Plains Tornado Outbreak 4/14-15

[NCtraveler]

Situation for Friday and especially Saturday looks dire... I don't know about comparing it to the 4/27 outbreak, but this looks pretty dangerous in its own right. Something important to note here, IMO, is that the threat will persist overnight for long-tracked, significant tornadoes. 5/24, 5/22, 4/27, 4/14-4/16, none were at night. Even if this outbreak is not absolutely catastrophic, we may see a higher death toll because of the timing.

I'd say it's about time to sound the alarm bells. "Leave the TV on when you go to sleep tonight" just isn't going to cut it for this one, if the current scenario pans out.

[Cyclenall]

"Fast moving long tracked strong tornadoes after dark."

Situation for Friday and especially Saturday looks dire... I don't know about comparing it to the 4/27 outbreak, but this looks pretty dangerous in its own right. Something important to note here, IMO, is that the threat will persist overnight for long-tracked, significant tornadoes. 5/24, 5/22, 4/27, 4/14-4/16, none were at night. Even if this outbreak is not absolutely catastrophic, we may see a higher death toll because of the timing.

I'd say it's about time to sound the alarm bells. "Leave the TV on when you go to sleep tonight" just isn't going to cut it for this one, if the current scenario pans out.

Yes, the top quote is the worst case scenario in a nutshell for high death tolls. I think I prefer the main tornado outbreak part to be during daytime hours by far for many reasons but its possible it will just continue well into overnight without one time-frame dominating over another which is nearly unprecedented as far as I know. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes one of the worst tornado outbreaks of all time for night time. Its incredibly rare for a massive tornado outbreak to occur in the middle of the night despite recent smaller events bringing devastating results after dark. I'm not sure what single component turned more attention to night time for this but nevertheless its looking bad.

BTW, leaving your TV on at night when you go to sleep is really silly and has never made any sense. Not everyone owns a TV, has one where they sleep, and it won't alert you if the power goes out plus there is no guarantee you would even wake up in time!

Today doesn't look too bad. Tomorrow might see some, but Saturday looks scary. Be ready folks in the area! Last Day 3 MDT? April 27, 2011 - and we ALL know what happened that day.

You must have a crystal ball because that is exactly what happened.

On a different note, I just downloaded and installed GRLevel3 for the first time and was waiting until a major severe weather event was forecast. I couldn't figure out for a long time which version to get (now 4 versions that are similar ). I finally went with Level3 because most people seem to use that one and has lots of "add-ons". After using it and playing around, I was blown away. Its perfect, should have downloaded it last year. It has such fantastic customization and seamless, fluid control. The things I don't like is no composite radar of the CONUS (really, this needs that and regions (map) shown all at once) and in general all the features of 2, 3, AE, and E all into one package. Better tab management too. Here are some questions to people who have GRLevel3:

1. What radar tilt is "standard"? My guess is the lowest one (0.50º).
2. The countdown timer on the bottom right corner randomly changes different colours (red, yellow) when closer to 0 however there is no set time when that starts...that too is random. Why?
3. How many levels of DBz (increments) does NEXRAD Level III data have? I see different scales going from 0 to 95 DBz on GRLevelx. I know you can customize the colour palette of that.
4. The VWP window option, what is that? Wind barbs for what?
5. Can you save entire loops?

[TwisterFanatic]

Day 2 high risk for Saturday. Wow.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... k_0600.gif

[Texas Snowman]

Day 2 high risk for Saturday. Wow.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... k_0600.gif

Yup, that's looking more and more ominous.

Kind of thing where the terms "Particularly Dangerous Situation," "tornado emergency," and "violent tornado" might get tossed out on Saturday.

Hopefully some kind of monkey wrench gets thrown in this or this may be a big-time outbreak. Wichita, OKC, and maybe Topeka, look out.

[Texas Snowman]

Reed Timmer is amped about this. On his Facebook page a short while ago:

"HIGH RISK already issued for the day 2 SPC outlook for Saturday. LIFE THREATENING outbreak across parts of Kansas through central Oklahoma to as far south as north Texas. I have never seen a setup like this in years. STAY TUNED."

[Texas Snowman]

Here's the Day 2 probability outlook. Much of Oklahoma and Kansas are in no-man's land on this chart.

[Cyclenall]

Unbelievable and Historical:

SPC AC 130602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX...CNTRL
AND WRN OK...CNTRL AND ERN KS...SE NEB...NW MO AND FAR SW IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO
VALLEY...UPPER MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...

