WPAC: WUTIP - Tropical Depression

[euro6208]

Wutip now the 8th typhoon of the season...

here are the stats for the 2013 season....


19 Tropical Storms
8 Typhoons
3 Major Typhoons
-two category 4
-one category 5

*Including Wutip

[HurricaneBill]

19 Tropical Storms
8 Typhoons
3 Major Typhoons
-two category 4
-one category 5

And a partridge in a pear tree!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Typhoon Wutip has likely become a major hurricane-equivalent. We'll give JTWC a few hours to upgrade to Category 2-equivalency...

[supercane4867]

Up to 90kt on the ATCF

WP, 20, 2013092900, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1124E, 90, 956, XX, 34, NEQ, 95, 80, 80, 95, 1003, 200, 10, 0, 0, W, 0, X, 270, 5, WUTIP

[stormkite]

Wutip
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Won't be suprized to see another storm form southEast of Wutip.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[supercane4867]

Paracel Islands Radar



Weather station there recorded lowest pressure of 964mb this morning as the eye passed near by

[stormkite]

Japan Meteorological Agency

TYPHOON WUTIP (T1321)
16.8ºN 112.5ºE - 70 knots 965 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM JST, Typhoon Wutip (965 hPa) located at 16.8N 112.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
210 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.2N 109.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.8N 105.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Laos
72 HRS: 17.2N 101.8E - Tropical Depression Overland Thailand

[euro6208]

category 2 typhoon 90 knots

WDPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST OF DA
NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. TY 20W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 55
KNOTS TO 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A 10-NM ROUND EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM PADDLE ISLAND ALSO INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SYMMETRIC EYEWALL OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS WITH A PRONOUNCED
TROCHOIDAL TRACK MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. THE 28/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH HAD WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), IS
FILLING AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN CHINA AS EXPECTED.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE STR IS RE-BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND TY 20W
IS NOW ACCELERATING WESTWARD AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
105 KNOTS BASED ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE.
B. TY 20W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH A 85 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. TY 20W IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN GOOD POLEWARD VENTING THROUGH TAU 12 AND IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, POLEWARD
VENTING WILL WEAKEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER-LEVEL STR BUILDS INTO EASTERN CHINA.
TY 20W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 12 THEN, AFTER MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 30, WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. TY 20W IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR
TAU 48. BASED ON THE IMPROVED, TIGHT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMIC
MODELS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH
IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

this is the most organized category 2 90 knot system i've ever seen...10 nm eye?

KNES and PGTW has this at 6.0= 115 knots category 4!

MET BROKE CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

It's being underestimated at the moment...

[stormkite]

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WMO
TYPHOON WUTIP ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 113.0E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2013 16.3N 113.0E INTENSE
12UTC 29.09.2013 16.7N 111.7E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2013 17.5N 109.9E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.09.2013 18.4N 107.7E INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2013 19.3N 104.9E INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Below HCHMF model suggests a mature typhoon will develop nice eye banding.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Looking very nasty now.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
TY 20W REMAINS AN INTENSE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER,
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND THE OVERALL AREAL EXPANSE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED
BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING IN DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY DECLINING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN PROVIDING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST HAS BEEN BUILDING SOUTHWARD AND HAS
STARTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TY 20W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. TY 20W IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN GOOD POLEWARD VENTING THROUGH TAU 12 BUT
AFTERWARD, POLEWARD VENTING WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST MOVES POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM, CREATING INCREASED
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF TY 20W. TY
20W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18, AND
WEAKEN RAPIDLY THEREAFTER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. TY 20W IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD AND SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 36. BASED
ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

And now the eyewall replacement comes into play, Wutip will have little time to strengthen again after it complete

Based on the brief T6.0 analysis with lower ADT numbers I say peak intensity was around 105kt

[euro6208]

Nearing landfall

[HurricaneBill]

Landfall looks like it will be in Quang Binh province, which includes the city of Dong Hoi.

[stormkite]

looking at this lattest image i think intensity level may have been underestimated.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO, I think that this might end up as a tropical depression in the Bay of Bengal.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

looking at this lattest image i think intensity level may have been underestimated.

This is no cat 2, but a cat 3/4!

[Alyono]

That is in no way, shape, or form a cat 3 or 4!

In fact, I estimated the intensity at landfall to be 80 KT

[Dave C]

I agree Alyono, outer eyewall open on the east side. It needed more time to complete the process and tighten up.

[euro6208]

FINAL WARNING...


WTPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 105.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 105.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.0N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.3N 99.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 105.0E.
TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTHWEST OF DA
NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TY 20W HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS STARTING TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE BECAUSE OF THE LAND INTERACTION. A 200954Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE EROSION OF THE SYSTEM AS CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IS RAPIDLY DECREASING. TY 20W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND QUICKLY
DISSIPATE DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE ROUGH TERRAIN ACROSS
LAOS AND VIETNAM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
21W (SEPAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN