference

[MW98GT]

Charley looped around jamaica, although not major then.

[Lockhart]

? Hurricane-force winds extend 60 miles from the center, which is presently 35 miles off-shore. So, sure, standing right on the beach in Jamaica above the eyewall has awful winds. However, north of there it gets progressively better, and only 25 miles in from the coastline, pretty much, have hurricane-force winds. The closer the eye gets to land, the more of Jamaica enters the circle of radius 60 miles around the center of the storm. So, when the eye is centered on the beach in Jamaica, hurricane-force winds would then be a half-circle 60 miles into Jamaica.

So, as I said, sitting 35 miles offshore means 35 miles of Jamaica is being spared the worst.

[Stormsfury]

I remember reading your thread earlier today, however ... for the last 3 days, the model guidance has been in agreement of a slowdown and a turn back to the left after landfall ... from the GFS to the ECMWF ... 500mb heights rise across the Southeast and practically leaves Ivan (or what's left of Ivan) behind for a short time, and is steered by the building ATL high Day 7 and beyond ... the ECMWF hints at the next northern stream impulse picking up Ivan and POTENTIAL phasing Ivan with the northern stream which would finally act as a kicker to finally get rid of him out of the SE states ...

Much like Frances, severe weather, and potential for tornadoes again looming quite likely as Ivan comes ashore ...

SF

[CaluWxBill]

Come on guys, quit confusing BUD. the bottomline to me is that he misunderstood that the lower the pressure the greater the winds. BUD if you were asking something different please tell me.

Sorry, Bill. I answered him with the truth.

You're welcome, BUD.

With all due respect. Yes you gave very informative information on ingredients necessary to strengthen a hurricane. but, you did not answer his question.

With that being said, I am sure he will gladly accept the information you gave him in building his own knowledge base of hurricanes. Sorry CF I am just being very technical tonight about things.

[MWatkins]

Jamica's prayers have been answered to a small degree as it looks like Ivan will not make a direct hit. The cause of Ivan's west jog? I speculate it is due to Ivan's circulations interaction with Jamacia topography. I read an article years ago that stated that hurricanes can pivot to the left when nearing land. Has anyone else read this and if so can they provide a link so I can reread it........MGC

Yes...I've read that too...especially when approaching high mountians...the result of the downslope winds creates some drag on the center and that could cause it to stay to the south.

However...as you are noting here...it does not indicate some massive shift in the steering layer.

MW

[Stormsfury]

It doesn't mean that Ivan won't resume on a WNW or NW course, but the jog west is occurring at the right time as to NOT cross the island of Jamaica at this time ...

One other thing to note ... EVERY TIME that IVAN has jogged west as seemingly coincided with a deepening cycle ...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... G8vis.html

[wharrell]

Notice the ridge NNE of Ivan pushing down on the storm this evening also. Almost wants to drive Ivan WSW for a while.

[montrealboy]

60 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_50.gif

72 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_50.gif

96 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_50.gif

108 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_50.gif

120 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_50.gif

144 hrs

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/hdd_50.gif

[logybogy]

Most of the models have Ivan going directly over Havana (2 million + people) as a Cat 5 Hurricane.

This will literally obliterate the city since most of the structures are dilapidated and in poor condition.

This may be the end of Castro. Cuba won't be able to survive this disaster without foreign intervention.

[cycloneye]

Let's not bring politics here.There is a political forum in storm2k where you can talk all you want about that person.

[Pebbles]

Well I hope your right! And if that's the case would really love to read up on that too! Said I would eat crow if eye missed Jamaica and I meant that...and would do so Gladly! If anyone does have the link for that theory please post it!