ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

not too surprised to see this....it's main provider of convection is gone as well as increasingly less favorable ULL winds. However the good news is it this would keep the storm W to WNW into the very warm waters of the caribbean.

However...the area won't persist if the convection collapses twice and we don't see some refiring occuring tonight. I'm sure unless that happens they will deactivate 93L.


Given the area though and the time of year...i'm inclined to still give this one a shot.

I'm not sure I understand what the "good news" is about 93L moving into warmer waters and possibly developing. I guess you missed what has happened in Texas and LA. the last few weeks.

Or perhaps YOU missed I hail from the area that experienced arguably the most devastating hurricane in American history. Please don't troll Stormcenter...we're here to discuss Development...or at least I thought so.

After seeing a recent loop I agree the storm is without a doubt reorganizing convection...I agree with Matt on this one. ULL Winds are going to tear this storm down again. If 93L survives the night tonight i'd put development chances in my opinion from 33.3% to perhaps 50%.

The popping convective activity right now looks very healthy however...the ULL winds seem visible to me coming down from the NW...I believe for the next few hours they should help 93L generate a good amount of convection before probably knocking it off again... as I said before the Central/Western Caribbean however looks quite conducive for the storm...so assuming it survives to make it there I would guess development chances look pretty solid.


HPC's surface forecast at Day 7 will however allow the storm to make entry into the GOM with the front a bit too far away to swing the storm East. To give Stormcenter credit in that sense i'd argue like seeing this thing dissipate...

[dixiebreeze]

I wonder if an tropical disturbance statement will be released later today or tonight, given all the destruction for Haiti and Cuba recently:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:31 AM EDT on September 19, 2008
Our lull in Atlantic hurricane activity continues, and there are no signs anything will develop over the next two days. Heavy thunderstorm activity has diminished over the Lesser Antilles Islands today, and any development of this system (93L) will be slow to occur. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15-20 knots, and is forecast to remain 15-20 knots for the next five days. The NHC is giving 93L a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. None of the computer models develop 93L. Still, we need to keep a careful eye on this system.

The more likely place for development of the next tropical storm is off the coast of Africa. A strong tropical wave with some solid heavy thunderstorm activity is emerging from the coast today, and the GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting this system will develop into a tropical depression by early next week. Wind shear is predicted to be in the moderate range, 10-20 knots. Many of the models are also predicting development of a strong storm off the coast of North Carolina about seven days from now, but this will probably be extratropical--the season's first Nor'easter.

Link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809

[HURAKAN]

dixiebreeze, I don't see the need for a tropical disturbance statement. There is nothing developing in any hurry. It's something to watch, and nothing else.

[cycloneye]

A little more convection,but nothing that appears to be organizing at this time.

[Gustywind]

A little more convection,but nothing that appears to be organizing at this time.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Absolutely Cycloneye, little more is perfect...and thus, we have had just passing showers the last hour, but all seems ok. Note that the weather is very cloudy with light winds, a bit grey but too nothing to kil a cat or a dog , rouf rouf!!
Es el perro ? So, Pero ( ) what the weather like en la isla del encanto Cycloneye dixit EP? ( EP:Eddie Palmieri " Puerto Rico" .

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:31 AM EDT on September 19, 2008
Our lull in Atlantic hurricane activity continues, and there are no signs anything will develop over the next two days. Heavy thunderstorm activity has diminished over the Lesser Antilles Islands today, and any development of this system (93L) will be slow to occur. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15-20 knots, and is forecast to remain 15-20 knots for the next five days. The NHC is giving 93L a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. None of the computer models develop 93L. Still, we need to keep a careful eye on this system.

The more likely place for development of the next tropical storm is off the coast of Africa. A strong tropical wave with some solid heavy thunderstorm activity is emerging from the coast today, and the GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting this system will develop into a tropical depression by early next week. Wind shear is predicted to be in the moderate range, 10-20 knots. Many of the models are also predicting development of a strong storm off the coast of North Carolina about seven days from now, but this will probably be extratropical--the season's first Nor'easter.

Link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products



The deep low being shown forming off the Carolinas is part of a large trough that
will impact the Gulf of Mexico in 5 days, about the time when 93L reaches
the NW Caribbean. It is Possible that this trough may *Protect* Texas
and Louisiana given how strong it is progged to be, and thus in the
6-7 day outlook curve 93L northeastward towards Florida. I am seeing
a track possibly into Florida's Panhandle or West Coast in the long range.

Given how deep that trough will be, 93L is likely to make a hard Northeast
turn once in the NW Caribbean.

This would bring heavy rains to Florida in 5-7 days.


The deep trough iover the Gulf in 5 days and indicated by the low
off the east coast by day 7 SHOULD protect Texas, Louisiana, but
may mean impacts for Florida. Looks like a recurve into Western Florida
possibly.

Could be a track like Dennis, Charley, or Wilma.

[Blown Away]

Convection has really improved since early this morning. The estimated mostly exposed circulation center is well W of this deep convection, I wonder if we will see that circulation center move back towards the convection near 60W?

[cycloneye]

what the weather like en la isla del encanto Cycloneye dixit EP? ( EP:Eddie Palmieri " Puerto Rico"

The usual diurnal showers in the interior and western Puerto Rico,nothing out of the ordinary.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...
AND ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Blown Away]

Estimated position.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...
AND ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Hmmm,they are seeing something that many of us dont.They now have it at orange.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


Trough by day 5, Conditions more favorable in a day.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 93, 2008091918, , BEST, 0, 133N, 644W, 25, 1010, LO,

[jlauderdal]

[bvigal]

Hmmm,they are seeing something that many of us dont.They now have it at orange.

Luis, what that tells me is that National Hurricane Center believes that shear is going to reduce sometime in the next 48hrs, allowing a better chance for development.

[Gustywind]

what the weather like en la isla del encanto Cycloneye dixit EP? ( EP:Eddie Palmieri " Puerto Rico"

The usual diurnal showers in the interior and western Puerto Rico,nothing out of the ordinary.

Ok tkanks , so it's good news for you, and ...afterwads wait and see how 93L could eventually influence de weather in you area like me too, .

[wxman57]

Looks quite unimpressive to me. Just a weak surface eddy void of convection. Something to keep an eye on, but it is nowhere near developing into anything significant. Hopefully, it'll dissipate. Being still without power after Ike, I, too, don't find it "good news" if it would track westward over warm water.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks quite unimpressive to me. Just a weak surface eddy void of convection. Something to keep an eye on, but it is nowhere near developing into anything significant. Hopefully, it'll dissipate. Being still without power after Ike, I, too, don't find it "good news" if it would track westward over warm water.

But I think the trough should protect Texas and steer it towards Florida, because
that is a really deep trough...what do you think on the path?

[wxman57]

Looks quite unimpressive to me. Just a weak surface eddy void of convection. Something to keep an eye on, but it is nowhere near developing into anything significant. Hopefully, it'll dissipate. Being still without power after Ike, I, too, don't find it "good news" if it would track westward over warm water.

But I think the trough should protect Texas and steer it towards Florida, because
that is a really deep trough...what do you think on the path?

That's what I'm thinking. Any development would most likely affect Haiti and the DR then either turn out to sea or possibly threaten the East U.S. Coast.