
WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180321Z JUL 10//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 121.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 121.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.3N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 17.6N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.1N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 20.7N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 23.5N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 26.0N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 120.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 180513Z AMSR-E 89H IMAGE INDICATED A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL LOCATED
JUST EAST OF OKINAWA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE AMSR-E AND 172238Z TRMM
IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 180148Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATING NUMEROUS 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AS WELL AS DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 04W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12. MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS ARE LIMITED TO
WBAR AND GFS, HOWEVER, UKMO, NOGAPS AND JGSM MODEL FIELDS SUPPORT
THE CURRENT TRACK. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 24 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 180321Z JUL 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 180330). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
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