ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[GCANE]

I see why they tagged this as an invest. TRMM showed a good hot tower about 10 hrs ago.

[AJC3]

While the circulation is vigorous, it seems like it will probably have trouble spinning up over the next few to several days given the stable SAL to the north and ahead of it. As already mentioned by others, this would portend a greater threat to the islands should it maintain its structure and start to "percolate" convectively a little better later this week.

[KWT]

Looks like a circulation of sorts has lifted out of the ITCZ but is sturggling against the dry air for now...

System should take a track IMO rather close to Earl from last year providing of course that it develops, which is by no means a certainty just yet.

Convectioni will wax and wane quite alot before any development will occur, I suspect as Wxman57 development probably abit away yet.

[KWT]

Modelsm are hinting at a pattern change, may take a little bit too long to make this one a threat, it'll be the systems after this IMO that will be an issue.

Still obviously well worth watching, may well be like Emily track wise, maybe a bit to the right given the starting point.

[NDG]

What are we talking? 12-15 days from the US?

If it makes it close to US, is more like in the 10-12 day range.

[KWT]

While the circulation is vigorous, it seems like it will probably have trouble spinning up over the next few to several days given the stable SAL to the north and ahead of it. As already mentioned by others, this would portend a greater threat to the islands should it maintain its structure and start to "percolate" convectively a little better later this week.

Yep a slow brewer in all likelyhood, as others have said 50-60W is probably the zone where it is most likely going to develop...

Not going to be long though before these waves this far east develop, some of the waves are reminding me alot of 2010 in how they came off and looked good even before 20W.

[Vortex]

The east Atlantic may be a bit too hostile for development, still. Bermuda high shifted east but rather strong would mean strong low-level easterly flow east of 50W for a while. That's the reason for all the dry air north of 92L. This is a problem because the best convergence will come as it nears the Caribbean in 5-6 days. Farther west development means more of a threat to Caribbean and possibly the U.S. Ridge would probably hold firm over TX/LA for the next few weeks, so look for either a track south to NE MX or south TX (as per Arlene/Don) or similar to Emily.

Btw 57, Excellent job with emily...

[GCANE]

GFS has it a borderline warm core at 60W and yesterday's pouch analysis showed mostly favorable shear for its trek across the pond.

[OuterBanker]

Yesterdays 12z GFS was a little frightning, it had a cat 3 hiting the NC coast. But by 18z it was a fish with a cat 1 (93l I presume) hitting Houston. Point is that the models are starting to see things. This far out they are always a fantasy. I do think things will develop later which will bring more threat to the US. Plus, the Bermuda high is sceduled to retrograde in couple weeks with a trough split at the same time. I do think that 92l will be to early and become a fish tale.

[pgoss11]

The east Atlantic may be a bit too hostile for development, still. Bermuda high shifted east but rather strong would mean strong low-level easterly flow east of 50W for a while. That's the reason for all the dry air north of 92L. This is a problem because the best convergence will come as it nears the Caribbean in 5-6 days. Farther west development means more of a threat to Caribbean and possibly the U.S. Ridge would probably hold firm over TX/LA for the next few weeks, so look for either a track south to NE MX or south TX (as per Arlene/Don) or similar to Emily.

Btw 57, Excellent job with emily...

Yes good job 57 and Gawx too. Both did an awesome job with Emily!!

[KWT]

I think there is no question it'll be warm cored that far south GCANE. the shear as you say looks ok BUT I'm betting just like Emily the low level flow isn't going to be that favourable for a little while yet and the dry air is probably an issue.

Won't be for much longer though...

[HurricaneWarning92]

Modelsm are hinting at a pattern change, may take a little bit too long to make this one a threat, it'll be the systems after this IMO that will be an issue.

Still obviously well worth watching, may well be like Emily track wise, maybe a bit to the right given the starting point.

Maybe this is why they are predicting more U.S. landfalls this year and are basing it on this "pattern change".

[KWT]

07z takes it to the Bahamas BUT builds in a proper ridge around the same time so wouldn't be a clear curt set-up if that happened...

[mutley]

If anyone has a link handy for those maps showing winds at different pressures in the atmosphere, could you please post it for me

[RL3AO]

If anyone has a link handy for those maps showing winds at different pressures in the atmosphere, could you please post it for me

These?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

[floridasun78]

model change 30 time by time get leedwards or even more

[mutley]

If anyone has a link handy for those maps showing winds at different pressures in the atmosphere, could you please post it for me

These?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

Yes, those are the ones. Thank you very much. You are a gentlemanly weather geek.

[WeatherEmperor]

I keep hearing about a pattern change. What is the pattern right now and what will the pattern change to?

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has it at 168 hours well NE of the Leewards.

[KWT]

Much stronger Vort this run which leads to an early recurve, upper ridge doesn't even show itself either...