SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F/19P)

[KWT]

Yeah 45kts seems fine to me as well. Its got one of those large convective tails that you sometimes see in Atlantic system as well, I've noticed though that these have tended to occur with what eventually were powerful systems, so maybe something to watch out for?

[HURAKAN]

12/1430 UTC 11.0S 177.9W T3.0/3.0 TOMAS -- Southeast Pacific

45 knots

[Sheronz]

[KWT]

If that were to be right that would be quite a big hit for Northern Fiji, hopefully the system doesnt quite get its act together in time.

Still if it does strengthen like that it could be quite a active period when it comes to landfalling systems by next week.

[senorpepr]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2010 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 11:40:32 S Lon : 177:18:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 984.0mb/ 55.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Yep steadily strengthening but from that image Hurakan it doesn't have a presentation that suggests anything other then steady strengthening at best, the western flank seems a little on the bare side compared with the eastern side. Still slow but steady strengthening seems probable given conditions aloft are pretty good....and importantly it still has time on its side to strengthen, unforntunalty for the Fiji Islands.

[Sheronz]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 12/2031 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 985 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 178.0W AT
121800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. DEPRESSION MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
WINDS INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NEXT 18
TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF
THE CENTRE.

ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. PRIMARY BANDS CONSOLIDATING
AND WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES OVER A WEAKLY
SHEARED AND DIFFLUENT ENVIROMENT. SST 30C. SYSTEM STEERED
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.5. MET AND PT AGREE,
THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWEST TRACK AND
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 12.0S 178.8W MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 13.0S 179.6W MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 14.0S 179.9E MOV SSW AT 06 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 15.0S 179.6E MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AT
130230 UTC OR EARLIER.

[Sheronz]

[HurricaneBill]

The last storm to hit Fiji as a Category 3 was Gavin in 1997.



The last Category 4 storm was Sina in 1990.

[HURAKAN]

Eye clearing out

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/0237 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 980 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 178.4W AT
130000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
WINDS INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE WITHIN 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

ORGANISATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. NEW CONVECTIVE BANDS EXPECTED
TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES OVER A WEAKLY SHEARED AND
DIFFLUENT ENVIROMENT. SST 30C. SYSTEM STEERED WEST-SOUTHWEST BY
NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON THE PT OF
3.5, DT UNCLEAR, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
SOUTHWEST TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 12.3S 179.4W MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 13.2S 179.8E MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 14.0S 179.4E MOV SSW AT 04 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 14.7S 179.3E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 95
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AT
130830 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 11.7S 178.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 178.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 12.9S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 13.9S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.2S 179.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 16.6S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.3S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 21.4S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.6S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 178.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 19P IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE THAT IS ENHANCING EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE ANIMATION WITH A HIGH
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON
DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND PHFO. TC TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. AFTER TAU 48, TOMAS SHOULD ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
AS A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE AND
ENABLES A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. AT THE SAME TIME, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO
REACH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDES
INCREASES. BEYOND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS OHC VALUES DECREASE AND WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE NOGAPS, GFDN AND UKMO
MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST BEFORE THE
SYSTEM RE-CURVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[Sheronz]

more and more impressive..

[P.K.]

55kts.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/0839 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 980 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 178.7W AT
130600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.
WINDS INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE WITHIN 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. PRIMARY BANDS CONTINUING TO WRAP
TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES OVER A WEAKLY SHEARED AND
DIFFLUENT ENVIROMENT. SST 30C. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTHWEST BY NORTHEAST
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 3.5, MET=4.0, PT=3.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON SOUTHWEST TRACK AND
INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 12.6S 179.4W MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 13.2S 179.9W MOV SW AT 06 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 14.0S 179.7E MOV SSW AT 04 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 14.8S 179.5E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 90
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AT
131430 UTC OR EARLIER.

[Macrocane]

They're beautiful storms, very impressive

[KWT]

That sure is an amazing image there Sheronz!

Seems like the JWTC are expecting this to strengthen to peak strength just as it passes the Fiji islands. The track has remained very constant so we could well be looking at a big hit for them.

Mind you this system still isn't striking me as one that is that impressive, the structure doesn't look quite right to me for a system to reach the sort of strength expected. Still that could change quickly enough!

ps, saying that it has got a decent enough look to it, just need to get a better inner core really, seems to be lacking somewhat.

[senorpepr]

WHPS01 NFFN 131200
HURRICANE WARNING 018 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 13/1308 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3 SOUTH
179.1 WEST AT 131200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 12.3S 179.1W AT 131200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.0S 179.8W AT 140000 UTC
AND NEAR 13.7S 179.8E AT 141200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 016.

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

Latest