Post-Sandy Nor'easter - November 7-8

[CrazyC83]

Recon now flying:

000
URNT15 KNHC 061909
AF303 01WSA TRACK65 HDOB 01 20121106
185930 3024N 08856W 0145 00011 0160 +174 +078 360000 000 /// /// 03
190000 3024N 08856W 0145 00012 0160 +179 +075 360000 000 /// /// 03
190030 3024N 08856W 0145 00011 0159 +181 +073 360000 000 /// /// 03
190100 3024N 08856W 0145 00011 0158 +187 +072 360000 000 /// /// 03
190130 3024N 08856W 0145 00010 0158 +186 +072 360000 000 /// /// 03
190200 3024N 08856W 0144 00011 0158 +181 +073 360000 000 /// /// 03
190230 3024N 08856W 0139 00010 0155 +163 +083 327005 010 /// /// 06
190300 3025N 08855W 0049 00082 0145 +142 +077 326012 015 /// /// 03
190330 3026N 08854W 9819 00268 0140 +121 +069 324012 014 /// /// 03
190400 3028N 08854W 9398 00633 0137 +089 +062 337013 015 /// /// 03
190430 3029N 08854W 9063 00932 0134 +073 +033 325016 019 /// /// 03
190500 3031N 08855W 8686 01288 0139 +055 -018 314020 020 /// /// 03
190530 3032N 08855W 8298 01658 0141 +037 -073 313021 022 /// /// 03
190600 3034N 08855W 7981 01980 0131 +042 -125 306018 020 /// /// 03
190630 3035N 08854W 7661 02316 0119 +038 -169 302020 021 /// /// 03
190700 3037N 08852W 7384 02618 0101 +036 -220 296023 023 /// /// 03
190730 3037N 08850W 7150 02880 0105 +020 -235 295024 024 /// /// 03
190800 3038N 08848W 7035 03013 0111 +010 -244 292025 025 /// /// 03
190830 3038N 08845W 6955 03094 0095 +008 -261 292026 027 /// /// 03
190900 3039N 08842W 6652 03450 0084 -009 -296 293029 031 /// /// 03
$$
;

[wxman57]

The storm doesn't exist yet, so not much to recon. It gets going tomorrow morning.

[CrazyC83]

Very strong winds way aloft so there is plenty of energy...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pressure is already dropping rapidly at the bouys in the gulf stream.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=EST

[CrazyC83]

Pressure rapidly falling as well per Recon, although the dropsondes will be most valuable given the very high altitude.

[wxman57]

There are PLENTY of surface obs off the East U.S. Coast where the low is forming. The recon will be more helpful in sampling the atmosphere higher up to determine rain/snow lines for tomorrow. Surface obs indicate a weak low center is forming about 150 miles SE of the Carolinas this afternoon. It's another 24hrs before it really gets cranking. Probably 40-50 mph with gusts above 60 mph in the same coastal areas hit hard by Sandy. Snow to the coast, but questionable how much accumulates. Miserable day for all up there.

[ATCcane]

I'm in Atlantic City for the next week and a half. Hotel is probably 5 miles from the ocean but no more than a half mile to some of the inland bay/marshy areas. Seems as though we could be in for a pretty good storm here. Has even been some talk of snow almost all the way to the coast. More concerned about the winds/power outages myself.

Wxman57, if you have time for some thoughts about the impact in the Atlantic City area i'd like to hear them.

[wxman57]

I'm in Atlantic City for the next week and a half. Hotel is probably 5 miles from the ocean but no more than a half mile to some of the inland bay/marshy areas. Seems as though we could be in for a pretty good storm here. Has even been some talk of snow almost all the way to the coast. More concerned about the winds/power outages myself.

Wxman57, if you have time for some thoughts about the impact in the Atlantic City area i'd like to hear them.

Much will depend on how close the low center gets to the coast as far as precip amounts and types. As is typical with nor'easters, the farther offshore it tracks, the less the wind but the greater the chance of snow to the coast that may accumulate. That said, there is considerable model agreement that you'll see NE winds in the 30-45 mph range sustained tomorrow afternoon/evening along with gusts to 50-60 mph.

There is good model agreement on precip amounts of about an inch in Atlantic City. Question is, an inch of rain or a mixture of several inches of snow, sleet and rain or possibly more snow and less rain? Can't determine that yet. One thing IS certain - it will be a very nasty day for the Mid Atlantic coast from Chesapeake Bay north through southern New England tomorrow and Thursday (more north). There will likely be additional power outages throughout the region.

Tidal surge along the NJ coast may reach 3-4 feet above normal, which is a little more than half of Sandy's surge. However, considering the current state of the coast (lack of any dune protection), the impact may be severe.

I think I've changed my mind about what I'd rather face - a hurricane followed by weeks of no power in 90+ deg weather or weeks of now power following Sandy with more cold, wind and even snow. I'll choose the heat.

[CrazyC83]

Recon is showing winds over 90 kt at the high levels. That really suggests that the energy is there and waiting to unload once it is able to get down.

Update: 103 kt at flight level. Useless as a surface calculation, but shows the longer term potential.

[ATCcane]

Thanks Wxman. There is always some excitement about a storm by us weather enthusiasts. But this certainly has the potential to inflict more misery on this area that isn't needed right now.

Growing up in the south and living in Texas for the last 24years, I have only seen the effects of Nor Easters on the news. I'll admit that witnessing one first hand will be interesting....as long as the power stays on. The hotel where I'm staying lost power for 24 hours during Sandy.

I'll try to give some updates throughout the event...

[Sanibel]

Try it from Cape Cod if you want a good taste.

[brunota2003]

Say hello to Winter Storm Athena.

[angelwing]

Great a storm named after one of my on line nicknames

[CrazyC83]

Those names are totally unofficial though.

[CrazyC83]

We should NOT use the term Athena here IMO.

[summersquall]

We should NOT use the term Athena here IMO.

"The National Weather Service will not be referring to today's Nor'easter as "Athena". They put out this internal directive: "The NWS does not use named winter storms in our products. Please refrain from using the term Athena in any of our products."
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2289

[ATCcane]

So far here in Atlantic City it's been mostly light rain.... The intensity has picked up some in the last half hour. Temps are in the mid 30s. The airport did report light snow earlier but all I've seen is rain. Winds are steady at 10 to 20 but nothing to write home about yet. I'm not on the immediate coast so the winds are likely a little higher there.

The weather enthusiast side of me says ho hum...so far anyway. The sensible side of me realizes that the folks along the coast of NJ don't need anymore headaches from this

[ATCcane]

About 5 minutes after I hit enter on the other post, snow began mixing with the rain. It's now changed to all snow. Big, wet, and heavy snowflakes. Still very little wind. I'm guessing the low is tracking a little further east thus the reason for the changeover to snow here and the lighter winds...

[wxman57]

Strongest winds are staying off the coast of New Jersey. They're hitting north of the low across soutehrn MA westward to eastern Long Island. Piling up water north of Long Island as forecast.

Wind speeds at Buzzard's Bay (south of MA/CT border) up to 52 kts gusting 58 kts:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=buzm3

[itsamberduh]

We were only supposed to get rain here in Eastern, MA, but the snow is starting to accumulate. The lawn is nearly covered, I'd say about an inch already.