CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Steve]

>>06Z GFDL doomsday category 5 headed for Louisiana. I better go grab some popcorn and watch this movie play out!

Hahaha. Katrina or not, a Cat 5 hitting SE LA is doomsday for SE LA, coastal Mississippi and SW Alabama. Again. I doubt we'll see Dean with the diameter of any of our big 2005 storms, so maybe the winds won't be 400 miles across. What the GFDL does in the upper levels is what is important for this run to explain why it gets to its conclusion:

What happens is the ULL retrogrades then dives SW into the Gulf opening the avenue for the hit on Louisiana (the other possibility that 500mb hints at is that it kind of falls apart with the fast approach of Dean).

Here's the loop (500mb vorticity):

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

And the crucial image @ T120:



Steve

[Steve]

Also shows up very well at 300mb (what it's doing and why it has this solution). In no way, shape or form am I buying this solution, just saying what I see it doing:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[Wx_Warrior]

If GFDL is hinting on to something, from Central La on east, they better be prepared!

[HURAKAN]

WOW:





A MONSTER IN THE MAKING. JUST INCREDIBLE. WHAT AN AWAKENING IN JUST A WEEK!!!

[windstorm99]

And to think the action is only starting as far as the 2007 hurricane season...

Note-The GFS is developing 2-3 systems across the basin in the coming week or two.

[Javlin]

When is that ULL to the east of Florida supposed to move out, its still there...You can see it on WV.

MWatkins brings this up at Tropical analysis forum,movement would be W just when and how fast,could be the event that weakens the ridge?and lowers pressurer in the GOM.This scenario remains to seen I would suggest reading his post here I probably butcher it here in my explanation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If GFDL is hinting on to something, from Central La on east, they better be prepared!

And west too. If you extrapolate the GFDL path out, you wind up with a TX/LA landfall.

At this point I think the ENTIRE Gulf of Mexico region needs to be prepared..no one is currently more at risk than anyone else. We will have a much better idea of whether this is a west GOM, central GOM or eastern GOM storm come tomorrow and Sunday as it gets closer and the models come into better agreement.

[HURAKAN]

Look how the eye becomes better defined:





The islands should expect a Cat. 2 or weak Cat. 3.

[Bgator]

Just what if this ULL didnt move, does not look like its moving right now at the moment, when is it forecast to move? And what would it do to Dean?

[ronjon]

Yes, since Dean is forecasted to be so strong by the GFDL, the influence of the upper level flow (300 mb) will be greater than the mid-levels (500 mb). Here is the 300 mb weakness which is influencing the 06Z GFDL run.

[Steve]

Nice post ronjon.
----------------------------------
>>Just what if this ULL didnt move, does not look like its moving right now at the moment, when is it forecast to move? And what would it do to Dean?

Yesterday's early runs (the 00z's so 7pm Tuesday data) had the low cutting off between (I think) 78 and 82 hours out. It's captured and posted somewhere in this thread. We'd be technically down to about 40 hours or so as the butt of the TUTT [tm] starts to split and migrates across Florida either as a cut off or while it's cutting off. It originally preceeded Dean by about 7 degrees (unscientific eyeballing). So it would probably happen sometime on Saturday. I didn't go back and research this stuff or do the math so if my numbers don't add up, I apologize). I'll go back and pull the GFS for its take.

*edit* Okay looks like from the GFS 06z (1am CDT), it is essentially cut off at T-42:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

If my sad *** math is correct, 7pm Friday evening would have been T-42 from 1am this morning.


Steve

[windstorm99]

[Ivanhater]

Oh Heck No....I thought this was in the bag for Mexico last night...ugh..I should of known models would change

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just what if this ULL didnt move, does not look like its moving right now at the moment, when is it forecast to move? And what would it do to Dean?

The 6z GFS keeps it pretty steady for 24-36 hours, then it starts to slightly move it west by 48 hours and it really begins to move west by 72 hours.

Here is the GFS position of it in 96 hrs... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096m.gif

[Sabanic]

Now I am very worried for TX, because of all the
flooding rain they had. Not saying that it will
hit there, but those in TX should be checking
their hurricane kits looking at those latest models...

Dean will be a Western Gulf hurricane. Any slight variations in track could bring him to Texas.Texas is not out of the woods yet by any means

Yeah, if a weakness in the GOM can pull him north like the GFDL and AEMN show, then watch out Texas! However, we still have a good many days to watch this and LOTS can change in that timeframe. The best we can do right now is hope that for some mysterious reason Dean just suddenly dies. Doubt that will happen, but there is always a slim slim chance.

EVERYONE on the Gulf Coast needs to watch closely over the next several days. When a storm is this far out, and the forward speed is like it is now, and could change, many different variables come into play, and the timing is all thrown off. Way too early to declare it any one area's storm yet.

[HollynLA]

Oh Heck No....I thought this was in the bag for Mexico last night...ugh..I should of known models would change

As I'm hoping they will change yet again............

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I was breathing a sigh of cautious relief yesterday.
Even if it turns the ridge should still protect FL
peninsula,
right?

[kozzieman]

If Dean does enter the GOM and if conditions were right could it pose a threat as far east as LA/MS?

[Weatherfreak14]

ive noticed a little wooble to the WNW in the last frames anyone else see this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[DanKellFla]

I think much of the uncertainty comes from the possible interaction with land. If Dean goes over the Yucatan, I will lose trust in the models. Land Interaction is a tough one to predict. If Dean stays over the water the model will have a better handle on things. As usual, we have to wait and see.
I am feeling a little relieved in South Florida, but I remember Wilma, she came from the Yucatan right to my house.