EPAC / Caribbean development later this week?

[Evil Jeremy]

While I know its bad to wish for a storm to come in one's direction.... I could use without final exams the week after next lol. Just joking, but this will be an interesting system to watch.

[boca]

Is this system that the models latching onto the shortwave thats presently moving across Cuba and the Florida Straits or future development down in the SW Caribbean? I think this shortwave is the system that the models are developing off the SE coast.

[Frank2]

The GFS shows a weak low tracking across eastern Cuba and into the Atlantic over the next few days - upper level winds are still too strong for anything else...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

Is this system that the models latching onto the shortwave thats presently moving across Cuba and the Florida Straits or future development down in the SW Caribbean? I think this shortwave is the system that the models are developing off the SE coast.

A tropical wave is supposed to generate this area of low pressure in the south Caribbean

[boca]

Is this system that the models latching onto the shortwave thats presently moving across Cuba and the Florida Straits or future development down in the SW Caribbean? I think this shortwave is the system that the models are developing off the SE coast.

A tropical wave is supposed to generate this area of low pressure in the south Caribbean

Do you have the link that shows the tropical wave Hurakan?

[HURAKAN]

The GFS shows a weak low tracking across eastern Cuba and into the Atlantic over the next few days - upper level winds are still too strong for anything else...

Frank

I don't like to put too much emphasis on the track and intensity of ghost storms. Remember that computer models don't handle very well ghost systems.

At the moment what I feel is more important is the consensus between the computer models. When they agree in fantasy land, something may happen.

[HURAKAN]

Is this system that the models latching onto the shortwave thats presently moving across Cuba and the Florida Straits or future development down in the SW Caribbean? I think this shortwave is the system that the models are developing off the SE coast.

A tropical wave is supposed to generate this area of low pressure in the south Caribbean

Do you have the link that shows the tropical wave Hurakan?

The other system that the models are developing is a tropical depression or storm in the Southwest Caribbean. Genesis originates during the passage of a tropical wave over Venezuela that you guys know I have been tracking since last weekend. The wave initiates a broad low pressure just north of Panama in about 3-4 days. Initially the system is slow to move because it is locked in weak steering flow due to the genesis of the hybrid low to its north. Through days 5-6 the storm slowly drifts north as the trough associated with the hybrid system to the north continues to dig deeper. Through day 7, the trough should have sufficient influence on the system to pull it gradually towards the northeast. Now the ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFS and CMC all show this solution. The environment in the Southwest Caribbean will be conducive as shear forecasts are becoming a bit clearer. The MJO pulse is expected around this time, pressures are below normal over the area and sea surface temperatures are around 28C. However, the models are also in consensus that the system will struggle later in the cycle as it moves north into a higher shear environment.

Link - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Weather456/show.html

[Frank2]

I don't put stock in ghost systems, either (those are the "systems" that drive everyone crazy), but the climatology does favor a weak system tracking northeastward, and that's what the GFS might be picking up on more than anything - certainly there is enough weather down there at the moment...

Frank

[KWT]

The GFS shows a weak low tracking across eastern Cuba and into the Atlantic over the next few days - upper level winds are still too strong for anything else...

Frank

I can see a window where development of this would certainly be possible, probably only 48-72hrs wide mind you before upper conditions start to go downhill again, but then again its only Mid-Late May so even though you can get storms develop in this region, they still aren't common at this time of year.

[Evil Jeremy]

The chances of anything coming out of this are pretty low, but when you have multiple models showing the same thing at the same time, and within a reasonable time period for models, it needs watching. If anything, I look forward to tracking a possible invest near the end of the weekend.

[Aquawind]

If this first real hint actually pops it will just show how wild this season is going to be.. So often we get teased for a month or 2 of model hints before they actually become reality.

[arkestra]

Last year we also had a pop at this time.

[tolakram]

I'm still suspecting EPAC development, but I don't think we've ever had this many models on board before. It could be one of those 'broad area of low pressure' blobs that are common this time of year.

[fci]

fci checking in here. Tis the season to start paying attention. Given the weirdness of this past winter who knows what this hurricane season will present us. At this point nothing would surprise me! I just don't want to see anything for a while with the oil soup out there in The Gulf. I cringe at what the combination of a system , the loop current and that ton of goo out there would do.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

Develops Caribbean system and moves slowly.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps strongest run so far



Canadian


GFS

[KWT]

I'm still suspecting EPAC development, but I don't think we've ever had this many models on board before. It could be one of those 'broad area of low pressure' blobs that are common this time of year.

Looks to me like the energy will focus on the Atlantic side rather then the EPAC side, the synoptics would suggest any development down there will end up going NNE/NE anyway so even if something did try and compete on the other side it'd all get dragged into the Caribbean in the end,

[HURAKAN]

GFS

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF

The 12z EURO has a TD in the Caribbean at 144 hours.

[KWT]

Yep the ECM takes this system NE towards Haiti which obviously wouldn't be a good thing even if it was just a weak depression/storm type system...

Could we really have two possible systems next week...in May!!