Another GOM Disturbance

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Dean4Storms
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#41 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 01, 2017 12:56 pm

RL3AO wrote:No mention at 2pm. NHC is not impressed.


They were not impressed with Emily beforehand either.....
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#42 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:08 pm

Is that a naked eye like swirl emerging at the north edge of convection?
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#43 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:09 pm

You can see the convection vomiting out a small eddy near 26.5N 87.8W. Pretty harsh N-NE shear over that area.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#44 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:11 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Is that a naked eye like swirl emerging at the north edge of convection?


Yup. Spinning like a top when you rapidly loop the G-16 vis imagery.

In fact, if you look very closely, it's pulling along a very small, but persistent convective plume, to the SE of the center, that's sheared pretty badly toward the SSW.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#45 Postby stormreader » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:14 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:Would this move Eastward along the front like Emily did or with the front expected to retreat Northward, could it affect people further north?


That's the question. I don't see much movement in the area at this point. If this system does persist it may have detached from the old frontal flow (ENE). Thus a normal climo scenario might mean a NW or NNW movement for a system organizing in that location. Let's just see if it persists.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#46 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:18 pm

stormreader wrote:
bamajammer4eva wrote:Would this move Eastward along the front like Emily did or with the front expected to retreat Northward, could it affect people further north?


That's the question. I don't see much movement in the area at this point. If this system does persist it may have detached from the old frontal flow (ENE). Thus a normal climo scenario might mean a NW or NNW movement for a system organizing in that location. Let's just see if it persists.


There is a large upper low over the Great Lakes in a couple of days that will bring another boundary down that will probably wash out. Still there will be SW winds that should start cranking ahead of it. I can only see ENE or E toward Florida if that upper low ends up as forecast.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#47 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:25 pm

Well, its probably worth a mention by the NHC. The shear is high but that hasn't stopped many many systems from forming in the gulf. It clearly has a circ. though that eddy is not very expansive compared to the overall broad turning around it and the eddy might not be to the surface as there is some differential motions in the lower cloud deck from the eddy. . just like with anything else convection needs to keep refiring especially in these sheared environments to get development despite the "technical" argument that it meets the requirements.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#48 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:28 pm

Hopefully we get a mention @ 8pm. Probably just waiting to see how it holds up for another six hours.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#49 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:30 pm

:uarrow:

Yes, Steve, that is correct. Whatever comes of this next disturbance in the GOM will likely follow in Emily's footsteps on a E-NE direction as another trough comes down into the Eastern U.S. by the end of this week.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#50 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:42 pm

Not that cut and dry as to potential movement of this possible system.....timing is everything. IMO

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

Yes, Steve, that is correct. Whatever comes of this next disturbance in the GOM will likely follow in Emily's footsteps on a E-NE direction as another trough comes down into the Eastern U.S. by the end of this week.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#51 Postby TexWx » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:48 pm

I just wonder, if this does begin to wrap up a little, how much moisture this pulls away from Texas.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#52 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 01, 2017 1:58 pm

I'm starting to doubt it wins the battle with the lower and mid level dry air.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#53 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:00 pm

You could be right.


Dean4Storms wrote:I'm starting to doubt it wins the battle with the lower and mid level dry air.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#54 Postby CFLHurricane » Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:03 pm

The Gulf giveth and The Gulf taketh away!
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#55 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:03 pm

Hopefully the dry air and shear will continue.
We saw how quickly Emily spun up and the middle of the gulf would not be a good place for a repeat performance.

No low surface pressure recordings from the buoys currently.
Mid gulf buoy reported a 1013 mb low with the background about 1024 mb earlier. Might have just been the thunderstorms we are watching.
Last edited by Nimbus on Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#56 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:09 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Not that cut and dry as to potential movement of this possible system.....timing is everything. IMO

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

Yes, Steve, that is correct. Whatever comes of this next disturbance in the GOM will likely follow in Emily's footsteps on a E-NE direction as another trough comes down into the Eastern U.S. by the end of this week.


This is true. Nothing in weather is completely cut and dry. We do not have another established Low Pressure initialized just yet as well. We wait and see what materializes.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#57 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:23 pm

Emily had way more shear and dry air to contend with, but she was also partially subtropical, so there were other forcing mechanisms to get her spinning. Never the less, there is still some turning and convergence with our new blob, so it might still go. 12Z CMC 850 mb forecast shows a decent vort forming soon and moving into the big bend of FL
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#58 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:28 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Not that cut and dry as to potential movement of this possible system.....timing is everything. IMO

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow:

Yes, Steve, that is correct. Whatever comes of this next disturbance in the GOM will likely follow in Emily's footsteps on a E-NE direction as another trough comes down into the Eastern U.S. by the end of this week.


I do agree there are some alternative scenarios. The ones I see are a piece hangs back west and rains in SE TX; a piece moves NE into South Central LA ahead of the front or something does follow Emily (sort of) toward NE FL. Obviously it could be nothing because the mesoscales never show anything strong and just show sort of jumping low pressure. So maybe there are different micro-areas that could have temporary spin ups.
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#59 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 01, 2017 2:34 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:Emily had way more shear and dry air to contend with, but she was also partially subtropical, so there were other forcing mechanisms to get her spinning. Never the less, there is still some turning and convergence with our new blob, so it might still go. 12Z CMC 850 mb forecast shows a decent vort forming soon and moving into the big bend of FL


But Emily was racing SSE away from the dry air into plentiful moisture where this is not, big difference!
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Re: Another GOM Disturbance

#60 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:17 pm

Well that has pretty much disintegrated!
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