WPAC: NOCK-TEN (Juaning) - Tropical Depression

[dhoeze]

Based on the latest image, is it more favoring the track that will pass through Centrol Luzon? More south of the JTWC track posted ealier?

[phwxenthusiast]

Based on the latest image, is it more favoring the track that will pass through Centrol Luzon? More south of the JTWC track posted ealier?

i do think it'll make landfall, although i kinda understand JTWC's forecast, the models diverge a bit in terms of CPA to Luzon... we should know more in 24 hours or so... whatever happens, rain will definitely affect Eastern Luzon--Bicol is already being affected..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the PAGASA, JMA, and JTWC products.

[Typhoon10]

JTWC has this as strongest when just north of Philippines then loses strength as it moves into the SCS near Hong Kong. Any reason why it would lose strength? Are conditions not favourable for it to strengthen?

[supercane]

WTPQ20 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 12.8N 128.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 15.0N 126.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

TPPN10 PGTW 250009
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (E OF PHILIPPINES)
B. 24/2332Z
C. 13.0N
D. 128.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDED
A 1.0 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
QUAST

[Typhoon Hunter]

JTWC has this as strongest when just north of Philippines then loses strength as it moves into the SCS near Hong Kong. Any reason why it would lose strength? Are conditions not favourable for it to strengthen?

Their forecast goes against what Euro's been showing for last 2 runs. And JTWC have a history of being totally hopeless when issuing initial intensity forecasts on storms entering SCS so I'm remaining skeptical at the moment. To name just a few in last couple of years:

Molave 2009 - forecasted 25kts at CPA to Hong Kong, reality turn out to be typhoon strength.
Koppu 2009 - forecasted landfall between 40-30kts, reality was rapidly intensifying typhoon at landfall.
Conson 2010 - dissipating 20kts TD in SCS NE of HK, reality was strengthening typhoon into Sanya, Hainan

Given the improving environment I'm expecting this to be a good deal stronger than 25kts just after landfall - and I'll be happy to come out with my hands up if I'm proven wrong!

[RobWESTPACWX]

I think we will see the consensus on the fcst track to move south, just my thoughts but I believe the ridge to the N should hold it down more than what JTWC is saying for example. Just my thoughts though.

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 12.7N 127.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 127.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.5N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.8N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.1N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.4N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.3N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.0N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 127.3E.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W//
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INTENSIFYING AND
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALED SIGNIFICANT COOLING IN THE CLOUD
TOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS THE CONVECTION DEEPENED. A
242112Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS PASSES SHOWS
GREATER COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT THE 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL BANDING IS SLOW TO ORGANIZE. THE 241200Z PGTW
UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC EXISTS IN A
MODERATELY DIFFLUENT REGION POLEWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10-15 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND THE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEAL SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR NORTH OF 15 DEGREES LATITUDE. THE NORTHEASTERLIES ARE SPINNING
OUT OF THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE PLANTED OVER EASTERN CHINA, WHICH
HAS SURGED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST WEEK. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
WELL ESTABLISHED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 30 DEGREES.
SURFACE REPORTS ALONG THE COAST OF SAMAR AND SOUTHERN LUZON ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT OFF-SHORE FLOW AND PRESSURES
CORRESPONDING WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER OPEN WATERS. A 241317Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 20
KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUADRANT. TD 10W IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, MOVING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXISTS AS A COL BETWEEN THE
ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE OCEANIC ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS
CENTERED NEAR 35N 160E. DUE TO THE SLOW ORGANIZATION THUS FAR, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON MSI AND
SURFACE REPORTS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
IS BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
KNES, AS WELL AS THE EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE AND EXTRAPOLATIONS FROM
PRESSURE REPORTS BY COASTAL STATIONS ALONG SAMAR AND LUZON.
A. THERE IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. IT
ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA. POLAR OUTFLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED, KEEPING SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AT A
SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE CURRENT FORECAST STAYS ABOVE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, BASED ON THE HISTORICALLY FERTILE
GROUNDS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND THE PRESENCE OF WELL-ESTABLISHED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. BEGINNING NEAR TAU 48, THE OCEANIC ANTICYCLONE
WILL BEGIN TO HAVE A STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM AND DRIVE IT
ON A MORE WESTWARD COURSE TOWARDS THE LUZON STRAIT. DURING THIS
PROCESS, THE 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NORTHEAST OF LUZON WILL
EASE TO BELOW 20 KNOTS AND ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED BUT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE SO
FAR IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC
FORECAST USES CONSTANT BEARING AND SPEED FROM THE CURRENT BEST TRACK
POSITION FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS, WHICH COMES OUT BEING CLOSE TO THE
NOGAPS TRACKER AND THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC MODEL. OTHER AIDS ARE
TRACKING THE SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL LUZON AND OUT THE LINGAYEN GULF,
AND CONSENSUS IS BEING PULLED EQUATORWARD BY THOSE MODELS. THE FLOW
IN THE MID TO LOW TROPOSPHERE APPEARS TOO WEAK TO DRIVE A SYSTEM ON
A STRAIGHT WESTWARD COURSE. HENCE, THE TRACK INDICATED BY ECMWF
AND NOGAPS APPEARS MORE VIABLE.
C. ONCE TD 10W IS IN THE LUZON STRAIT, THE STEERING MECHANISM
WILL SHIFT FROM THE OCEANIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE EASTERN CHINA
ANTICYCLONE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGES IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
DUE TO A LACK OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS A WIDE DISPARITY IN WHAT
GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE. AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND MODELS STABILIZE,
CERTAINTY IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE FORECASTS WILL INCREASE.
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

