WPAC: HAGUPIT - Tropical Depression

[1900hurricane]

Obs so far support about 40 kt 10 minute winds/45 kt 1 minute winds.

[1900hurricane]

Probably about to start getting the strongest winds in Ishigaki.

[NotoSans]

JMA says 990mb/55kt following latest observations.

[Ed_2001]

991mb observed on Northern Iriomote at 3am. Within the edge of the eye right now.

[1900hurricane]

Next pressure ob at Iriomote is probably going to be fairly representative of overall minimum pressure.

[1900hurricane]

Next pressure ob at Iriomote is probably going to be fairly representative of overall minimum pressure.

Was about 990 mb, which is about 50 kt when using KZC. That line up fairly well with the peak gust of 30.8 m/s at Ibaruma, Ishigaki.

[1900hurricane]

Hey check this out, the JTWC estimate is 50 kt/990 mb!

WP, 03, 2020080218, , BEST, 0, 242N, 1240E, 50, 990, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 80, 50, 65, 1005, 165, 30, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAGUPIT, D,
WP, 03, 2020080218, , BEST, 0, 242N, 1240E, 50, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 35, 0, 0, 1005, 165, 30, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAGUPIT, D,

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/homosapieninhk/status/1290015946325688321

[Ed_2001]

Iriomote now down to 989.2mb. Looks like the backside is more severe, Ishigakijima getting hurricane force gusts now at 35.7m/s (80mph)

[1900hurricane]

Iriomote now down to 989.2mb. Looks like the backside is more severe, Ishigakijima getting hurricane force gusts now at 35.7m/s (80mph)

Those are good for an intensity closer to 55 to maybe even 60 kt. It's probably been strengthening/deepening the entire time it's been making its passage.

[Ed_2001]

Live webcam on Ishigakijima. Fairly rough out there. Not sure about the out-of-place music though
https://youtu.be/LaqL2b5c13Q

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1290037949598326784

[Hayabusa]

5 knots more...

STS 2004 (Hagupit)
Issued at 21:50 UTC, 2 August 2020

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 2 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°35' (24.6°)
E123°40' (123.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area SE 110 km (60 NM)
NW 55 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 330 km (180 NM)
W 165 km (90 NM)

[1900hurricane]

Several 35 m/s gusts on the back side. I'd go probably 60 kt for 00Z.

[doomhaMwx]

That back side definitely packs a punch.

[euro6208]

Time for an upgrade.

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08022223
SATCON: MSLP = 980 hPa MSW = 66 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 66.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 67 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 150 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

[cycloneye]

STS 2004 (Hagupit)
Issued at 01:50 UTC, 3 August 2020

<Analysis at 01 UTC, 3 August>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°00' (25.0°)
E122°50' (122.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 110 km (60 NM)
W 55 km (30 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 330 km (180 NM)
W 165 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 3 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°35' (26.6°)
E121°35' (121.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Storm warning area E 175 km (95 NM)
W 120 km (65 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 4 August>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°35' (28.6°)
E120°35' (120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 5 August>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N34°20' (34.3°)
E120°20' (120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 190 km (105 NM)

[1900hurricane]

I'm impressed it has managed to avoid negative impacts from Taiwan. Must have a small enough circulation that passed just far enough away.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC is also at 60 kt for 00Z, which surface obs clearly supported. Given that happened a few hours earlier though, I don't think it's impossible that it could be on the door of 65 kt now.

WP, 03, 2020080300, , BEST, 0, 250N, 1236E, 60, 983, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 100, 60, 80, 1005, 150, 25, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAGUPIT, D,
WP, 03, 2020080300, , BEST, 0, 250N, 1236E, 60, 983, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1005, 150, 25, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAGUPIT, D,