TORNADO OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS NWD INTO THE
MID-MO VALLEY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS FOUR CORNERS
REGION SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD
INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS ECNTRL KS...CNTRL
OK INTO NW TX. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

NAM AND NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA
KS SWD TO AROUND OKLAHOMA CITY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 3000
J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 60 TO 75 KT RANGE. IN
ADDITION...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGE AND LOOPED WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES
IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 400 M2/S2 WHICH IS IDEAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES
AND A TORNADO OUTBREAK APPEARS LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES SHOULD EXIST SATURDAY EVENING FROM SALINA SWD
TO OKLAHOMA CITY. 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM WILL
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST DUE TO THE EXPECTED INTENSE NATURE OF THE STORMS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. MANY OF
THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE.
IN SPITE OF THIS...THE MODELS DIMINISH THE CAP ACROSS THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON SO THIS BRINGS THE MODELS INTO
QUESTION. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS DRIVE A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS CNTRL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING MANY
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE WITH STORMS INITIATING SWD WITH TIME EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THESE FACTORS
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD PRODUCE AND ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFOS
WICHITA...NORMAN...TOPEKA...TULSA AND DODGE CITY...A HIGH RISK WILL
BE ISSUED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH-END LIFE THREATENING EVENT
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.

...MID-MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NEB WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH STORMS EXPANDING NWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH A DRYLINE LOCATED IN ECNTRL NEB. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND EWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL
LIKELY HAVE AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SATURDAY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE REGION...THE GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTING THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST
ACROSS SERN NEB...SW IA...NW MO AND ERN KS WHERE A MODERATE RISK IS
LOCATED.

...NW TX/WCNTRL TX...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL FORECASTS
DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE DURING THE
EVENING FROM WRN OK SSWWD ACROSS NW TX INTO WCNTRL TX. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 INCH OR GREATER HAIL DUE
TO THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING
THE EVENING SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 04/13/2012

Very, very strong wording for the 2nd only Day 2 High Risk. They mention "likely tornado outbreak" many times in that discussion and "life-threatening" which I can't remember seeing before but I don't remember these discos very well anyways. That image for the Probability hatched area that shows 60%, WILD!!!

[Texas Snowman]

Somebody might want to start working on the Wikipedia page for this one...

[WeatherGuesser]

Only the 2nd ever Day 2 High:

April 14, 2012 Oklahoma, Kansas [72] Second High Risk to be issued on Day 2 (the day before the event)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_SPC_high-risk_days

[WeatherGuesser]

Texas Snowman, is your avatar REALLY almost 900Kb ? (881.37 KB (902,520 bytes))

[Texas Snowman]

Texas Snowman, is your avatar REALLY almost 900Kb ? (881.37 KB (902,520 bytes))

Ooops! Not any more...

[BlueIce]

BTW still a moderate outlook for Sunday as well. I have never seen anything like this for Central Oklahoma.

Edit: it appears that the SPC had overlap and had not removed the old images. Strike that from the record.

[Extratropical94]

I do only see a slight risk for today and sunday, no moderate.

[cycloneye]

Cyclenall,I edited the title of thread to add the historical High Risk for Saturday.

[apocalypt-flyer]

BOOM. This is gonna be nasty no matter which way you look at it.

[KatDaddy]

Hope everyone in OK and KS are listening to the media for this upcoming event. Its been awhile since reading morning AFDs gave me the chills. This is going to be a very dangerous, life threatening, and rapidly developing tornado outbreak. I will be warning family and friends in those areas via Facebook and will be watching ChaserTV live feeds.

[CrazyC83]

NEVER has a High Risk been issued this far out (on the initial Day 2). Only once has it been issued on Day 2 period.

This looks REALLY horrible folks, today is a good day to prepare! EXTREMELY DANGEROUS setup!

[cycloneye]

NOAA Press Conference at 1 PM CDT about High Risk for Saturday

Having a press conference one day before a big severe weather event is another first or it has occured before?

Severe weather is expected in the central U.S. through this coming weekend, and tornadoes and large hail could be especially threatening on Saturday. This severe weather is expected in a region where the National Weather Service has already equipped many of its Doppler radars with Dual Polarization technology, which can better detect when and where tornadoes are on the ground. Parts of this region are also testing stronger “call-to-action” wording in tornado warnings to further help protect lives and create a more weather-ready nation.

WHAT:
Media briefing on severe weather expected in the central U.S., and steps the National Weather Service has taken since last year’s destructive tornado season.

WHEN:
Friday, April 13; 1 p.m. CT / 2 p.m. ET

WHO:
Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director, NOAA’s National Weather Service
Russ Schneider, Ph.D., director, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center

NOAA Press Conference Advisory

[CrazyC83]

Somebody might want to start working on the Wikipedia page for this one...

An article BEFORE it happens would be deleted immediately. There hasn't been anything significant yet.

[Bunkertor]

I´ve got no clue what the Saturdays Scenario differs from previous bad setups