ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Visioen]

First visible

[AlphaToOmega]

From the satellite imagery, there seems to be two competing areas of vorticity. The GFS develops Invest 92L into a weak storm. The ECMWF develops Invest 92L into a bona fide tropical storm. Tropical Storm Claudette also formed despite having multiple competing vortices. This is still likely to develop, for the chances remain higher than 60%; no disturbance highlighted red has failed to develop in the Atlantic this year.

[AlphaToOmega]

1. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms located a
few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with
a tropical wave interacting with a broader surface trough.
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual
development over the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[GCANE]

Seeing pouch characteristics with this.
HIgh-vorticity hot towers along the leading edge.
Strong TPW convergence. Very likely this is closed off.

As I mentioned yesterday, the African Easterly Jet is breaking down.
SAL seems to be more north of this. Not much to its west.

Looks like this may get caught up in an ULL in about 4 days.
Wave to the west may have a better shot as it enters the Carib where an anticyclone is forecast to be anchored.

[AlphaToOmega]

It is still too early to discount the system. Chance are higher than 50% for a reason.

[aspen]

I’m guessing the Euro ensemble’s complete switch of focus to the wave in front of it was a big reason as to why the development odds were lowered. Also, the CIMSS 850mb vorticity map shows a string of vort blobs across the monsoon trough, so it’ll be a bit of a challenge for one of them to close off and break away from the rest.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Even if this doesn't form it at least looks like we are transitioning to those favorable conditions the models have been showing around mid-month. Models are starting to light up after being dormant. This wave has sustained convection better than the last few waves that splashed down. In another 7-10 days I think we really start to see some action.

[AlphaToOmega]

This is a very complicated situation. The ECENS supports development of the the wave in front, but the GEFS supports development of both the wave in front as well as Invest 92L. Either way, a wave is developing.

[ouragans]

Invest 92L
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 06, 2021:

Location: 10.2°N 23.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 90 nm

[wx98]

This is a very complicated situation. The ECENS supports development of the the wave in front, but the GEFS supports development of both the wave in front as well as Invest 92L. Either way, a wave is developing.

I wouldn’t count on either one of them developing just yet. Looks like we’re in wait and see mode.

[Stormybajan]

This is a very complicated situation. The ECENS supports development of the the wave in front, but the GEFS supports development of both the wave in front as well as Invest 92L. Either way, a wave is developing.

I wouldn’t count on either one of them developing just yet. Looks like we’re in wait and see mode.

I agree no model is particularly enthusiastic with 92L, and with the multiple vortices it really is, a wait and see scenario with this. We could have multiple storms over the next 10 days or we could have none, we just dont know

[AlphaToOmega]

Conditions are favorable, and Invest 92L made it to code red once. No code red disturbance has failed to develop in the Atlantic this year. I see no reason why Invest 92L would not develop. Remember we had competing vortices with Pre-Claudette from this year

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

I dont see many vortices rotating, as there is only one seen around 10N-24W that BT has.

[AutoPenalti]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/4672/qCC2Eo.gif

Monsoon trough definitely helping in spinning this up but I don't see the one million vorticities that the GFS has been predicating.

[AlphaToOmega]

The 00Z operational ECMWF does not show a googolplex vortices, which seems to be what is happening here. King Euro is crowned king of all models once again

[cycloneye]

The 00Z operational ECMWF does not show a googolplex vortices, which seems to be what is happening here. King Euro is crowned king of all models once again

Where are them?

[Stormybajan]

The 00Z operational ECMWF does not show a googolplex vortices, which seems to be what is happening here. King Euro is crowned king of all models once again

Where are them?

Think AlphaToOmega is saying that the euro is correctly predicting against the multiple vortices GFS were gfs showing

[AlphaToOmega]

1. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers located a few
hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with
a tropical wave and an associated broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual
development over the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[AlphaToOmega]

It has enough convection. All it needs to do is become a closed low.