SPAC: YASA - Post Tropical

[ElectricStorm]

JTWC now forecasting 140kt peak. If there's any good news for Fiji, it's that Yasa isn't forecast to hit at peak intensity, but a Cat 4 landfall will still be devastating.

[aspen]

Between this and Harold, the SPac has had a surprisingly impressive year. Yasa is one of the best looking TCs of 2020, although there's still some debris in the eye, so it could become clearer.

[ElectricStorm]

ADT at 6.7/132kts. Not bad. Raw also at 6.7

[aspen]

There are some outer bands on the 21z microwave pass, but they haven’t fused into a true outer eyewall just yet.

[supercane4867]

Yasa and Zasu

[Nancy Smar]

05P.YASA.140kts.914mb.14.6S.174.1E.

[ElectricStorm]

5th Cat 5 of 2020 globally. Looks amazing on IR

[doomhaMwx]

HURRICANE WARNING 053 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 160054 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 917HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6
SOUTH 174.1 EAST AT 160000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 14.6S 174.1E at 160000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 6 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

...

[InfernoFlameCat]

Is that a CMG ring I see!!!
We could get a -80c ring soon!!!!!!!!!!!

[doomhaMwx]

Yasa has completed a clockwise loop.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yasa has one of the thickest w rings I have ever observed!
Hopefully an EWRC before landfall, otherwise I would have hoped it to intensify more.
Early signs point to an EWRC with Intense banding although that could fall apart...

[IsabelaWeather]

Wow, this is super bad news...

It is highly interesting, I follow a youtuber named Zatara and because of covid they are stuck on the west side of the main island in their catamaran.

But they don't have insurance during the SHEM TC season from 10*S to 30*S. Hopefully they and all of the other people will fare ok with this storm. They have much less protection than the people in Fiji, protocol is to hide out in the mangroves.........

YASA looks incredible on satellite right now, nearly a ring of -80*C Just incredible, I thought La Nina made the SW pacific much less condusive.

I mean, this is a pretty early season storm to be going off this nuts.

What would this be for the Atlantic, Mid July?

[mrbagyo]

These GIF files are quite heavy hehe.

[doomhaMwx]

REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 174.5E.
16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325
NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 95 KNOTS AT 15/00Z TO 140 KNOTS AT 16/00Z.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC
RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 30NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, WITH SPIRAL BANDING OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 152143Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH THE
INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A DEVELOPING SECONDARY EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/KNES/PHFO
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW
INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW AND SST (28-29C) VALUES REMAIN
CONDUCIVE. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS
TO THE EAST. TC 05P WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 140 KNOTS UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 12. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE
TO THE POSSIBLE ERC (SUGGESTED BY THE UW-CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT). AS
TC 05P APPROACHES THE TWO MAJOR ISLANDS OF FIJI, VITI LEVU AND VANUA
LEVU, GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEAR 120 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48 AND PASSAGE OVER THE TWO MAJOR ISLANDS
OF FIJI, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE
EAST IN THE WAKE OF TC 06P. AFTER TAU 72, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN AND LARGE SPREAD
IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05P SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SST VALUES COOL TO 26C AND VWS
INCREASES TO 15-25 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z
IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[aspen]

Nearly a full CMG ring. If the EWRC doesn’t start soon, Yasa could get close to 150 kt before weakening.

[InfernoFlameCat]

My first successful EWRC outlook!!!
Before even an official website !!!
If this EWRC does occur this will be a massive eye. maybe 50-60 NM

[ElectricStorm]

My first successful EWRC outlook!!!
Before even an official website !!!
If this EWRC does occur this will be a massive eye. maybe 50-60 NM

Huh? I haven't seen a microwave pass in a while so I'm not entirely sure, but I don't think an EWRC has started yet. I could be wrong though.

[InfernoFlameCat]

My first successful EWRC outlook!!!
Before even an official website !!!
If this EWRC does occur this will be a massive eye. maybe 50-60 NM

Huh? I haven't seen a microwave pass in a while so I'm not entirely sure, but I don't think an EWRC has started yet. I could be wrong though.

Read the above message above my last post.

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.imgur.com/OPRuXNE.gif

REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 174.5E.
16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325
NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 95 KNOTS AT 15/00Z TO 140 KNOTS AT 16/00Z.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC
RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 30NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, WITH SPIRAL BANDING OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 152143Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITH THE
INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A DEVELOPING SECONDARY EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/KNES/PHFO
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD FLOW
INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW AND SST (28-29C) VALUES REMAIN
CONDUCIVE. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUT
WILL GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS
TO THE EAST. TC 05P WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 140 KNOTS UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 12. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE
TO THE POSSIBLE ERC (SUGGESTED BY THE UW-CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT). AS
TC 05P APPROACHES THE TWO MAJOR ISLANDS OF FIJI, VITI LEVU AND VANUA
LEVU, GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NEAR 120 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48 AND PASSAGE OVER THE TWO MAJOR ISLANDS
OF FIJI, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE
EAST IN THE WAKE OF TC 06P. AFTER TAU 72, ANOTHER STR IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN AND LARGE SPREAD
IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05P SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SST VALUES COOL TO 26C AND VWS
INCREASES TO 15-25 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z
IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

This one.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1339046710799183874