ATL: INVEST 92L

[Fego]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

92L now has a floater.

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[Annie Oakley]

So far, this is one amusing thread lol.....

[SeminoleWind]

WOW this one looks good. at least right now anyway. What are the reasonable expectations for development from this?

[HURAKAN]

there is no post-season upgrade for tropical depressions, therefore, unless the NHC finds evidence of a well-define low level and gale-force winds, I doubt there will be an upgrade ... shear should now take care of it

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ANDREA...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED TODAY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ozonepete]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time= shear doping in area decreasing symbol on map

What I don't get with this is how it is still intact now after going through 35 knots of wind shear leading up to present. I wonder if these maps are even valid sometimes.

They should just get the name Berry out of the way now, can't take the name seriously lol.

Hi Cycle. Happy 2013 season! You should know by now (though it's amazing how many people don't) that those shear charts and especially shear forecasts are usually somewhere between not too bad and dreadful. We have almost no actual readings of mid and upper level winds out there so what's actually going on with shear can be entirely different from what we think. This is a clear example that we are only guessing as to how much shear it's undergoing or will undergo. I personally look at the mid and upper level cloud winds for a rough idea and hardly ever trust the CIMSS or SHIPS shear charts very much, and they "try" really hard.

And btw, it's Barry, not Berry, lol.

[ROCK]

it barfed out its LLC which is not completely exposed....maybe post season upgrade but I think this guy is done....

[Ivanhater]

That is an interesting outlook from the NHC. "Near tropical storm force". Clearly defined low and arguably producing tropical force sustained winds....Either way, very interesting for June and most likely a sign of things to come

[floridasun78]

it barfed out its LLC which is not completely exposed....maybe post season upgrade but I think this guy is done....

i dont think it be post season upgrade

[ozonepete]

That is an interesting outlook from the NHC. "Near tropical storm force". Clearly defined low and arguably producing tropical force sustained winds....Either way, very interesting for June and most likely a sign of things to come

Lol. You took the words right of my mouth. They practically defined it as a tropical storm! I would be in the camp that thinks they'll upgrade it post-season but that might not be necessary... this has such a strong low-level circulation that it may survive long enough to re-intensify somewhere down the road anyway.

[northjaxpro]

That is an interesting outlook from the NHC. "Near tropical storm force". Clearly defined low and arguably producing tropical force sustained winds....Either way, very interesting for June and most likely a sign of things to come

Lol. You took the words right of my mouth. They practically defined it as a tropical storm! I would be in the camp that thinks they'll upgrade it post-season but that might not be necessary... this has such a strong low-level circulation that it may survive long enough to re-intensify somewhere down the road anyway.

I know this has been stated several times, but it rings so true in this case. If this had been late July or August, there is no question in my mind that NHC would have at the very least tagged this system a TD at a minimum. It is now a mute point as shear likely will rip this system apart. I hedge to believe there will be a post-season analysis on this system of a possible no name storm. There seems to a system like this to pop up seemingly each season lately.

[cycloneye]

That is an interesting outlook from the NHC. "Near tropical storm force". Clearly defined low and arguably producing tropical force sustained winds....Either way, very interesting for June and most likely a sign of things to come

Lol. You took the words right of my mouth. They practically defined it as a tropical storm! I would be in the camp that thinks they'll upgrade it post-season but that might not be necessary... this has such a strong low-level circulation that it may survive long enough to re-intensify somewhere down the road anyway.

I know this has been stated several times, but it rings so true in this case. If this had been late July or August, there is no question in my mind that NHC would have at the very least tagged this system a TD at a minimum. It is now a mute point as shear likely will rip this system apart. I hedge to believe there will be a post season anaysis on this system of a possible no name storm. There seems to a system like this to pop up each season lately

And yes,there was another 92L in 2010 that was very organized but eventually faded.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2013060700, , BEST, 0, 143N, 481W, 30, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[brunota2003]

I looked at the supplemental data for Buoy 41041, and found 1 minute wind speeds of between 33 and 38 mph earlier. Given that it cannot sample the entire circulation, I would have to say winds of at least 40 mph are most likely ongoing (or were earlier).

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/41041.supl

Code: Select all

2013 06 06 20 50     MM    MM    15   120  2027
2013 06 06 18 50     MM    MM    17   120  1837
2013 06 06 17 50     MM    MM    15    90  1749

Wind speed convertor:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/windspeed.shtml

The winds are in m/s (15 and 17).

Next buoys in the path:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41nt0
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[greenkat]

...A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...

Ridiculous, why is this not even a TD???

[Hurricaneman]

I have a feeling that if Andrea weren't there this would have been classified, a case of priorities

[cycloneye]

I have a feeling that if Andrea weren't there this would have been classified, a case of priorities

I don't think that is the case as in past seasons,they had to work with 2-3 systems at the same time.

[cycloneye]

GFS ensembles.

[Ivanhater]

Could be headed to the Bahama region

[ozonepete]

I have a feeling that if Andrea weren't there this would have been classified, a case of priorities

I don't think that is the case as in past seasons,they had to work with 2-3 systems at the same time.

That's exactly right, Luis. I've seen them go either way on systems like this, whether there was only one or a few at the same time, and I don't ever remember being dissatisfied with their final call after the season was over and they presented all of the evidence.