![Image](http://i.imgur.com/n6xdU66.gif)
WDPN33 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (KULAP) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED HYBRID/SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND REMAINS POSITIONED UNDER A BROAD UPPER-LOW YET
HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS OF LESS THAN 50NM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 220652Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THIS MICROWAVE EYE STRUCTURE, ALONG WITH
RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWING 45-50 KNOT WINDS AND A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS, SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 50
KNOTS. TS 09W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. DUE TO THE LIKELY BINARY INTERACTION
WITH TS 07W, PLEASE REVIEW THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE FOR TS
07W.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 09W SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 48, TS 09W
WILL APPROACH TS 07W WITHIN 400NM AND WILL BEGIN BINARY INTERACTION.
AS 09W CLOSES TO 240 NM BY TAU 72 AND 215 NM BY TAU 96, IT WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 09W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WHILE
ACCELERATING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF TS
07W. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TS 07W AND
THE EXPECTED DISRUPTION OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.//
NNNN