Ivan Advisories

[logybogy]

This is not politics. This relates to the storm. If a Cat 5 Hurricane passes over Havana, it will be a humanitarian crisis of epic proportations.

That's not storm related?

geez. people here are so touchy.

[PurdueWx80]

Ok, so you all probably know by now that I love this model. It had a decent shift east last night, but still remained west of everything else. It has shifted only slightly further west tonight. The implications of a storm making the track that the GEM has vs. what the GFS has are quite a bit different. The further west this storm goes (I'm ignoring issues of shear for now as I think that will be too difficult to forecast until we get to within 48 hours), the stronger it would potentially be at landfall. The waters adjacent to FL have been touched by Charley (although some have likely recovered now that it's been a month) and most recently Frances (further north and east). The waters just to the west are still quite impressive (84-89 F) and would fully support a Cat 5 at landfall. I wish to alarm no one, I'm just tellin' it like it could be. Either way, the Gulf coast of the United States of America is in for a major hurricane, and if the GEM verifies, this will probably be the worst storm since Andrew (or even Camille). Note...the GFS is now coming in further west and the Eta (which I put about 10% faith in at this time) has a track quite similar to the GEM that you see above. That's all for now.

[Brent]

This may be the end of Castro.

*Sigh*

We can only hope.

[Brent]

Wonderful...

The trend is NOT my friend in this case.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Yeah, I saw where the ETA had it near Pensacola...but I don't know what to think about that one.

[Sanibel]

When the upper half is dragged over mountains or land the lower half still over water spins faster and without any similar drag.

Because one half of the storm is whipping around faster than the other it creates lower pressure. Wind whipping by an object creates a vacuum like a tornado does to houses. The lower half of this storm is whipping around without any obstruction. Because of this is its creating lower pressure than the half over land and mountains. This lopsided pressure creates a vacuum that pulls the storm slightly towards the offshore half. Simply because space is being vacated faster on the unobstructed side of the cyclone.

I would suggest Charley did a similar thing because both storms were riding under a strong sub-tropical ridge. This little nudge in pressure variation allows the ridge to bump it in a south veer...

[MWatkins]

The newest GFS is coming out as I write this and it appears that there are a few changes in it's handling of Ivan:

1. The upper low encroaching from the east will start to break the steering current down. However....the GFS now believes this feature will weaken and exert less influence on the ridge to the NE.

2. It is faster with the great lakes system than the previous runs and now rotates this feature out quickly enough that Ivan does not connect with it.

The result is a track further north along the w FL coast. This by the way will also shift the GFDL and the other guidance westward...if the model does this again in the next few runs then my concern for folks in central and northern FL goes up. But it is VERY good news for the folks in southern Florida.

MW

[mobilebay]

Agree. So for the GFS is the Eastrn outlier. Aslo, the new NOGAPS is further west into west-central florida panhandle. Looks like models are beggining to form a concensus near APP/Panapama city. IMO

[Guest]

This is the trend i have been waiting to see. As i have harped on for days now i do still see a Panhandle hit (or west to New Orleans) But seeing how i have had a little more time to watch things i am starting to zero in on it now which ofcourse is the FL panhandle.

[Aquawind]

Wayy West Alrighty..but still Landfall north of Tampa..and probably stronger..12Z runs should be interesting..

[mobilebay]

This is the trend i have been waiting to see. As i have harped on for days now i do still see a Panhandle hit (or west to New Orleans) But seeing how i have had a little more time to watch things i am starting to zero in on it now which ofcourse is the FL panhandle.

I agree. I'm not being a homer, but I think Panama City. That is about 200 miles or more east of here. If you want to call me a homer go ahead, but it is nowhere near my home. I just thought a South Florida landfall was to for south and East from the get go.

[Sean in New Orleans]

King of Weather---I can't see it coming over my way, yet....Florida panhandle is the bullseye for me...maybe even Mobile, but, we've got some time to watch. This system is entering very weak steering patterns in the next day---mets in New Orleans have been pointing this out, now, for about 36 hours....

[PTPatrick]

Ok... We now have in the FL west coast corner(Cedar key to Sarasota)...a couple models based on GFS.
In the Penacola to St. Marks corner we have...ahem...Canadian, UKMET, NOGAPS, now the GFDL, and ETA.

If I lived in the Panhandle or Alabama I would definately be ready to prepare for this thing. Miamians...I think you can take the shutters down by sunday unless something DRASTIC happens

[BUD]

I hope no matter how big or small IVAN gets he is a monster! I also hope that he will spare more DISTRUCTION AND DEATH that he has already caused in his path.My and my wifes hearts go out to who he has already affected and who else he may affect. I feel this is the worst hurricane season I think I have seen. And does anyone know if TD 10 still is there?I just wish we really knew where IVAN was going to go. Everyone stay safe!!!!

[Ixolib]

Sooooo..... Is it possible that we here on the MS Gulf Coast should consider assuming more concern than we've otherwise had?

[cloud_galaxy]

BBC has reporters in Kingston and Negril writing a log on
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3644228.stm

[Guest]

King of Weather---I can't see it coming over my way, yet....Florida panhandle is the bullseye for me...maybe even Mobile, but, we've got some time to watch. This system is entering very weak steering patterns in the next day---mets in New Orleans have been pointing this out, now, for about 36 hours....

As i said that was in my broader thinking a couple of days ago. Which now have had time to start zeroing in some which like i said is looking to be FL Panhandle. As of now i am alot less concerned about a New Orleans hit. Perhaps as far west as Mobile or MS/AL line.

[mobilebay]

Sooooo..... Is it possible that we here on the MS Gulf Coast should consider assuming more concern than we've otherwise had?

Yes, However, I think (use with caution) that this will be a Florida Panhandle event. East of Destin...IMO

[sponger]

With the NHC admitting regulary their intensity forecasts are marginal at best, I think its a mistake to assume anything but a cat 3-4 land fall or worse. I am not a NHC basher but we are waiting on our friend the shear and good ole dry air and some mountains to save the day. This is a serious storm requiring prepartions for the worse. Just my 2 cents.

[Sean in New Orleans]

King of Weather---I can't see it coming over my way, yet....Florida panhandle is the bullseye for me...maybe even Mobile, but, we've got some time to watch. This system is entering very weak steering patterns in the next day---mets in New Orleans have been pointing this out, now, for about 36 hours....

As i said that was in my broader thinking a couple of days ago. Which now have had time to start zeroing in some which like i said is looking to be FL Panhandle. As of now i am alot less concerned about a New Orleans hit. Perhaps as far west as Mobile or MS/AL line.

Don't get me wrong...we are all watching it very, very closely here...we have local forums here, but, they have too many pranksters on them, at times, for me...but, we are still watching....