Zero US Major Hurricane Landfalls since October 24th 2005

[Cyclenall]

I'm quite shocked by how Irene suddenly weakened so much. It was unprecedented by how almost all models (including the reliable global ones) were forecasting at least a category 3 brushing NC and a lower end category 2 for the NE coast.

I wasn't shocked in the least bit, in fact I was expecting it. It was probably the least shocking thing that has occurred in the Atlantic thus far this year. Whenever a major hurricane takes aim at the east coast above South Carolina, I assume it won't hold its strength or intensify any. Only two off the top of my head have done it...Hugo and Hazel but those were near SC anyways. As Crazy said, it actually didn't weaken all that fast. I also wouldn't say it was unprecedented, it's happened before.

Just over 1 short week until we pass the peak of hurricane season and models show the good luck of the past 6 years will continue for the foreseeable future. Irene was likely the best chance since 2008 to break the streak but its lack of inner core due to eyewall replacement cycles prevented it from strengthening in otherwise ideal conditions.

No. Irene was definitely not our best chance, a North-East hurricane? The reason for Irene not being a major at landfall is very simple, it was a huge hurricane in wind radius, so large that any dry air near the region gets pulled right in like northern Gulf coast major hurricane landfalls. Enormous hurricanes like Ike, Igor, and Irene have a terrible time at strengthening when they start to reach record sizes (large hurricanes tend to strengthen slower but not always) so when ERCs start the dry air buggers everything up within it and the ERC in progress tends to never complete itself. These are the reasons I believe it did not strengthen in ideal conditions.

[maxintensity]

Just over 1 short week until we pass the peak of hurricane season and models show the good luck of the past 6 years will continue for the foreseeable future. Irene was likely the best chance since 2008 to break the streak but its lack of inner core due to eyewall replacement cycles prevented it from strengthening in otherwise ideal conditions.

No. Irene was definitely not our best chance, a North-East hurricane? The reason for Irene not being a major at landfall is very simple, it was a huge hurricane in wind radius, so large that any dry air near the region gets pulled right in like northern Gulf coast major hurricane landfalls. Enormous hurricanes like Ike, Igor, and Irene have a terrible time at strengthening when they start to reach record sizes (large hurricanes tend to strengthen slower but not always) so when ERCs start the dry air buggers everything up within it and the ERC in progress tends to never complete itself. These are the reasons I believe it did not strengthen in ideal conditions.

Then what had a better chance of smashing the US as a major since Ike in 2008? And dry air is not why irene was not a major hurricane. It is because it did not have an eyewall due to the continuous eyewall replacement which was induced immediately when it was a category 1 hurricane. I made a post about this in the recon discussion thread and provided the hdob from noaa that showed a double wind maximum when it was strengthening from just a tropical storm to a category 1 hurricane. The dry air was able to get entrained into the circulation a bit because it lacked an eyewall to defend itself. But this is directly due to the ewrc. The dry is not the reason the ewrc did not complete. It is because multiple double wind maximums were generated which led for the hurricane to continually try and create new eyewalls. I believe Ike and Irene are the new "hurricanes of the future" where they undergo continuous ewrc's and have winds much lower than would be expected given their pressure.

[somethingfunny]

Just over 1 short week until we pass the peak of hurricane season and models show the good luck of the past 6 years will continue for the foreseeable future. Irene was likely the best chance since 2008 to break the streak but its lack of inner core due to eyewall replacement cycles prevented it from strengthening in otherwise ideal conditions.

No. Irene was definitely not our best chance, a North-East hurricane? The reason for Irene not being a major at landfall is very simple, it was a huge hurricane in wind radius, so large that any dry air near the region gets pulled right in like northern Gulf coast major hurricane landfalls. Enormous hurricanes like Ike, Igor, and Irene have a terrible time at strengthening when they start to reach record sizes (large hurricanes tend to strengthen slower but not always) so when ERCs start the dry air buggers everything up within it and the ERC in progress tends to never complete itself. These are the reasons I believe it did not strengthen in ideal conditions.

Then what had a better chance of smashing the US as a major since Ike in 2008? And dry air is not why irene was not a major hurricane. It is because it did not have an eyewall due to the continuous eyewall replacement which was induced immediately when it was a category 1 hurricane. I made a post about this in the recon discussion thread and provided the hdob from noaa that showed a double wind maximum when it was strengthening from just a tropical storm to a category 1 hurricane. The dry air was able to get entrained into the circulation a bit because it lacked an eyewall to defend itself. But this is directly due to the ewrc. The dry is not the reason the ewrc did not complete. It is because multiple double wind maximums were generated which led for the hurricane to continually try and create new eyewalls. I believe Ike and Irene are the new "hurricanes of the future" where they undergo continuous ewrc's and have winds much lower than would be expected given their pressure.

