ATL IKE: HPC Advisories

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE TURK AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS AND CAMAGUEY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...105 KM
...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...18 KM/HR
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IKE SHOULD RESUME A TRACK BETWEEN THE
WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHORTLY...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. IKE SHOULD
THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...21.3 N...70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC SUN SEP 07 2008

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA AND HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 70.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 70.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 70.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.0N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.7N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 83.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 70.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA AND HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST...VERY NEAR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY. IKE
SHOULD THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.2 N...70.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE
WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE
A FEW HOURS AGO. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE
THEN...SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE
SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER
AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR. ONCE IKE
MOVES OUT OF CUBA...AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD
REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE
HURRICANE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...MAKE IKE
A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 21.2N 70.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 73.0W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.5W 125 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 21.0N 78.0W 95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT 09/0000Z 21.7N 80.0W 80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
72HR VT 10/0000Z 23.5N 83.5W 85 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE PASSING OVER
THE TURKS ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST...OR OVER THE
TURKS ISLANDS AND ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...EAST OF GREAT INAGUA
ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

IKE IS MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE IN THE TURKS ISLANDS
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 114 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC SUN SEP 07 2008

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND CIENFUEGAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...
CAMAGUEY AND CIEGO DE AVILA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA AND CIENFUEGAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 72.2W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 72.2W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 71.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.0N 74.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.8N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.5N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 125SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 72.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM AST SUN SEP 07 2008

...IKE HEADING FOR GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS....

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY AND CIENFUEGAS.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...
CAMAGUEY AND CIEGO DE AVILA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA AND CIENFUEGAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM
...EAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE
MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCFAFT WAS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...21.1 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

THE EYE OF IKE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE IN THE
TURKS ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 KT AND A PRESSURE OF
975.3 MB AT 0300 UTC. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM
THAT STATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 948 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL OF
121 KT. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/13. IT IS A
LITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN
HAS BEGUN. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS IKE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER DAY
OR SO...BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH WEAKENS A LITTLE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS APPEARS
TO HAVE STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFDL AND
HWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST
EVENING. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALONG THE
LEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON
THE RIGHT SIDE. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE DURING THE 36 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER OF
IKE NEAR THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY IS
DEPENDANT ON HOW LONG IKE INTERACTS WITH LAND. WITH THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST UP THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADIVSORY. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...CONIDITIONS APPREAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY
INTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 21.1N 72.2W 115 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.0N 74.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.6W 125 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.8N 79.0W 85 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 09/0600Z 22.5N 81.1W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 84.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 26.0N 87.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 89.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 071144
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM AST SUN SEP 07 2008

...IKE HEADING FOR GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS....

AT 800 AM...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...
CAMAGUEY AND CIEGO DE AVILA. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST OR JUST EAST OF GREAT
INAGUA ISLAND.

IKE IS MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...24
KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N...72.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 071430
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 07 2008

...EYE OF IKE PASSING OVER GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE
AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA
HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE HABANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES...
25 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 130 MILES
...205 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR..A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
TODAY AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER
CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA. IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N...73.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 071431
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115
KT. A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD
BE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL. HOWEVER... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES...INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY...ARE VERY DIFFICULT
TO ANTICIPATE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS...EITHER UP OR DOWN...IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA
TONIGHT. ONCE INLAND...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE
LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36
HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE
MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER. IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. SINCE THE WATERS OVER
THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH...
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13. IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH
AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA
G-IV...AND THIS DATA...ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 21.0N 73.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 79.9W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.8W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 85.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...CORRECTED FOR TIME...

...EYE OF IKE JUST WEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE
AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE HABANA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST OR JUST WEST OF GREAT
INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 90 MILES...155 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GUANTANAMO CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA. IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N...74.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC SUN SEP 07 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...
CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 74.6W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 180SE 60SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 74.6W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 74.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.7N 78.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.4N 80.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.2N 82.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 91.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 74.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...IKE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...
SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...
CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND
MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM
...WEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND OVER OR NEAR EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA. IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
FROM IKE. PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...74.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

THE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATES THAT IKE HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE. THE PLANE FOUND A PEAK SFMR OF 91 KT AND 107 KT
AT FLIGHT LEVEL. AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 100 KT BUT THE DROP MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED THE HIGHEST WINDS.
WHILE THESE OBSERVATIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER
INTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 945 MB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 105 KT. A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE
PASSES AND REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT AN
OUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE PRIOR TO IKE REACHING CUBA.
ACCORDINGLY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. ONCE INLAND OVER CUBA...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT
THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW LONG THE CENTER
STAYS OVER LAND. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR
APPROXIMATELY 24-36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.
HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH COULD
RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER. IKE IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS
WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW.
IKE'S POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
DEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE ONCE IT EMERGES FROM CUBA.

IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/12. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH WEAKENS. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IN IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING IKE TO THE
NORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THIS PATTERN
WOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT LEFT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS
4 AND 5. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS TOO MUCH ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK...AND IT IS MUCH TOO
EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 21.1N 74.6W 105 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 21.2N 76.5W 100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 78.8W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/0600Z 22.4N 80.8W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.2N 82.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 24.5N 85.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 26.0N 88.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 91.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...MAJOR HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM
...NORTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 30
MILES...45 KM...EAST OF PUNTO DE SAMA ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN
CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATER ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
FROM IKE. PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...75.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC MON SEP 08 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 75.8W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 180SE 60SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 75.8W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 75.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.1N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.8N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.6N 83.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.0N 92.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 75.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...IKE ON THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ON THE NORTH COAST
OF EASTERN CUBA NEAR CABO LUCRETIA ABOUT 135 MILES...220 KM...EAST
OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA MONDAY
MORNING...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATER ON MONDAY...AND NEAR
WESTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. BANES IN THE HOLGUIN PROVINCE OF CUBA...NOT FAR
FROM THE POINT OF LANDFALL...REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 121 MPH...194
KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
FROM IKE. PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...75.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE
LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA. SATELLITE MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE
LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED
THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL
INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST. SFMR AND DROPSONDE
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT
IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
EASTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...TO
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER
THAN EXPECTED. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING....HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING. THE
STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY
BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE
TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF
CUBA. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A
TURN. SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.1N 75.8W 105 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 90 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.1N 79.9W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/1200Z 22.8N 81.7W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 10/0000Z 23.6N 83.5W 80 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 86.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 92.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...

AT 2 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE INAGUAS AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.

AT 2 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...AND FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING THE
INAGUAS AND MAYAGUANA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE
OF GUANTANAMO WESTWARD THROUGH MATANZAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR JUST INLAND NEAR THE
THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS. THIS
POSITION IS 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CUBA
TODAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IKE MOVES OVER CUBA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...76.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[senorpepr]

WTNT34 KNHC 080858
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER CUBA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ADJUSTED ITS WATCHES
AND WARNINGS AS FOLLOWS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED ISLAND. ALL OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR THE BAHAMAS ARE DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE PROVINCES.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM
...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR..AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CUBA
TODAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES OVER CENTRAL CUBA
TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN CUBA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
THROUGHOUT CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...77.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




WTNT44 KNHC 080900
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE BUT
THE EYEWALL IS NOW ENTIRELY OVER LAND AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90
KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN SHOWS LESS WEAKENING OVER LAND
THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...IN THE EVENT THAT THE
CENTER EMERGES OVER WATER SOONER THAN FORECAST. IF IKE FOLLOWS THE
FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND WOULD
ALMOST SURELY BE WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAN SHOWN HERE.
NEVERTHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
CONDUCIVE TO RESTRENGTHENING WITH A VERY DIFLUENT LIGHT SHEAR UPPER
WIND PATTERN AND WARM WATERS BELOW. THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS HOW
DISRUPTED IKE WILL BE WHEN IT EMERGES.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. IKE'S
TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM
NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72
HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5.
THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...MAY
BE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE
ECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT
THOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL
HAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR...I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST
THE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS
HAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
KNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 21.2N 77.3W 90 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 79.0W 75 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 09/0600Z 22.4N 81.2W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 09/1800Z 23.1N 83.0W 60 KT...EMERGING INTO GULF
48HR VT 10/0600Z 23.9N 84.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 87.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 27.0N 90.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 28.5N 93.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

