SPO : EX TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAH

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Vertigo]

Is anyone else a bit confused about 11F?

The media in NZ is reporting it as a Cyclone - all I can see is a TD...

hi, long time lurker, first time poster..
the NZ media wouldnt know what a tornado is, let alone a cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION [TD11F] [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.5S 161.2W AT
240600UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST OF
THE SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. THE INFLOW BAND IS STRUGGLING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES ALONG AND SURFACE TROUGH WITH AND UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS PICKED UP THE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
161.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 161.1W, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST
OF PAGO-PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION THAT HAS
MAINTAINED LOOSE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION [TD11F] [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.3S 164.1W AT
242100 UTC AND MOVING SOUTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK. ORGANISATION POOR.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. LLCC
EXPOSED. SYSTEM LIES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THIS SYSTEM LIES
IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BUT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO AREA
OF INCREASING SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE MOVING 11F TOWARDS THE SOUTH BRIEFLY THEN SOUTHEAST
EVENTUALLY INTO COOLER SST WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

A lot more convection

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7S
161.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 164.1W, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO-PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 250421Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED,
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST OF THE CENTER. PREVIOUS VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS 850 MB VORTICITY PRODUCT INDICATED AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE,
INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, STRONG DIFFLUENCE, AND WEAK
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 25/0845 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION [TD11F] [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16S 164.5W AT
250600 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. CONVECTION PERSISTS
ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK. ORGANISATION POOR. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM LIES IN A
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BUT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO AREA OF
INCREASING SHEAR.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOWLY MOVING 11F TOWARDS SOUTHWEST INTO COOLER SST
WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS21 PGTW 251400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S 163.8W TO 19.6S 166.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 251330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.2S 164.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9S
164.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 164.6W, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 250540Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 250845Z PARTIAL
ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 25-30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPROVED
BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT
WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM AND WEAK (DECREASING
TREND) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH EXPANDING
OUTFLOW WEST OF THE CENTER WITH CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT AND CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 261400Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

25/1422 UTC 15.6S 163.2W T2.0/2.0 17P -- Southeast Pacific

30 knots

[HurricaneBill]

The next name on the list is "Sarah".

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 25/2318 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE [1000HPA] LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 163.6W AT
252100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION AND AMSU PASS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS.


LLCC LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CONVECTION. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. UPPER OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL
QUADRANTS. CONVECTIVE TOPS COOLING. MODERATE ENVIRONMENT SHEAR OVER
SYSTEM BUT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. SST
AROUND 27C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT2.5.
PT=2.0 MET=2.0. DT UNCLEAR. FT BASED ON PT THUS, T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
BEYOND 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING IT INTO COOLER SST AND INCREASING SHEAR.

POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS IS HIGH.

THIS IS A RESUMPTION TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F. THE
NEXT TROPICAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 260230 UTC.

[cycloneye]

This was almost a dead duck but now it has ramped up again.This is an example that we cant proclaim a system dead until its really gone.

[HURAKAN]

Track

[HURAKAN]

Circulation just under the convection indicating shear is still present

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 26/0230 UTC 2010 UTC.

**CORRECTION TO ADVISORY NUMBER**

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE [1000HPA] LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 163.6W AT
260000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS.

LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS. UPPER
OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.
CONVECTIVE TOPS COOLING. MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM BUT ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. SST AROUND 27C. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDING DT2.5. PT=2.0 MET=2.0. DT
UNCLEAR. FT BASED ON PT THUS, T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEYOND 48 HOURS
WHILE MOVING IT INTO COOLER SST AND INCREASING SHEAR.

POTENTIAL FOR 11F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 260830
UTC.