Yeah people said similar things when we didn't have a major hurricane hit the US after Bret in 1999. Then Charley hit, and then Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. But sure, big messy spread-out hurricanes like Ike, Irene and Frances are "the future". Why not?

For whatever my opinion's worth, we've got a really good shot at taking a major hurricane to the US coastline this season. The Caribbean has been quiet but it always wakes up in October, and with all these deep La Nina troughs moving through....

[Cyclenall]

Just over 1 short week until we pass the peak of hurricane season and models show the good luck of the past 6 years will continue for the foreseeable future. Irene was likely the best chance since 2008 to break the streak but its lack of inner core due to eyewall replacement cycles prevented it from strengthening in otherwise ideal conditions.

No. Irene was definitely not our best chance, a North-East hurricane? The reason for Irene not being a major at landfall is very simple, it was a huge hurricane in wind radius, so large that any dry air near the region gets pulled right in like northern Gulf coast major hurricane landfalls. Enormous hurricanes like Ike, Igor, and Irene have a terrible time at strengthening when they start to reach record sizes (large hurricanes tend to strengthen slower but not always) so when ERCs start the dry air buggers everything up within it and the ERC in progress tends to never complete itself. These are the reasons I believe it did not strengthen in ideal conditions.

Then what had a better chance of smashing the US as a major since Ike in 2008? And dry air is not why irene was not a major hurricane. It is because it did not have an eyewall due to the continuous eyewall replacement which was induced immediately when it was a category 1 hurricane. I made a post about this in the recon discussion thread and provided the hdob from noaa that showed a double wind maximum when it was strengthening from just a tropical storm to a category 1 hurricane. The dry air was able to get entrained into the circulation a bit because it lacked an eyewall to defend itself. But this is directly due to the ewrc. The dry is not the reason the ewrc did not complete.It is because multiple double wind maximums were generated which led for the hurricane to continually try and create new eyewalls. I believe Ike and Irene are the new "hurricanes of the future" where they undergo continuous ewrc's and have winds much lower than would be expected given their pressure.

If you vetted out what was to become Hurricane Irene before the models trended away from Florida, it certainly did have the best chance to be a major hurricane hit to the US since Ike. I was mostly talking post-Irene with regards to its chances of being a major landfall. If at the beginning everything pointed to Irene making it's first US landfall on the Outer Banks then only a few would believe a major landfall was likely. It's half and half then.

Response to the bolded section, I said that it's huge size was the main problem and everything secondary to that was connection to it's size (dry air, slow to no strengthening directly due to its size, and ERC complications). It's cause and effect now so the disagreement is in order of events. I do think the dry air was partly responsible for Irene not completing her ERC. I agree about the unusual amount of eyes and eyewalls Irene had late in it's life (over 3 at once?), but what do you mean by "Hurricanes of the Future"? There is nothing new about this but it is rare or very rare.

Yeah people said similar things when we didn't have a major hurricane hit the US after Bret in 1999. Then Charley hit, and then Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. But sure, big messy spread-out hurricanes like Ike, Irene and Frances are "the future". Why not?

For whatever my opinion's worth, we've got a really good shot at taking a major hurricane to the US coastline this season. The Caribbean has been quiet but it always wakes up in October, and with all these deep La Nina troughs moving through....

I can sense the comedic tone in this one . I second the second paragraph about a major hit to the US coastline and just like earlier in this thread, if not this year then next and it ain't gonna be a picnic.

[Patrick99]

As I understand it, it's just difficult for a "major" to hit the Northeast. They are usually in the process of recurving and becoming extratropical when doing so.....

Of course, when you have mountains as in Central Vermont, it doesn't even take a major to do damage, just a bunch of rain.

[maxintensity]

Response to the bolded section, I said that it's huge size was the main problem and everything secondary to that was connection to it's size (dry air, slow to no strengthening directly due to its size, and ERC complications). It's cause and effect now so the disagreement is in order of events. I do think the dry air was partly responsible for Irene not completing her ERC. I agree about the unusual amount of eyes and eyewalls Irene had late in it's life (over 3 at once?), but what do you mean by "Hurricanes of the Future"? There is nothing new about this but it is rare or very rare.

Unfortunately it's not allowed to be discussed on the forum so we just have to leave it at that.

[Cyclenall]

Response to the bolded section, I said that it's huge size was the main problem and everything secondary to that was connection to it's size (dry air, slow to no strengthening directly due to its size, and ERC complications). It's cause and effect now so the disagreement is in order of events. I do think the dry air was partly responsible for Irene not completing her ERC. I agree about the unusual amount of eyes and eyewalls Irene had late in it's life (over 3 at once?), but what do you mean by "Hurricanes of the Future"? There is nothing new about this but it is rare or very rare.

Unfortunately it's not allowed to be discussed on the forum so we just have to leave it at that.

I think I know what you mean but I wasn't aware that it couldn't be discussed.