I think we will see the consensus on the fcst track to move south, just my thoughts but I believe the ridge to the N should hold it down more than what JTWC is saying for example. Just my thoughts though.

Let's see what the 00z models come up with. I'm inclined to agree with you especially if ECMWF track further to the south.

[dexterlabio]

Euro 24 July 12z


Slight change from the run prior to this.

[oaba09]

PAGASA forecast(now called tropical depression "JUANING")



The Low Pressure Area East of Visayas has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "JUANING".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 350 kms East Southeast of Virac, Catanduanes

Coordinates: 13.2°N, 127.8°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 55 kph near the center

Movement: Northwest at 15 kph.

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday morning:
180 km North Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or
320 km East Southeast of Casiguran, Aurora
Wednesday morning:
90 km North of Casiguran, Aurora or
140 km Southeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Thursday morning:
200 km Northwest of Aparri, Cagayan

[Typhoon Hunter]

Euro 24 July 12z

Slight change from the run prior to this.

Intensity is still pretty impressive though. JMA Have upgraded to warned TD, expecting upgrade to TS within 24 hours.

Does anyone have link to ocean heat content charts for Wpac? Thanks!

[cycloneye]

Euro 24 July 12z

Slight change from the run prior to this.

Intensity is still pretty impressive though. JMA Have upgraded to warned TD, expecting upgrade to TS within 24 hours.

Does anyone have link to ocean heat content charts for Wpac? Thanks!

Link to West Pacific Heat Content.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/np.html

[cycloneye]

StormingB81, the title of thread was edited as JMA has begun to issue warnings.

[StormingB81]

StormingB81, the title of thread was edited as JMA has begun to issue warnings.

Thank you sorry I had to step away for a bit

[Typhoon Hunter]

Link to West Pacific Heat Content.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/np.html

Thank you very much!!

HKO issuing forecast track now - http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

[oaba09]

Link to West Pacific Heat Content.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/np.html

Thank you very much!!

HKO issuing forecast track now - http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm

Wow, HKO is forecasting an approach through central luzon...I guess they're thinking that the ridge will be strong enough....

[phwxenthusiast]

latest GFS and NOGAPS are still worlds apart... the former brings 10W towards Luzon (Aurora) while the latter tracks 10W towards Luzon Strait...

[dexterlabio]

Does anyone has an idea where its center is located right now?

I actually think this could make landfall along the eastern portion of Luzon then exit through Ilocos down to Pangasinan province. Well this system I think won't get much above typhoon strength or probably will stay at or just below STS status, so it could well be steered by the ridge more westward.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the PAGASA, JMA, and JTWC products.

[dexterlabio]

I was thinking how bad the weather could be if this system being at TS strength will pass across Central Luzon, just north of Manila. I consider this as the most alarming scenario, not because of the possible wind damage it may cause but the rains it can produce. There are few storms getting near to the waters east of Central Luzon, and incidentally as I see it, they all tend to induce too much convection thus bringing heavy rains particularly to the southern portions (including Manila).

[phwxenthusiast]

jeez, what a tough forecast to make for 10W... models are all over the place in terms of landfall...