Winter Weather Discussion
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Gotwood
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#3982 Postby Gotwood » Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:26 pm
bag2237 wrote:Gotwood wrote:Browndog wrote:Last time I posted was in ‘21 with all the snow pics and near a foot of snow from the first round. There’s a lot of QPF this time (way more than ‘21), but this is a freezing rain/sleet setup for us. I could see a range of 1” of freezing rain with 1-2” sleet vs best case of 1/4” freezing rain and 3-6” sleet followed by snow. That’s my end points for this event.
We are getting closer and I think reality is finally setting in on what is coming. In talking with friends they are not taking this very seriously. I’m honestly a tad bit concerned at this point those temperatures with this kind of precipitation man.
What are they not doing that they should be? Not covering pipes? Not getting groceries?
They are not canceling travel plans. Plan to still leave Friday night with the expectation of driving 100 miles on Saturday.
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iorange55
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#3983 Postby iorange55 » Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:27 pm
From the NWS forecast:
"Rain or freezing rain before midnight, then freezing rain and sleet. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 22. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%."
Freezing rain with thunder would be, uh, interesting.
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Steve
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#3984 Postby Steve » Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:27 pm
Gotwood wrote:Browndog wrote:Last time I posted was in ‘21 with all the snow pics and near a foot of snow from the first round. There’s a lot of QPF this time (way more than ‘21), but this is a freezing rain/sleet setup for us. I could see a range of 1” of freezing rain with 1-2” sleet vs best case of 1/4” freezing rain and 3-6” sleet followed by snow. That’s my end points for this event.
We are getting closer and I think reality is finally setting in on what is coming. In talking with friends they are not taking this very seriously. I’m honestly a tad bit concerned at this point those temperatures with this kind of precipitation man.
What you gonna do though but try to help people understand the situation. Some people will listen and some will be hardheaded or initially ambivalent until the reality does hit. Hope it’s more of a party storm and only somewhat of a minor aggravation for everyone.
Last edited by
Steve on Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Browndog
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#3985 Postby Browndog » Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:28 pm
I’m splitting the difference for East/NE Texas. I see our area getting 1/4”-1/2” freezing rain and 2-4” sleet with some snow to end the event. More snow north obviously and more freezing rain south. The short term models are bouncing a lot, but the globals are pretty aligned. I think we’ll have a ice/snowpack still intact to welcome the next round end of next week.
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Browndog
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#3986 Postby Browndog » Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:36 pm
And if I can add a suggestion. Event/snow pics are freaking awesome, and we don’t post enough of these. Please share your experience with us as you can. We have some great mods and consistent posters that keep up with the models in real time, but nothing beats a picture to back up our time on this site.
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gpsnowman
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#3987 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:37 pm
Browndog wrote:I’m splitting the difference for East/NE Texas. I see our area getting 1/4”-1/2” freezing rain and 2-4” sleet with some snow to end the event. More snow north obviously and more freezing rain south. The short term models are bouncing a lot, but the globals are pretty aligned. I think we’ll have a ice/snowpack still intact to welcome the next round end of next week.
Excellent point. Does everything melt before the next round next weekend? Signs are there for colder readings through next week before the bottom falls out again. Some melting will occur but the temps won't be as warm as we thought a few days ago.
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HockeyTx82
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#3988 Postby HockeyTx82 » Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:37 pm
Browndog wrote:And if I can add a suggestion. Event/snow pics are freaking awesome, and we don’t post enough of these. Please share your experience with us as you can. We have some great mods and consistent posters that keep up with the models in real time, but nothing beats a picture to back up our time on this site.
I will have a live stream so long as I don't lose internet in power.
I'll post the link once things go live, it'll be on YouTube, it'll be out the front of my second story window.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Browndog
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#3989 Postby Browndog » Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:44 pm
And by the way, I’m working in Texarkana Friday into Saturday night. That looks like ground zero for the first batch. I’ll take pics along the way and plan on driving back to Longview Saturday night. It should be interesting to say the least.
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hurricane2025
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#3990 Postby hurricane2025 » Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:45 pm
18z euro the same lol crazy how much different gfs an euro are
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CaptinCrunch
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#3991 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:47 pm
hurricane2025 wrote:18z euro the same lol crazy how much different gfs an euro are
EURO for the longer range forecast, GFS for the shorter range

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Iceresistance
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#3992 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:51 pm
hurricane2025 wrote:18z euro the same lol crazy how much different gfs an euro are
Except it's a bit more south, I get closer to 18 inches of snow from that one

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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#3993 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Jan 22, 2026 6:57 pm
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
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Ntxw
- Storm2k Moderator

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#3994 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 22, 2026 7:03 pm
Pieces are coming together. 1052mb in Canada coming down, west coast storm taking the dive.


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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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DFWLady
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#3995 Postby DFWLady » Thu Jan 22, 2026 7:04 pm
Hey hey y'all! Been keeping up with everyone's posts but thought I'd login and say hi! I'm about 30 miles north east of dfw, I'll let y'all know what we are seeing! Hoping no power outages this go round! Praying everything shifts south and we get some snow! If not I'm headed to Colorado Feb 5th to play in some! Hope everyone stays safe and warm!
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Quixotic
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#3996 Postby Quixotic » Thu Jan 22, 2026 7:21 pm
I’m leaning more Dec 2013 than Feb 2011. 2013 was a shorter event. 2011 we had thunder sleet initially, a 24 hour pause and then the 4-6” snow thump. This time it looks like a 36 hour event with mostly sleet with a 2” snow thump. 2011 was like maybe an 1” of sleet/ice. Completely undriveable. Once the snow hit traction was available however my front fender was plowing through snow in curb drifts. Either way, it’s better than 85 degree Christmas.
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Quixotic
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#3997 Postby Quixotic » Thu Jan 22, 2026 7:22 pm
Thanks to all the lurkers who signed in. Welcome!
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Brent
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#3998 Postby Brent » Thu Jan 22, 2026 7:27 pm
TWC has 16 inches here in Tulsa
This is insane
I mean after it was 87 on Christmas!
Last edited by
Brent on Thu Jan 22, 2026 7:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Wthrfan
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#3999 Postby Wthrfan » Thu Jan 22, 2026 7:31 pm
The young,dumb and invincible…my son-in-law and his equally naive fiancée are driving from OKC to New Braunfels for a wedding Friday night and plan on driving back to OKC Saturday afternoon! I asked if he had been watching the weather and did he realize some roads may become impassable. His response, “we’ll be fine, just gonna throw some sandbags in the back of my truck.”

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rwfromkansas
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#4000 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Jan 22, 2026 7:36 pm
Browndog wrote:And if I can add a suggestion. Event/snow pics are freaking awesome, and we don’t post enough of these. Please share your experience with us as you can. We have some great mods and consistent posters that keep up with the models in real time, but nothing beats a picture to back up our time on this site.
I just wish it was easier. It took about 5 times to find a link that worked on imgur etc.
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