Gulf Homebrew? (Is invest 93L)

[tailgater]

One model

[img][/img]

Looks like it's headed for the border or a little north of there.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Seriously tailgater, the NAM Guess you got me on a technicality. Guees thats why I never saw it because I never look at it. But like you said north Mexico or deep south Texas.

[South Texas Storms]

You beat me to it tailgater! Let's see if other models start to show development in this area soon.

[BigB0882]

Until the ridge does retreat, anything is certainly heading West to deep south Texas or Mexico. I don't believe the ridge is going anywhere for another 2-3 weeks, just my opinion.

[tailgater]

GFS same time frame as NAM,


Looks like early Labor Day weekend coukd see some moisture at least, moving into desert region of southern Texas.

[Aric Dunn]

I have noticed the models wanting to develop something either in the NW carrib or southern gulf. Whats interesting is the area of convection in the carrib is partially some energy that was left behind by Irene that has been plaguing the greater Antilles since she pasted them and has been enhanced by the northerly outflow from irene. this should subside and seems a weak tropical wave has also moved into the western carrib. So it is something to watch for sure as convection remains strong at times which could eventually get something going at the surface which by then the shear could lessen allowing some development.

[sittingduck]

Is there anything happening right now on the northern coast of the Yucatan - I see some rotation in this area but I don't know if it is upper level etc. Thanks

[Aric Dunn]

Is there anything happening right now on the northern coast of the Yucatan - I see some rotation in this area but I don't know if it is upper level etc. Thanks

I see a weak mod level rotation at the moment. nothing at the surface. just a lot of SW flow with a little NE flow from the building ridge to the NW.

[Macrocane]

The FIM has been kind of consistent with a tropical cyclone in the GOM, in the last run it shows a cyclone making landfall in Texas in 156 hours:

[blazess556]

12z gfs is more aggressive with this feature.

[wxman22]

Yes it is... it develops the feature into a depression/weak tropical storm

[BigA]

The model which shall not be NAMed still forecasts a tropical storm forming, moving toward the northwest gulf coast in the 12Z run. And the 12Z GFS ins onboard, albeit at a later time frame, forming a rain-laden TS in the western Gulf.

Given that we are at peak season thereabouts, and the large amount of moisture available, I think the chances of a western Gulf TS is fairly high.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Until the ridge does retreat, anything is certainly heading West to deep south Texas or Mexico. I don't believe the ridge is going anywhere for another 2-3 weeks, just my opinion.

Have you looked at Models? All models show the High Moving out and weakening.

[South Texas Storms]

Until the ridge does retreat, anything is certainly heading West to deep south Texas or Mexico. I don't believe the ridge is going anywhere for another 2-3 weeks, just my opinion.

Have you looked at Models? All models show the High Moving out and weakening.

KFDM what do you think about this possible TC developing in the western GOM?

[Tireman4]

Until the ridge does retreat, anything is certainly heading West to deep south Texas or Mexico. I don't believe the ridge is going anywhere for another 2-3 weeks, just my opinion.

Have you looked at Models? All models show the High Moving out and weakening.

Agreed. Every model shows it moving out and weakening. This is also with the new injestion of upper air stats from last week. I would definitely say the High Pressure Ridge of Death is on the move this week.

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[Portastorm]

I'm loving me some GFS and NAM!!

Now if only King Euro would come on board. Captain Obvious says we could really use a depression or low-grade TS here in Texas.

[South Texas Storms]

I'm loving me some GFS and NAM!!

Now if only King Euro would come on board. Captain Obvious says we could really use a depression or low-grade TS here in Texas.

Actually Porta, I think a tropical wave would be better for us as the rain would be more widespread. If a tropical cyclone develops and moves into Louisiana, we would get pretty much nothing here being on the west side of the system.

[Tireman4]

I'm loving me some GFS and NAM!!

Now if only King Euro would come on board. Captain Obvious says we could really use a depression or low-grade TS here in Texas.

I thought I saw Captain Obvious doing a chicken dance this past weekend? Maybe it was the heat getting to my head...LOL

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Until the ridge does retreat, anything is certainly heading West to deep south Texas or Mexico. I don't believe the ridge is going anywhere for another 2-3 weeks, just my opinion.

Have you looked at Models? All models show the High Moving out and weakening.

KFDM what do you think about this possible TC developing in the western GOM?

I think there's a decent chance. Conditions aloft down the line look favorable..This is what Texas needs...A TD Or TS!!!

[Portastorm]

I'm loving me some GFS and NAM!!

Now if only King Euro would come on board. Captain Obvious says we could really use a depression or low-grade TS here in Texas.

Actually Porta, I think a tropical wave would be better for us as the rain would be more widespread. If a tropical cyclone develops and moves into Louisiana, we would get pretty much nothing here being on the west side of the system.

True ... but the 12z GFS parks the low just to the southeast of Brownsville. The circulation of said low would sling copious amounts of moisture into much of Texas.