Wave PGI27L in Western Caribbean

[Sanibel]

Something is going on in the Caribbean this year where waves are losing their convection (Like all of it).

[Tropics Guy]

Poof again............lets see if it will refire in the morning.

TG

[srainhoutx]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Cyclone1]

Just as planned.

[Sanibel]

The Caribbean is persisting in hostile conditions.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[KWT]

Hmmm I can understand upping it to 20%, this one may need to be watched if the shear eases off to the north a little, whilst its still early days this one could well be invested tomorrow if some decent convection can fire, given its location it obviously bears watching!

[hurricaneCW]

Another waste of a disturbance. Will hit land before it even has a chance to do anything.

[KWT]

Has a shot though in the BoC HCW, probably would only be a short lived brief system but a TD/TS is just about possibl I'd imagine, but we will see, we've seen alot of systems do this so far this season, eventually one will stick and develop further east in the Caribbean.

[rockyman]

Steering:

[Dean4Storms]

I can make out some slight rotation out near 82W 17N moving west this evening. Needs to be watched!

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm I can understand upping it to 20%, this one may need to be watched if the shear eases off to the north a little, whilst its still early days this one could well be invested tomorrow if some decent convection can fire, given its location it obviously bears watching!

KWT, are you getting a big Deja Vu here with the wave and location and where it's expected to go? Wow, talk about a Carbon Copy.....

[perk]

Hmmm I can understand upping it to 20%, this one may need to be watched if the shear eases off to the north a little, whilst its still early days this one could well be invested tomorrow if some decent convection can fire, given its location it obviously bears watching!

KWT, are you getting a big Deja Vu here with the wave and location and where it's expected to go? Wow, talk about a Carbon Copy.....

Correct if i'm wrong, but looking at some of the global models this wave because of where the high sets up will be allowed to gain some latitude.

[KWT]

KWT, are you getting a big Deja Vu here with the wave and location and where it's expected to go? Wow, talk about a Carbon Copy.....

Oh we've had quite a few of these types of systems that have strengthened into the W.Caribbean and then tried to do the same on the BoC, TD2 and Alex made it so to speak but the others all ran out of time...but itsa why I'm still confident of a biggun late in the season from down in the Caribbean because the set-up will prevent the systems from running out of land.

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[Sanibel]

Another Caribbean wave that dries up as it goes west. Don't ask me what it is but there's some kind of subsidence/dry air type negativity basin wide. However since the MJO has nudged over into the basin with a slightly positive phase that could change. Right now it looks like it won't though. The first sign of a change in favorability will be deeper convection.

[HURAKAN]

not much to see here

[tropicana]

Stll, nearly an inch of rain ( 22mm) has fallen on Grand Cayman Island (at the Airport) in just 6 hours ending at 8am this morning....and 24mm at George Town. So the wave still has ample moisture.

[ronjon]

Our wave is flaring up today.