457
WTNT34 KNHC 081156
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE HITTING CUBA HARD...EYE OF OVER CAMAGUEY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED
ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE PROVINCES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35
KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR CENTRAL
CUBA TODAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES
OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-4 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
THROUGHOUT CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...77.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[TampaFl]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081449
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE BATTERING CAMAGUEY CUBA...HEADING WESTWARD FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED
ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND GRAND
CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
70 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 290 MILES...465
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER WATER
NEAR PUNTA MACURIJES IN THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY SOON. IKE
SHOULD THEN MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA TODAY...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY UNTIL IKE MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK COULD KEEP IKE
OVER WATER LONGER RESULTING IN SOME RESTRENGTHENING DURING NEXT DAY
OR SO. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF
IKE'S INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TOMORROW.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[TampaFl]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 081453
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

DESPITE IKE'S TRACK OVER LAND DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO...THE
CYCLONE STILL HAS A GOOD CLOUD SIGNATURE AND RADAR STRUCTURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS ONLY LOWERED TO 85 KT. A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE IKE THIS AFTERNOON AND DETERMINE HOW MUCH
WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER
WILL BE BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF CUBA SOON. IF THIS
MATERIALIZES...IKE MIGHT NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
SHOWN...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY UPWARD WHILE IKE IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN.
IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...AND
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

CUBAN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE
CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/12. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL SOON TURN WEST-NORTHWEST AND TRACK
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS
REQUIRES A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK THROUGH 36
HOURS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHWEST
WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE
SHORTWAVE TO BYPASS IKE TO THE NORTH...AND ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THIS TURN IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
WHICH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. ACCORDINGLY...IT
IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
COULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.1N 78.5W 85 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 21.5N 80.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 22.2N 82.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 23.1N 83.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.1W 80 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 25.5N 87.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 93.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE BACK OVER WATER...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
APPROACHING...

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THAT ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED
ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...
130 KM...WEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 250 MILES...405 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TODAY...MOVE OVER
WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF
IKE'S INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WATER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. JUCARO ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA RECENTLY
REPORTED A GUST TO 86 MPH...138 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TOMORROW.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...21.2 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC MON SEP 08 2008

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS AND RAGGED
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 79.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 79.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.8N 81.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.6N 83.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.4N 86.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.5N 89.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 29.0N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 79.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS AND RAGGED
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 215 MILES...340
KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...MOVE OVER
WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER WATER. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE
RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 965 MB. DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF IKE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION...AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...BUT THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.
HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS...RESTRENGTHENING
COULD OCCUR BEFORE ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN CENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS
UNTIL IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AWAY FROM
CUBA. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND 48 HR.

IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NOW 275/12. TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TAKING THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA
TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW. ONCE
IN THE GULF...IKE COULD SLOW DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SWING BY AND BE
REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. SUCH
A PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IKE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER RIDGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH
5...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD. SINCE
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/2100Z 21.4N 79.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 21.8N 81.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 22.6N 83.2W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 24.4N 86.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 25.5N 89.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 92.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0N 96.0W 95 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE MOVING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...

AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA....SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 21.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
WATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE
IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.7 N...80.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC TUE SEP 09 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 80.8W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 80.8W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 80.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.4N 82.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 87.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.0N 91.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 120SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 27.0N 94.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 80.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...BANDS OF HEAVY
SQUALLS NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IKE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES
...40 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PLAYA GIRON ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WEST-
CENTRAL CUBA AND ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA
CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS WESTERN CUBA DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY
EVENING OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS
OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHEN
IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.8 N...80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PENETRATION OF IKE'S EYE
INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A CLOSED WALL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
COLD TOPS DEVELOPING VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE NO
RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE. SURFACE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 74 KT WERE REPORTED FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE
AIRCRAFT...BUT THOSE DATA WERE QUESTIONABLE. SINCE THE INNER CORE
APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING...SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AS LONG
AS THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. AFTER
IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WITH BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION. THE
OFFICIAL 3- TO 4 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...BUT
WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION AT THESE TIME RANGES.

AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALMOST MOVING ASHORE ON
THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/11 AND IKE IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO...AND
JUST OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION OF IKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
3-5 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SOMEWHAT. THE GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALONG WITH THE NOGAPS...SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 96-120 HOURS.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL INDICATE THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO
INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. I AM
FAVORING THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WOULD SEEM
THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH ARE REGIONAL MODELS...WOULD NOT
HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS
A GLOBAL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BE
OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 21.8N 80.8W 70 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 22.4N 82.3W 80 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 23.2N 84.0W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 24.0N 85.7W 90 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 24.8N 87.2W 95 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 91.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 13/0000Z 27.0N 94.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 14/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W 95 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG